Fantasy football player profile: Chase Claypool

(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Chase Claypool)

Fantasy football value 2021 – Chase Claypool

The 2020 wide receiver class had plenty to offer, even beyond the first round. Chase Claypool was the 10th receiver selected, falling right into the Steelers’ lap. Of the rookie wideouts, only Justin Jefferson scored more standard fantasy points in 2020 than Claypool (CeeDee Lamb slightly edged him in PPR). Jefferson, Claypool and Lamb were the only three rookies to finish inside the top 25. Claypool’s fantasy points saw a spike thanks to his 11 total touchdowns. He had a monster game in Week 5 against the Eagles, finding the end zone four times (three receiving, one rushing). This performance was good for 42.6 fantasy points, 20% of his yearly total. Other than that Week 5, Claypool had just one other game in which he eclipsed 100 yards receiving. 

It’s impressive what Claypool was able to accomplish in his rookie year considering his limited role. He got the short end of the stick of the three-headed monster in the Steelers’ wide receiver room. An abnormal offseason in 2020 could have played a role as well. Per Teresa Varley of steelers.com, Claypool mentioned this offseason that “things are getting easier.” While we’d like to believe that Claypool’s usage will see an increase in his second year, it’s still going to be an uphill battle for snaps. Starting with his Week 5 breakout game, he played more than 60% of snaps in eight straight weeks. Know what these eight games had in common? They were all wins. You’d expect a rookie’s usage to increase as the season went on, but that was not the case with Claypool. From Week 13 through Week 17, je didn’t have a single game where he saw over 55% of the snap share.

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Both JuJu Smith-Schuster (60.84%) and Diontae Johnson (48.32%) outsnapped Claypool in 2020. Claypool also had the lowest target share of the three (16.69%). It’s difficult for a team to support a trio of wide receivers when it comes to fantasy football. Unfortunately, we could see a very similar type of split this season.

Even with a stout defense, the 2020 Steelers still were able to lead the league in pass attempts (656). This was almost 20 more than the second-place Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers were basically pushed into being a pass-heavy team due to their lack of success on the ground. They were a bottom rushing offense in just about every category. They had the fewest rushing yards (1,351) in the league. James Conner led the team with 721 yards, followed by Benny Snell at 368. They did this on a total of 373 rush attempts, a bottom-five mark. Their inefficiencies on the ground led them to selecting Alabama running back Najee Harris in the first round, with Conner leaving as a free agent. In terms of volume and usage, this isn’t the best of news for Claypool. This could very well lead the Steelers to an entirely new look on offense. It would be surprising to see the Steelers near the top of the league in pass attempts again here in 2021. We could see their pace slow down as they start to lean more on the run. Claypool was already fighting for more snaps and targets with Smith-Schuster and Johnson, and now Harris is added to the picture.

FTN Fantasy’s season projections have Claypool slated for just over 200 fantasy points in PPR. This would make him the WR32, behind both Johnson (WR16) and Smith-Schuster (WR26). His 108 projected targets rank third on the Steelers behind these two wideouts. However, he does have the highest touchdown total of the three. Claypool is the preferred deep threat in this offense, and has shown the ability to get into the end zone. This gives Claypool a slight boost in standard leagues. His projected total of 7.1 touchdowns puts him right outside the top 10. 

Despite having the type of volume and snaps that the other two saw in 2020, Claypool demanded a ton of air yards. Using FTN Fantasy’s air yards tool, it’s clear what direction the deep balls were thrown. Claypool led the Steelers wide receivers with 1,438 air yards and it wasn’t all that close. He was also first on the team when it came to average depth of target at 13.19 yards. This was over five yards more than both Johnson (7.94) and Smith-Schuster (5.49). It really goes to show that Claypool is capped in terms of reception total. Johnson and Smith-Schuster are running the shorter routes, while Claypool is taking the top off. 

Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Chase Claypool

If you’re buying into the Claypool sweepstakes, you don’t have to pay that high of a price. Having so many weapons in this Steelers’ offense will quickly steer people away, pushing his ADP down further than what it could be. He’s currently being selected as the WR29 with an ADP of 83.24. This puts him just one spot above his teammate Smith-Schuster (85.53). Watching his ADP stock over the last couple months, his price has stayed relatively flat. We saw a slight rise from June (83.44) to July (83.24) and this has yet to change here in early-August. Unless we get some type of massive news about Claypool, Johnson or Smith-Schuster, don’t expect to see much movement in these ADPs.

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NFL fantasy football ranking – Chase Claypool

(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)

FTN Fantasy’s ranking of Chase Claypool in PPR is pretty diverse. When you get down into this WR3/WR4 range, everyone typically takes a stand. Claypool’s highest rank is 24, with his lowest being all the way down to 46. With such a wide range, it’s safe to say he will remain right around WR31, which is where FTN’s consensus currently has him ranked.