Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Dynasty fantasy football is an ever-changing market, being able to spot a breakout early can make all the difference. The best managers are always a few steps ahead of the competition.
With this in mind, we should turn our attention to players primed for breakout performances this year, despite having spent a few seasons in the league already. While third-year breakouts are much rarer than the narrative might have you believe, they do occur — take 2023 Nico Collins, for example. Several players stand out as potential candidates to join this group this year. Below, I dive into a few names I believe have the potential to break out in 2024.
Third-Year Breakout Candidates for 2024
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Since being drafted ninth overall in 2022, Drake London has yet to surpass 1,000 receiving yards or score more than 4 touchdowns in a single season, despite being targeted 227 times in his career. These challenges are not entirely his fault — London has faced the difficulty of a quarterback carousel throughout his career, playing with three quarterbacks (Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke) who aren’t really starting-caliber players at the NFL level. Arthur Smith’s tenure as head coach has further hindered London’s progress. The end result is a top-10 pick who hasn’t had a top-30 half-PPR finish yet in his career.
This season Drake London gets a new offense and quarterback. The addition of Zac Robinson, a Sean McVay disciple, should inject fresh energy into what was a stale offense the past two seasons. In what should be a revamped approach with increased creativity and schemed space, London will be able to leverage his physical attributes and showcase his playmaking abilities. Even more important to this breakout is the arrival of Kirk Cousins. He’s recovering from an Achilles injury, but Cousins has a track record of supporting multiple top fantasy producers during his tenure in Minnesota. Even if he operates at below his previous level, it represents a significant upgrade for London.
The Falcons opted not to add any significant threats to Drake London in the draft or free agency, solidifying his status as the clear No. 1 target in the offense. He is the clear top target in this offense and should see a healthy workload. With the potential for improved touchdown luck and enhanced efficiency within the offense, I anticipate London making a significant leap this year, finally fulfilling the lofty expectations set when he was drafted.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders
Let’s run this one back.
Last year, Jahan Dotson was a popular choice as a breakout candidate, but he fell short of expectations. Dotson struggled from the outset, failing to achieve double-digit half-PPR points until Week 4. He only managed to do so twice more throughout the season, resulting in a modest total of 100.3 half-PPR points. His lone 100-yard game occurred in Week 8 against a weak Philadelphia secondary (the unit that allowed two of Dotson’s three games last year with 10-plus half-PPR points). Despite receiving more targets, he ultimately finished outside the top 40 wide receivers for a second straight year.
With Kliff Kingsbury coming into town, we should expect a much better offensive scheme in Washington. As a rookie, we saw Dotson use his quick release and speed to terrorize defensive backs all over the field, especially in the red zone. With an RPO-heavy offense on the horizon, there will be a consolidation of targets, favoring quick and agile players like Dotson who thrive in such systems.
Given the limited competition, I expect Dotson to emerge as the secondary target behind Terry McLaurin. Add in rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels (who is experienced in running an RPO-heavy scheme), and we have the perfect ingredients for a breakout. This should be a much-improved offense in 2024 and with it will come fantasy production.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills
After an impressive college career at Boise State, in which he amassed over 2,800 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns, Khalil Shakir fell to the fifth round of the 2021 NFL Draft, eventually landing with the Bills. It has been a lackluster career thus far for Shakir, with just 772 yards and three touchdowns in two seasons. We saw signs of progress down the stretch. From Week 7 on last year, he produced 571 of his 611 yards, including two 100-yard games and three games with double-digit half-PPR points. Ultimately, he finished as the WR61 finishing with 93.6 points. Despite the flashes, his lack of usage made it almost impossible to start weekly.
Heading into 2024, Khalil Shakir finds himself in a promising position. With the departures of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Trent Sherfield, the Bills’ wide receiver depth chart has opened up considerably. Despite the additions of Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman, Shakir remains a familiar target for Josh Allen. This familiarity could increase Shakir’s volume, compensating for his lack of elite athleticism.
With a more prominent role in the weekly game plan and improved touchdown opportunities, Shakir has the potential to become a reliable fantasy starter this year. While he may not possess a sky-high ceiling, finishing within the top 36 wide receivers is certainly achievable given his increased involvement in the offense.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos
Greg Dulcich put together an impressive college career, amassing 1,353 yards and 11 touchdowns at UCLA, which he paired with a strong showing at the NFL combine. So it was no surprise on draft day when the Broncos selected him 80th overall. This opened a huge opportunity for him to carve out a significant role as a rookie in an offense hungry for playmakers. Unfortunately, he didn’t follow through on that potential as a rookie, only totaling 411 yards and 2 touchdowns in 10 games, resulting in a lackluster 69.6 half-PPR points and a TE30 finish. On the flip side, his 12.5 yards per reception was a glimmer of hope that with a full-time role he could become a potent fantasy threat.
The worst part for Dulcich is that he has faced persistent injury setbacks since joining the Broncos, missing seven games due to hamstring issues as a rookie and then missed all but two games last year due to a combination of foot and hamstring injuries. This lack of availability has undoubtedly hindered his development to a degree. Dulcich possesses ample talent to overcome these challenges and make a significant impact once he returns to full health.
With Jerry Jeudy’s departure to Cleveland and not much in the way of significant additions (outside rookie fourth-rounder Troy Franklin), the door remains wide open for Dulcich. With this lack of target competition, particularly in the thigh end room, he stands poised to take over a significant role in his third year. It is a real possibility that he becomes the second target within this offense and resembles the 2024 version of Trey McBride.
