Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Marvin Jones)
Fantasy Football Value 2021 – Marvin Jones
Marvin Jones will make Jacksonville the third stop of his NFL career. The 31-year-old wide receiver was brought in this offseason on a two-year deal worth $14.5 million. When a free agent wide receiver gets this kind of money, it’s safe to say he’ll be on the field often. He’s coming off a season in Detroit where he set career highs in both targets (115) and receptions (76). These numbers were good enough to push Jones inside the top 20 fantasy football wide receivers, as the WR18 in PPR. He was one of just four wide receivers inside the top 20 with under 1,000 receiving yards (978). A lot of this volume was thanks to the Lions struggles through the 2020 season. They ranked fifth in the league in pass percentage, at 63% and were one of just 13 teams who were above that 60% threshold.
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While there’s been an overhaul in Jacksonville this offseason, it’s worth noting where they stood as well. The Jaguars passed at a higher rate than any other team last season (66.2%). Defensively, they had plenty of struggles leading to this number. It’s safe to expect they’ll be in the same boat in 2021, just with a more skilled offense. Pass volume will be more than present, and Jones is in a spot to outperform what we saw a season ago.
With the Lions last season, Jones had an average depth of target of 13.0 yards, per FTN’s advanced receiving stats. Minimum 75 targets, that ranked 12th among wide receivers. Considering the number of targets he saw, Jones was able to keep his drop percentage fairly low (4.90%). While four drops on the season isn’t exactly ideal, that rate was top 25 among wide receivers. Jones saw the most production in the touchdown department. He’s scored at least nine touchdowns in three of the past four seasons. His nine touchdowns in 2020 were tied for the eighth in the league. Five of Jones’ eight end-zone targets resulted in a touchdown. Jones was also a force when it came to contested catches. He saw 10 contested targets and was able to haul in eight of them. Only Keenan Allen (11) and Allen Robinson (9) had more contested catches than Jones.
New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer used the first overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft to select quarterback Trevor Lawrence — and when it comes to the skill positions, he wasn’t done just yet. The Jaguars also held the 25th overall pick and drafted Lawrence’s college teammate, Travis Etienne, a running back. So on top of the Jones addition, a pass-catching running back is added to the mix. Jones will share time with second-year wide receiver Laviska Shenault and D.J. Chark. Looking at the FTN Fantasy season-long projections below, it’s clear this trio should see a bulk of the targets.
While Jones is projected for the fewest targets (94) of the bunch, these projections are about as tight as it gets. Chark has the highest projection in terms of targets with 108, just 14 more than Jones. In terms of total PPR points, Jones isn’t all that far behind the two. His projection of 6.5 touchdowns is the highest of the three. As mentioned earlier, Jones has shown the ability to find the end zone over the course of his career, and we shouldn’t expect that to stop now. Jones’ total PPR projection of 176.5 fantasy points would make him the WR45 by season’s end. This places Jones right around wide receivers like Jaylen Waddle, Mike Williams and Marquise Brown.
He also has the safest floor when it comes to snap share. Even if Jones doesn’t lead the team in targets, he’s been a guy who plays a lot of snaps. Though Jones was in Detroit in 2020, he played more snaps than both Chark (702) and Shenault (585). His 892 snaps played were the 13th among wide receivers.
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Fantasy Football ADP Stock Watch – Marvin Jones
Given Jones’ assumed role in this pass-heavy Jaguars’ offense, he is being selected far too late in drafts. The FTN Fantasy ADP tool currently has Jones at 147.9 in drafts. This ADP makes him the 54th wide receiver off the board. It’s a range that includes players like Russell Gage, Henry Ruggs and Mecole Hardman. Jones is a veteran crammed into this range with mainly young, unproven wide receivers. While he may not possess the upside as some of the players listed, he almost certainly provides the safest floor. As the WR54, Jones has nowhere to go but up in terms of his stock. We already saw Trevor Lawrence lean on Jones, targeting him four times in the first two drives of the Jaguars’ first preseason game. Jones turned these targets into three receptions, with one going for 35 yards. If we see the chemistry between Lawrence and Jones continue in the next two weeks, I’d expect to see a rise in Jones’ ADP. It may not be a significant jump, but he should be able to push himself inside the top 50 wide receivers.
NFL Fantasy Football Ranking – Marvin Jones
The FTN Fantasy rankings currently have Jones as the consensus WR46 in PPR formats. Chris Meaney’s rank of 36th is the highest among FTN analysts, with Adam Pfeifer right behind him at 37th. There are also two analysts with Jones outside of their top 50 wide receivers, which pulls this consensus down a tad. In a wide receiver room with D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault, I’m not sure Jones’ consensus rank will rise all that much.
