Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Cole Kmet)
Fantasy Football Value 2021 – Cole Kmet
Cole Kmet was the first tight end off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Bears selected the Notre Dame product with the 43rd overall pick, the only tight end taken in the first two rounds. While it was a weaker draft class when it came to tight ends, Kmet stood out as the clear top prospect. However, we all know how it goes with rookie tight ends in fantasy football. History repeated itself yet again with Kmet, as he finished the season as the TE41. He totaled just 25 receptions for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns. There’s always a learning curve for tight ends when transitioning to the NFL, so this is nothing new. Kmet will play the 2021 season at just 22 years old. While a massive breakout is unlikely, we should expect to see a different comfort level for the second-year tight end this season.
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His season-end numbers may not be all that appealing, but Kmet did show promise to close out the year. Taking a look at the game log below from Kmet’s page on FTN Fantasy, we see a massive spike in usage by the time week 13 came around. In his first eight games, he didn’t have a single game with more than three targets, or even two receptions. As the season progressed, we saw the targets increase substantially. In Weeks 13-17, Kmet only had one game with fewer than six targets.
Over this stretch, Kmet’s 30 targets were the eighth most of all tight ends. He also piled up 115 yards after the catch, which was the fifth most. When using FTN Fantasy’s air yards tool, you have to scroll pretty far down to find Kmet. In the last five games, Kmet had just as many air yards (150) as he did total receiving yards (149). This was good for 16.4% of the Bears’ total air yards, which was the second most behind just Allen Robinson.
Diving into FTN Fantasy’s advanced receiving stats, Kmet led all tight ends in percentage of yards after the catch (60.90%). This pushed his average depth of target (6.25 yards) down quite a bit. This number left him outside of the top 30 tight ends when it came to aDOT. If both numbers remain consistent this season, Kmet should see a solid floor with his receptions alone. Especially if he can continue to make plays after the catch. These shorter routes led to just one drop on his 44 targets. He had a drop percentage of 3.30%, 10th lowest of all tight ends with 40 or more targets.
In terms of pecking order, Kmet looks to be in line for the third-most targets on the team. That is the way the FTN Fantasy’s projections have it, as Kmet sits just behind Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney. Kmet’s 199.9 projected PPR points would put him just inside the top 20 tight ends (TE19). His reception total of 52 is higher than the players surrounding him, but the yards and touchdowns do not follow suit. This projection has Kmet scoring just one more touchdown than he did last season (2). We need to see a boost in red zone usage to expect to see this number rise. Last season, Kmet was massively out-targeted by Jimmy Graham when the Bears got inside the 20. Graham scored seven of his eight touchdowns on the season in the red zone. In fact, all seven of these were end zone targets as well. Kmet was targeted just once in the end zone all season, which resulted in a touchdown.
While Graham will have a role in the red zone, we should see Kmet take a step forward as well. It’s interesting to see how the Bears slowly started involving Kmet as the season went on. Looking at FTN Fantasy’s snap report, Kmet saw tons of involvement towards the back half of the season. Graham out-snapped Kmet on the season 56.79% to 46.43%. However, there wasn’t a single game from Week 10 on that Graham out-snapped Kmet. There was only one game (Week 13) during that stretch where Kmet played less than 70% of the snaps. Expect to see Kmet on the field a whole lot more this upcoming season as Graham takes a back seat.
Fantasy Football ADP Stock Watch – Cole Kmet
Tight ends ADP can oftentimes get skewed the further down the list you go. Over the last few years, fantasy owners who don’t get a high-profile tight end typically settle for a late round flyer. That’s the range we find Cole Kmet. His current ADP on FTN Fantasy is 167.34 as the TE21. This ADP puts him right at the end of the 14th round. He’s either a late-round flyer, or the TE2 on a team who drafted another tight end just a few rounds earlier. While Kmet seems like a safe bet to be a week-to-week starter, there is a good chance he gets off to a slow start. Over the past three months, we’ve consistently seen Kmet’s ADP fall. It took its biggest tumble from June (161.70) to July (166.69), where it fell a full 5 spots. Since then, Kmet has already dropped another spot in August. Depending on what Kmet is able to show throughout the preseason, it’s hard to imagine this falling any further. The second-year tight end could see his ADP stock rise if he shows out in his preseason opportunities.
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NFL Fantasy Football Ranking – Cole Kmet
(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)
FTN Fantasy’s consensus ranking on Cole Kmet is TE15. While his ranking is consistent across the board, there is one outlier: Kyle Murray has Kmet ranked as his TE29 in PPR formats. There are two experts who have Kmet as a fringe TE1 ranked as high as 12th, but he does not crack the top 10. He should remain right in the range of 14-20 when draft day comes around.
