Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
On to Week 1…
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 1
The Colts Allowed 1.20 EPA/TGT Off Post Routes in 2023
Arguably my favorite matchup of the week is the Houston passing game against this Colts secondary. In fact, C.J. Stroud is my third-ranked quarterback on the week. This is a smash spot for the entire passing game, but especially for the combination of Stroud and Nico Collins. For starters, this is a pace-up spot, as Indianapolis led the NFL in both average seconds per snap (24.0) and no-huddle rate (18.1%) last season. But simply out, this Indianapolis pass defense has no chance of slowing Collins down. Per the StatsHub, the Colts allowed 1.20 EPA/TGT off post routes last year, the third-worst mark in football. They also surrendered the fourth-highest catch rate (66.7%) and yards (464) off the route type. Collins, meanwhile, ranked fourth among all wideouts in post targets (14), while also ranking top-15 among qualified receivers in success rate (64.3%). And to make this matchup even better, the Colts also coughed up 84.5 receiving yards per game to opposing lead wide receivers, the fourth most in the league. Expect some fireworks from Stroud and Collins Sunday.
Arizona Allowed 4.6 Yards Per Carry on Power Runs Last Season (9th Worst)
The Cardinals project to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, so it’s no secret the Bills have the highest implied team total of the week. And as a huge home favorite, that bodes well for James Cook, who took on a larger role once Buffalo changed offenses last season. In Weeks 11-18 last season (when Joe Brady began calling plays), Cook averaged 16.7 carries, 72.4 rushing yards, 3.7 targets and 16.7 PPR points per game. He was the RB8 in fantasy to end the season and saw an uptick in pass game usage in Brady’s offense. His target share climbed by four percent once Brady took over, while his targets per route run climbed to 23%. He’ll now face an Arizona team that allowed 4.6 yards per carry on power runs in 2023, which consisted of 25% of Cook’s runs during that Week 11-18 stretch, a top-five rate in the league. The Cardinals also coughed up a healthy 3.1 yards after contact per attempt on power concepts, the third-worst mark in football.
8.8% of Runs Against the Lions Last Year Gained 10-Plus Yards
That was the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, as the Lions transformed into an elite run defense in 2023. Detroit also allowed just 1.7 yards before contact per attempt (sixth best), while 20.8% of the runs against this unit were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, a top-12 rate in the league. Not only did the Lions not allow a single running back to reach 100 rushing yards against them, but no one even reached 70 rushing yards against Detroit. And oh, by the way, this defensive line added DJ Reader this offseason. Between the matchup and the possibility of ceding some work to Blake Corum, I have Kyren Williams ranked as a high-end RB2 this week, rather than the consensus top-10 running back he was drafted as.
Jordan Love Ranked 5th in Dropbacks with Pre-Snap Motion in 2023 (167)
Aaron Rodgers has historically not enjoyed pre-snap motion, so it wasn’t a surprise to see Matt LaFleur utilize it much more in Rodgers’ first season playing elsewhere. This past season, the Packers bumped their usage of motion. In 2022, Rodgers’ final season, Green Bay utilized pre-snap motion 37.9% of the time. However, this past season, that rate jumped up to 54.3%, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. Love ranked top five in both dropbacks and pass attempts (156) with pre-snap motion and now is set to face a vulnerable Eagles pass defense that surrendered eight touchdown passes off pre-snap motion in 2023 (sixth most), as well as a 7.1% touchdown rate off the play type.
RBs Avoided 21.3% of Tackles Against the Broncos in 2023
That was the worst rate in all of football, and although Denver’s defense vastly improved during the second half of the season, this run defense still looks like one we can attack. The Broncos also allowed 1.5 second level yards per attempt (second most), as well as a 19% explosive run rate (10-plus yards) on outside zone concepts. And for someone who often looks to hit the home run like Kenneth Walker does, that makes this matchup very advantageous. Denver also surrendered 26.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields last season (second most), so don’t be surprised if Walker breaks off a couple of long runs as a home favorite in Seattle Sunday.
