Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 2
The Cincinnati Bengals Allowed 16.8 Yards Per Catch off Slant Routes in 2023
That was the worst mark in the NFL, but it doesn’t end there. The Bengals also surrendered 9.6 yards after the catch per reception and a 45.9% open separation rate off the play type, both of which were also worst in football. It makes this a stellar spot for Rashee Rice to find continued success, as he led the league with five targets off slant routes in Week 1. He caught seven passes for over 100 yards on nine targets, while posting a very healthy 33% target share. Kansas City did a great job of getting him matched up against linebackers and against a Cincinnati defense that allowed a ton of explosive plays last season, expect a second consecutive great performance from the second-year wideout.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Had a 28.8% Target Share Against the Blitz Last Year
It was one of the highest marks among all wide receivers in the split, while St. Brown also averaged a league-best 4.0 targets per game against the blitz. His 3.2 yards per route run ranked seventh, and he should be much busier this week than he was Sunday night. Detroit will face Todd Bowles and his blitz-heavy ways, as Tampa Bay blitzed 42.4% of the time in Week 1, good for the third-highest rate in the league. Jared Goff should be looking St. Brown’s way early and often in this game, especially with Tampa Bay missing a few key players in their secondary.
The Raiders Allowed the 3rd-Most Receiving Yards off Screen Passes in 2023 (509)
Zay Flowers’ Week 1 usage was very similar to what we saw last year. A lot of passes close to the line of scrimmage and plenty of screens. Last Thursday, Flowers had 10 total targets, but four of them came off screens and five were behind the line of scrimmage. That usage should give him a strong weekly floor, though I do think this is an advantageous matchup for him. Last season, the Raiders coughed up the third-most receiving yards off screen passes, while also allowing 9.5 yards after the catch per reception off the play type. And to make this spot even better, Flowers posted a solid 23.7% target share against Cover-3 last year, ranking top 10 in both catches (20) and open separation rate (66.7%) against the defense.
Carolina Allowed 4.7 Yards Per Carry off Inside Zone Runs Last Year
That was the second-worst mark in the NFL, and so far in 2024, this run defense looks just as bad. And it might end up being worse when you consider defensive tackle Derrick Brown is out for the rest of the season. J.K. Dobbins is coming off a stellar Week 1 where four of his 10 carries were inside zone concepts. Against the Saints in Week 1, the Panthers surrendered a 27% avoided tackle rate, also coughing up 2.6 yards before contact per attempt. This Chargers offensive line continues to create rushing lanes, as Dobbins averaged over five yards before contact per attempt in his first game. If you added Dobbins off waivers this week, feel good about starting him.
6 of Chris Olave’s 11 End Zone Targets from Last Year Came Against Cover-1
Despite the Saints flirting with 50 points, Olave hardly contributed. But he should bounce back here, even against a strong Dallas defense. In 2023, no team played more defensive dropbacks in Cover-1 than the Cowboys, and so far this season, they are picking up right where they left off. In Week 1, there were 20 dropbacks where Dallas was in Cover-1, the most in the league. Against Cover-1 last year, Olave ranked 10th in yards per route run (3.0), while six of his 11 end zone targets came against the defense. He also flirted with a 25% target share against the coverage and with the massive uptick in both play-action and pre-snap motion by the Saints in Week 1, you should simply just feel a lot better about this offense. Buy low on Olave while you still can.
