Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Week 4

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 4

Diontae Johnson Saw 12 First-Read Targets in Week 3

The move to Andy Dalton was beneficial to the entire Carolina offense, but perhaps no one enjoyed it more than Johnson. He saw 14 total targets from Dalton, with 12 being first-read looks. Johnson saw a massive 38% target share and was the clear focal point of the passing attack, also seeing four end zone targets. He now leads the NFL with six end zone targets through the first three weeks of the season and is set to face a poor Cincinnati defense that has allowed huge games to Rashee Rice (5-75-1) and Terry McLaurin (4-100-1) over the past two weeks. Wit Adam Thielen now on injured reserve, the target floor should remain incredibly high for Johnson going forward, who is now a must-start, top-20 fantasy wide receiver.

The Panthers Are Allowing an 18.9% Explosive Run Rate out of the Shotgun

Let’s stay in this same game, shall we? Zack Moss has been operating as the clear lead running back in Cincinnati this season, logging 75% of the snaps through the first three weeks. And when the Bengals are in scoring position, it has absolutely been Moss, who has seen all four goal-line carries and is playing 78% of the snaps inside the 5-yard line. Coming off a good game, Moss now gets one of the worst run defenses in all of football in Carolina. The Panthers are allowing 0.23 EPA/attempt, the worst mark in football. But more specifically, Carolina is allowing an 18.9% explosive run rate out of the shotgun (fourth worst), as well as 3.3 yards before contact per attempt, the fifth-worst mark out of shotgun formation. We know the Bengals offense primarily operates from the gun, as 70% of Moss’ carries have come out of that formation.

Brian Robinson Jr. Has Averaged 24 Touches Per Game Without Antonio Gibson Since 2022

I know what you’re thinking. “Adam, Antonio Gibson plays in New England now.” And you would absolutely be correct. However, although it is a different regime in Washington, I really think we could see similar usage from Robinson Sunday with Austin Ekeler ruled out with a concussion. Since entering the league, Robinson has had a much larger role when Washington’s second running back (Gibson) has been sidelined. In two such contests, Robinson is averaging 24 touches, 20.5 carries and a healthy five targets per game. And while this isn’t the same coaching staff, we have seen the Commanders target the running back position quite a bit, while 31.6% of Jayden Daniels’ pass attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage thus far. A matchup with Arizona’s run defense is nothing to fear, making Robinson a must-start fantasy running back for Week 4.

The Bills Are Allowing 10.0 YAC/Reception off Screens

Buffalo’s defense has been phenomenal to start the season, especially when it comes to limiting explosive pass plays. However, for over a year now, this is a unit that has had some difficulty defending screen passes. After allowing 10.1 yards after the catch per reception off screens in 2023, the Bills are allowing 10 YAC/reception off screens so far this season. They are also allowing the seventh-highest success rate off screen passes and given what this defense allows in the passing game, it matches up perfectly with what Zay Flowers does in Baltimore’s offense. Flowers currently ranks first in all of football with eight screen targets, as he continues to see manufactured touches in the Ravens’ passing attack. With Buffalo unlikely to get Taron Johnson back this week, this sets up as a sneaky good spot for Flowers to bounce back.

Rome Odunze Is Averaging 110 Air Yards Per Game

That’s good for sixth in the NFL through three weeks. We saw Odunze make splash plays down the field last week in Indianapolis, and he has a terrific chance to do it again this weekend. Through just three weeks, the Rams have allowed a league-high eight completions of 20-plus yards, including four such touchdowns. They have also allowed two touchdowns off go routes. This all bodes extremely well for Odunze, who ranks top five in targets off go routes (5). Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jauan Jennings have all eclipsed 100 yards against Los Angeles. No team in football is allowing more yards per completion than the Rams (13.1) and even if Keenan Allen makes his return this week, Odunze should still be viewed as a high-upside flex option.