Fantasy football player profile: Jerry Jeudy

(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Jerry Jeudy)

Fantasy football value 2021 – Jerry Jeudy

Jeudy had a very interesting rookie season, as there was some good and some bad. He ultimately finished the 2020 campaign with 52 catches for 856 yards and three touchdowns. The efficiency was very, very underwhelming, as Jeudy hauled in just 52 of his 113 targets, sporting a 45% catch rate, tied for the lowest mark among all wideouts with at least 50 targets. Meanwhile, Jeudy had an issue with drops, as his 12 drops trailed only Diontae Johnson. Luckily, drops don’t really matter and aren’t a sticky stat. And Jeudy had the ability to drop 12 passes because he showcased an ability we saw from him during his time at Alabama — getting open.

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With incredibly quick feet, Jeudy is truly already one of the best route runners in the NFL, as he has the ability to change directions at an elite level. And of course, not all 12 drops were on Jeudy. Denver’s quarterback situation was arguably the worst in football last year and as a result, just 57% of Jeudy’s targets were deemed catchable, which was tied for the third-lowest rate among all qualified receivers. On top of that, Jeudy was used frequently down the field, as his 14.06-yard average depth of target was good enough for ninth among receivers with at least 50 targets. And when he was targeted deep down the field, Jeudy had a tough time making plays, as just 35% of his targets 20 yards or more down the field were deemed catchable, which was the sixth-lowest rate among wideouts with at least five deep targets last year.

Clearly, Jeudy’s rookie campaign was a bit of a mixed bag. Yes, there were passes he should have caught, but he also got open as much as any player in football, and if you just watch him play, you’ll know that is going to be a strength of his for years to come. The efficiency cannot get worse than it was a season ago, and Jeudy has all the makings of a true second-year breakout candidate in 2021. It will be interesting, however, to see the passing volume in this Denver offense. Courtland Sutton, who played just a half of one game last year, will be back, while the Broncos also have Noah Fant, K.J. Hamler and two very strong running backs.

With Sutton out of action last season, Jeudy averaged a solid 7.06 targets per game, while seeing seven or more looks in nine contests. But what happens if the overall passing volume drops in Denver this season? Last year, the Broncos defense was rather depleted, resulting in this unit surrendering 27.9 points per game, the eighth most in football. Opposing offenses scored points on 44.6% of their drives against Denver, the eighth-highest rate in the league. I expect this defense to flirt with top-10 status this season and with Denver having one of the best projected schedules for rushing, the Broncos will likely look to lean on the run this season. 

It’ll also be interesting to see if Jeudy’s role changes with a healthy Sutton. Like I mentioned, Jeudy was used down the field a lot in year one, but back in 2019, that was clearly Sutton’s role, as he saw 23 deep targets. If Jeudy is used closer to the line of scrimmage, the catch rate (though it already was going to) will skyrocket, while I expect him to play both on the outside and in the slot, similar to what he did last season. There could be some concern about targets in a crowded offense that wants to run the football but targets are earned and Jeudy just flat-out gets open. He is a very exciting WR3/flex candidate with plenty of upside.

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Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Jerry Jeudy

Per FTN’s ADP tool, Jeudy is being drafted as the WR35, coming off the board in the sixth or seventh round. And in Underdog drafts, Jeudy has climbed to WR28, ahead of teammate Sutton, as well as receivers such as Robby Anderson, Tyler Boyd and Kenny Golladay. I still prefer Anderson and Boyd over Jeudy this season but given Golladay’s hamstring injury and some uncertainty with Sutton coming back from his own injury, I have zero issues with Jeudy going ahead of both players. In three-receiver leagues, I’d still prefer Jeudy to be my third receiver rather than my second wideout but the reason his ADP is starting to climb is because of the obvious potential.

NFL fantasy football ranking – Jerry Jeudy

In FTN’s consensus PPR rankings, Jeudy comes in as the WR31, which feels right. He is just ahead of Sutton with his highest spot being WR26. In this Denver offense, his ceiling is probably WR15 or so, but I can’t get over how easily Jeudy created separation and got open as a rookie. I do believe it is possible that, even with Sutton back in the lineup, Jeudy is the WR1 of the Broncos. He is an outstanding football player.