Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL knows how to market itself. The league figured out how to turn something as boring as a schedule release into a primetime event that has all of the football world talking. So let’s follow suit and break down some of the biggest fantasy football takeaways from the 2021 NFL schedule release. But before I get into that, just a quick word on the usefulness of fantasy football strength of schedule.
When it comes to fantasy football strength of schedule, my best piece of advice is: Pay it very little mind. It’s eye candy. Sure, strength of schedule can be fun to look at, but there really isn’t much substance. That’s especially true at this time of year where a major of strength of schedule charts are created using last year’s fantasy points allowed.
That approach is excellent at telling you what happened in the past, but we’re concerned about the present and the future in fantasy football. Looking back to last year’s results simply don’t help us on those fronts. Some teams have different coordinators, most teams have different personnel, and individual players can be trending up or down in their career arch. That’s not to mention the fact that once we get into the season, injuries can make a once formidable matchup into a favorable one.
While I wouldn’t recommend heavily weighting strength of schedule on your fantasy football draft board, we can make some observations based on the schedule release. So let’s dive into the five biggest fantasy football takeaways from the 2021 NFL schedule.
Jalen Hurts will get a chance to succeed
The Eagles will almost certainly open the season with Jalen Hurts under center, but he’s far from a lock to be their long-term option. However, Hurts is positioned well heading into 2021. Not only does he now have the reigning Heisman trophy winner in DeVonta Smith, but Hurts also gets a plus draw thanks to the schedule.
Philly kicks off the season against a suspect Falcons secondary that doesn’t look much better off than it was last season. The Eagles also get a reasonably good passing matchup in Week 4 against Kansas City. However, the bread-and-butter section of the schedule is Weeks 7-10. Over that span, Philly gets the Raiders, Lions, Chargers and Broncos. Hurts has a shot of being one of the hottest fantasy quarterbacks over the middle of the season.
Green Bay kicked when it’s down
Not only do we have the lingering cloud of Aaron Rodgers’ future hanging over the Packers, but we also have a schedule that does Green Bay no favors. From Week 12 to Week 16, here’s what they’ll face: Rams, bye, Bears, Ravens, Browns. That’s a brutal stretch right there.
Of course, we shouldn’t use this as a reason to shy away from the likes of Aaron Jones and Davante Adams in our fantasy drafts. The bigger factor for those two is Rodgers. However, I do think we’ll have a resolution on that front long before we reach the heart of 2021 fantasy football draft season.
Najee Harris is going to eat early and often
Art Rooney II told us the Steelers were going to address their run game, and that’s exactly what they did with the first-round selection of Harris. The Alabama product will slide right in as the feature back and is an instant threat for 275-plus touches. That sort of volume is very valuable for fantasy football purposes, but it’s Harris’ schedule that should really get our mouths watering.
Pittsburgh opens the season with the Bills, then gets the Raiders, Bengals and Packers over the first month of the season. All four of those squads had trouble against the run in 2020, so Harris figures to get off to a hot start. Keep in mind that he will have to face the Browns and Ravens twice, so the schedule isn’t a complete pushover, but Harris is setup for success right out of the gate in 2021.
Don’t go overboard with Mike Davis
Sure, the Falcons didn’t draft a running back, so Davis does seem positioned well for the lead job in Atlanta. But let’s not get too far out over our skis on this one. Fantasy players will remember Davis fondly for how admirably he filled in for Christian McCaffrey last season, but let’s not forget that he didn’t even crack 4.0 yards per carry and is entering his age-28 season.
To make matters worse for Davis, he has to face arguably the league’s best run defense in Tampa twice along with another two contests against the Saints and single-game stints against the Football Team, Dolphins and Browns. Davis is positioned well to see a reasonably big workload, but his projected efficiency — or lack thereof — does not bode well for his 2021 fantasy outlook. He’s in the RB2 conversation for sure, but his lack of upside isn’t particularly appealing, especially given his schedule.
Week 14 byes
When it comes to fantasy football drafting, bye weeks really shouldn’t be a factor in your redraft leagues. Sure, we need to consider them in best ball, but worrying about bye is really more of a distraction than anything in your redraft leagues. However, byes will be a factor in the final week of the fantasy football regular season.
We’ll have four teams on bye in Week 14: The Colts, Eagles, Dolphins and Patriots. While these bye weeks do not impact who we select on draft day, they could certainly impact teams in a win-and-get-in scenario in the final week of the fantasy football regular season.
