NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Week 6 of the 2021 NFL football season is just about to start, and it’s time to fine-tune your fantasy lineups. This includes hunting for solid flex players and sleepers that can pop off and help you win the game.
Each week during the NFL season, this article will highlight some deep sleepers for you to consider when setting lineups. You’ll never see Tier 1 players mentioned in this article, as I’ll look to unearth legitimate deep sleepers — players either low-owned or rarely started.
Here are some of the deep sleepers you should keep an eye on for Week 6.
Week 6 QB Sleepers
Mac Jones, New England Patriots
Mac Jones has been playing solid “game manager” football through five weeks of his rookie season, but it has yet to translate into fantasy production. But may be forced out of his shell in Week 6 against the Cowboys. The Cowboys gave up over 300 passing yards in each of the first four games and 294 last week to the combination of Mike Glennon and Daniel Jones. Dallas has hit its stride offensively, dropping 41, 36 and 44 points over the last three weeks. This is Jones’ best chance yet at a breakout game.
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team
We had Taylor Heinicke posted in this spot last week too, and he earns a mention here again due to a combination of his solid play and premier matchup. He has multiple pass TDs in three of five games this year and has rushed the ball at least five times in each of the last three contests, posting 40-plus rushing yards or a TD in each game. No team in football has allowed more fantasy points to opposing QBs than the Chiefs, Heinicke’s Week 6 opponent (though KC has played Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, to be fair). Even still, this game has the highest total on the sale at 56 with Washington serving as 6.5-point underdogs. The ball will be in Heinicke’s hands aplenty.
Week 6 RB Sleepers
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson needs to be on your sleeper watch list this week with Damien Harris still missing practices. The Patriots are underdogs (3.5 points to Dallas), and as noted above, it may turn into a game in which Mac Jones if forced to air it out. The Pats have had a love-hate relationship with rushing this season, toting it 30 times last week versus only 8 carries the week before, so there’s certainly a risk with this play, but if the Pats defense is able to keep Dallas in check and Harris doesn’t play, Stevenson could be looking at 20-plus carries and goal-line work.
Sony Michel, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are monster 9.5-point favorites against the New York Giants, who may have to rely on Mike Glennon for 60 minutes if Daniel Jones doesn’t clear the concussion protocol in time. Michel handed 12 touches last week — his most in a game with Darrell Henderson also healthy — and found the end zone. Importantly, Michel also handled a goal-line carry in the fourth quarter and converted it for a score. The expectation is that Henderson will be in that role, but we shouldn’t overlook the possibility that Michel will see more goal line touches. This play would certainly be a gamble, but the plus matchup and Michel’s usage last week pegs him as a sleeper.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
Odds are, you’ve been nervously playing Melvin Gordon all year, and for the most part, it has been paying off. You were feeling pretty good when his touches went from 14 to 15 to 19 Weeks 1-3, but the nerves are coming back after back-to-back games with only 11 touches. But the Broncos lost both of those games and won the first three, and the game script should be positive for Denver in Week 6 against the Raiders, where Denver is a 3.5-point favorite. Javonte Williams is going to overtake the backfield before the end of the season, but you can feel good about playing Gordon is plus game scripts. Plus, the Raiders D ranks bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.
Week 6 WR Sleepers
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
I love this from FTN’s Adam Pfeifer:
He has posted 21% and 25% team target market shares in his last two games, tops on the team. St. Brown has logged 13 receptions for 135 yards over the last two games, and while he has yet to find the end zone, his emergence and Quintez Cephus’ injury may open the door for red-zone opportunities. He doesn’t have an end-zone target yet, but he does lead Detroit WRs with 10 red-zone targets.
Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders
Bryan Edwards has mediocre team target market shares — between 8% and 14% every week — but his huge 15.23-yard average depth of target means he doesn’t need as much volume to hit a solid fantasy day if the efficiency clicks one day. The Broncos have been middle-of-the-road against WRs in terms of fantasy points allowed this year, but they were just exposed by another big, physical WR in Chase Claypool (5-130-1). With only 3 receptions on his last 10 targets — after catching 77% of his passes the first three weeks — Edwards is going to bounce back soon.
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Mecole Hardman has remained fairly inconsistent, but he has seen bigger spikes this season in terms of team target market share. He saw 8%, 10% and 10% of the targets in Weeks 1, 3 and 4, respectively. But he saw 26% in Week 2 (tied for team lead) and 24% in Week 5 (second on the team). With Tyreek Hill nursing a knee injury, Hardman could be in line for a bigger week again if Hill needs to take snaps off (something that has happened a few times this year). And the matchup is incredible, with Washington allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs this year, including a real weakness against deep threats (72-yard TD allowed to Deonte Harris last week as the prime example). Deep-ball WRs to score against Washington this year include Harris, Marquez Callaway (twice), Emmanuel Sanders (twice), Darius Slayton and Mike Williams.
Week 6 TE Sleepers
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team
With Logan Thomas out, Ricky Seals-Jones has stepped right into the same role. He saw a 20% team target share last week, tied for second on the team behind Terry McLaurin. RSJ’s 6 red-zone targets are already second on the team for the year, and his 3 end-zone targets are also tied for second on the team. And Washington will be passing a lot to keep up with the Chiefs in a game with a 56-point over/under. The matchup is great, too. Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to TEs this year.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Hunter Henry has strung together back-to-back solid games with lines of 4-32-1 and 6-75-1. He paced all New England pass-catchers last week with 28% target market share (no other player was above 17%). He saw 7 targets in Weeks 1 and 2 combined but has averaged 6.3 per game since then. He’s an ascending player in New England’s offense that’s still searching for an identity. And the matchup is solid, as Dallas is a bottom-10 defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to TEs.
