Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2024 NFL Draft was filled with head-scratching moves and unexpected slides, but we now have a complete picture of what this rookie class contains for viable fantasy assets. With plenty of rookie drafts starting today, we are going to look at some takeaways through a dynasty scope.
Quarterbacks
The 2024 quarterback class is one for the ages, seeing six selected in the top 12 picks, and then a record-setting 137-pick gap between Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler. The question is how many of them become viable assets?
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
The cream of the crop was the 2022 Heisman winner Caleb Williams, who holds plenty of USC single-season passing records. His impact will be felt all over the Bears roster and should elevate the passing game. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow rookie Rome Odunze will be the biggest beneficiaries here, but don’t count out the impact he will have on D’Andre Swift and the run game. If you are wise, you’ll invest in the Bears offense one way or another.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
As the second pick in the draft, 2023 Heisman winner Jayden Daniels will have a lot of weight on his shoulders as he tries to fill a position that has been so unreliable for the Commanders for over a decade. He will have an immediate impact for fantasy due to his safe rushing floor, which was on display his whole college career where he rushed for over 3,000 yards. He is more than that though – he also passed for over 12,000, making him the only player to accomplish this feat in history. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson also get a bump here from Daniels’ arm. I see this as a hit to Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson since Daniels should take away plenty of their rushing touches and easy checkdowns.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots
After Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe didn’t work out, the Patriots are hoping Drake Maye can be their answer at quarterback and bring the stability back that they had with Tom Brady. Maye is a playmaker at heart who can beat you with his legs or his arm. His processing and decision-making will be questioned, but this can be improved at the NFL level. Maye should help revive the Patriots passing game from a fantasy perspective, which is great news as they also landed two rookie wide receivers in Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. KJ Osborn and Hunter Henry should also see a slight bump here and be on your radar as cheap trade targets in your dynasty leagues.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
In the wildest move of the draft, Michael Penix being selected in the top 10 seems like a huge overpay. Penix has struggled to stay healthy, sustaining two ACL injuries in college, and is 24 years old as a rookie. Things get messier when we consider the Falcons also just paid Kirk Cousins a ton of money to be their starter for the next few years. For the immediate future, Penix feels like an irrelevant pick for fantasy but could be propelled into the limelight if Kirk Cousins struggles in his rehab or suffers an injury.
JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
We heard the rumblings and grumblings, but it finally came to fruition. JJ McCarthy is a Viking. Many people regard McCarthy as a toolsy player who needs time to develop, but there’s a chance he will be learning on the job. McCarthy is used to a pro-style offense coming from Michigan and should be able to step in right away and be effective. Worst case scenario, this is a lateral move from Kirk Cousins for Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson. This is also a huge bump for Aaron Jones, as McCarthy is athletic but far from a scrambler, which should lead to plenty of checkdowns and dumpoffs.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
You are either in or out on Bo Nix, there is really no in between. Nix has developed over his record-setting 61 starts at the college level but has never been much more than a short-area thrower. He set multiple completion percentage records while at Oregon and threw for over 15,000 yards in his career. Nix in Denver is the perfect spot since Sean Payton had plenty of success with Drew Brees with similar concerns about arm strength and limited effectiveness downfield. The Broncos also added plenty of weapons by selecting Nix’s college teammate Troy Franklin, along with Devaughn Vele and Audric Estime. These players will make up a solid group when added to Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, Greg Dulcich and Javonte Williams. Nix should be the starter in 2024 and will bring stability to the fantasy assets in Denver. Investing in low-cost guys like Mims and Franklin seems like a smart move here.
The rest of the quarterbacks selected after the first round are far less appealing for fantasy. I don’t think we have a Brock Purdy in this group. Spencer Rattler lands in New Orleans, which is the most appealing considering Derek Carr has struggled the past few seasons. The next most appealing would be Jordan Travis, who gets a solid landing spot behind Aaron Rodgers in New York. Travis is a solid playmaker but needs to develop more accuracy and rhythm to become a weekly starter.
Joe Milton will likely be behind Drake Maye for the entirety of his career but gets to learn from Jacoby Brissett, who is a similar player, and could follow his career path. Devin Leary earned Round 7 draft capital with the Ravens. This is likely irrelevant for fantasy, as he will back up Lamar Jackson for most of his career.
Running Backs
This running back class was one of the weakest historically, and it showed on draft day. The first running back wasn’t selected until Pick 46, and we only saw four total selected in the first two days. This, paired with some terrible landing spots, has limited many viable fantasy options for our rookie drafts.
Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers
Jonathon Brooks felt like the far and away RB1 in October of last year but then sustained an ACL injury which cooled the hype. Brooks had over 1,400 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage in his 11 games after emerging from Bijan Robinson’s shadows. Being added to the Panthers backfield makes it a messy situation with Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, but I think Brooks should emerge as the guy sooner than later. We have seen Dave Canales feature a single back, most recently Rachaad White, who has a similar skill set to Brooks. So if we get even half of that workload, he will be fantasy gold. As far as the others in the backfield, they will likely disappear into the background.
Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals
At 6-foot-1, 211 pounds, Trey Benson has ideal size, and his blazing 4.3 speed makes him a home-run threat on every touch. There have been questions on whether Benson can handle a full workload, so landing in Arizona is actually a perfect fit. He will start his career as a limited touch player who can refine his early-down running and allow James Conner to work in on passing downs and hopefully stay healthy. This will limit Benson’s upside for the time being, but he is still a player to target in rookie drafts as this year’s Kenneth Walker.
Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were not the Los Angeles team many of us hoped would be calling Balke Corum’s name, but it is still a favorable position for him. Last year we saw him continue to produce at a high level after his ACL injury with another 1,200-yard rushing season and 27 touchdowns. He will now work with Kyren Williams in a similar fashion to how he has worked in a committee with Donovan Edwards. Corum has no real passing game upside, which is where Williams will work, but both can be successful on early downs as well. This will limit both players’ upsides weekly, but I am sure we will see plenty of weeks that both players are fantasy starters for us. Don’t panic and sell Williams or be scared away from drafting Corum in the second round of rookie drafts just yet, there could be fantasy gold at the end of the tunnel.
Jaylen Wright, Miami Dolphins
With the selection of Jaylen Wright in the fourth round, the only thing I could picture was Mike McDaniel as Ricky Bobby and screaming “I wanna go fast.” The Dolphins now have the fastest offense in the league by a mile, as Wright is an imposing 5-foot-10, 219 pounds and runs a blazing 4.38 40-yard dash. This pick makes so much sense for the Dolphins, as Wright needs some reps to refine his vision and decision-making prior to being a weekly starter, so getting to play behind a similar player in Raheem Mostert will be key for his long-term success. We will likely see a three-man backfield in year one where De’Von Achane, Mostert and Wright all see touches, making it an absolute mess for fantasy. Be patient here, though, as Wright will likely emerge as the primary ball-carrier next year or if an injury occurs to either of the other players.
MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers
MarSahwn Lloyd is a polarizing player in this rookie class. He failed to top 1,000 rushing yards in his career and only has one season over 1,000 scrimmage yards due to injuries and committees throughout his career. Lloyd is a bursty runner who has good vision throughout the different levels of the defense. He is in a crowded room to start his career and likely won’t see enough touches behind Josh Jacobs to be viable for fantasy, but there may be value in waiting on him. He offers a three-down skill set, so if the Packers were to move on from Jacobs in 2025 (they have an out in his contract), Lloyd would ascend into a must-roster asset.
As for the rest of the running back class, we didn’t see many viable landing spots.
Bucky Irving and Ray Davis both landed in decent situations and should be on the fantasy radar, as Irving only has to clear Ke’shawn Vaughn and Sean Tucker for the role behind Rachaad White. Davis is walking into a RB2 role behind James Cook and could be the sneaky value early on in rookie drafts. This 220-pound bowling ball may become the Bills’ primary red-zone back within the next few years. Another hammer style runner in Audric Estime lands in Denver, which is interesting. He could carve out an early-down role and work as a 1B to Javonte Williams, but his value will be in touchdowns which may be far and few between in Denver for a bit.
My favorite late-round landing spot is 5-foot-8, 213-pound Kimani Vidal, who doesn’t have the hardest path to touches. He was highly productive at Troy, producing over 4,700 scrimmage yards, and can play all three downs. Having to only clear an injury-prone JK Dobbins and lackluster Gus Edwards makes him a must-draft in the third round or later in rookie drafts.
Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis both ended up in the newly crowded Jets backfield and will have to battle for the scraps behind Breece Hall. Will Shipley lands in Philadelphia and will be a handcuff to Saquon Barkley, but is a far less explosive Kenneth Gainwell, and we have seen how that worked out in Philly. Rasheen Ali managed modest draft capital despite some injury concerns. Baltimore is a nice fit for him as well, since his speed and one-cut running style is similar to Justice Hill, who has found success in their system when healthy. Jawhar Jordan is also a name with a favorable landing spot in Houston. He is a speedster at heart and could be a great complement to Joe Mixon if he can refine his game at the NFL level.
My final notes on this class would be to draft a few in the last round of your rookie draft, as they are boom-or-bust guys with some intriguing upside.
Wide Receivers
Entering the draft, there was a ton of buzz surrounding this draft class and plenty of people who thought we may see an NFL draft record for WRs selected in round one. This wasn’t the case. We did see the big three go early, but then we saw plenty of players slide into later rounds.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
We don’t have to go into much detail here do we? Marvin Harrison is coming off back-to-back 1,200+ yard seasons where he scored 14 times each year. He was one of the most double/triple covered players in recent college history and battled quarterback issues in 2023, otherwise we could have seen even more gaudy numbers. He is stepping in day one as Kyler Murray’s new No. 1 target and should be peppered with throws. His volume will make him a fantasy goldmine for many years to come. When Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba say you are the best in the room, I am listening, so let’s see it Maserati Marv.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
There were questions around whether the Giants would go quarterback this year, but instead they decided to give Daniel Jones a true WR1 in Malik Nabers. Nabers had been quietly ascending over the past two years at LSU and exploded in 2023 for 1,569 yards. He steps into a barren wide receiver room and will be commanding a high number of targets early on. Being paired with the creative trust of Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka will allow him to lean on his strengths, which is getting the ball in space and going to work. Not that we were overly interested in any other Giants pass-catchers, but Wan’Dale Robinson won’t be too affected here and is still a good option to target in trades.
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze is arguably the most polished receiver in the big three but lacks some of the high-end explosive traits. He led the nation in receiving last year with 1,640 yards, which was a Washington record, and became just the second Washington receiver to top 1,000 yards receiving more than once. He is in a messy situation in year one now with both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen ahead of him in the pecking order, but the ceiling is so high for Odunze. He has a similar mold to Allen, so it will be perfect for him to learn from the veteran. Be patient with Odunze and it will pay off. He is going to be a perennial WR1 for years to come, especially being tied to Caleb Williams.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
After losing Calvin Ridley in free agency, it’s no surprise the Jaguars went looking for a new WR2, and they may have found it in Brian Thomas. He is a speedy field-stretcher who has had limited exposure to different routes but exploded for 17 touchdowns in 2023. He is going to have to battle Gabe Davis and Zay Jones for a significant role in this offense, which may be harder than people want to admit. We have seen that the Jaguars can produce a handful of viable wide receivers on a weekly basis, but in this crowded room, there is a ton of variance. That leaves questions about what Thomas will offer moving forward, making him one of the riskier early picks in rookie drafts.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
To much surprise, the Bills handed Xavier Worthy to the Chiefs on a silver platter. Kansas City is getting a speedster at heart who ran a combine-record 4.21 40-yard dash, but he is so much more. He is fresh off a 1,000-yard season and is an elite separator who can run every route. Standing on a light frame, there will be durability concerns, but being tied to Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes makes him a high-ceiling player. I would not pass on him in the late first round of rookie drafts. He will likely steal some of the schemed screen touches that we saw Rashee Rice flourish with, so it’s possible we see Rice’s production dip, but I am not looking to move on just yet.
Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman was the most polarizing player in this class. His tape was explosive and exciting, but his combine was lackluster. He lands in a wide-open room in Buffalo and could become one of the best receivers in this class in fantasy over the next few years. His ability to make circus catches and create with the ball in his hands will be a welcomed trait to the Bills offense. This doesn’t affect any other assets on the Bills for dynasty but almost reassures Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir managers that they will have a solid role going forward.
The rest of the wide receiver class was full of some interesting slides and decent landing spots.
Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Legette were two players that found their way into the first round but are not in the best situations. Legette has an open depth chart after Dionate Johnson, but he feels much like Jonathan Mingo and is an avoid for me considering this offense may struggle to get going. Pearsall is in a crowded room and will struggle to be a weekly starter behind Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. He is worth a pick, but I wouldn’t be rushing to draft him.
Troy Franklin was the most notable player to slide, falling to the fourth round, but he landed in a prime spot and got paired with college quarterback Bo Nix. Franklin is stepping into a weak receiver room and could carve out the WR2 role behind Courtland Sutton but will also have to battle Marvin Mims. Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker both land in New England and have a huge opportunity to handle a majority of the work in the coming seasons. I would take the discount and draft Baker in rookie drafts over Polk. Jalen McMillan gets an underrated landing spot in Tampa Bay where he can operate as the third receiver and potentially become the main slot target in 2025.
Tight Ends
Let’s be brutally honest here, it’s Brock Bowers or bust in this class. We saw a few intriguing landing spots, but nothing that screams lift off.
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
The two-time John Mackey award winner Brock Bowers lands in a crowded Las Vegas room where he will have to battle Michael Mayer for snaps. Overthinking this part of the process could cost you though, as his role may be the pass-catching tight end. He is a fluid mover and produced over 2,700 scrimmage yards in his college career. As a blocker, he is a sealer, whereas Mayer is more of a bully. Ultimately, this pick hurts Mayer more than Bowers, and the former is headed toward total irrelevance for fantasy managers. This move also boosts Aidan O’Connell (or Gardner Minshew), as they now have a premier third target behind Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders
Ben Sinnott is a former fullback converted to tight end who is an above-average athlete for the position. He has a good frame at 6-foot-4, 245 pounds and moves very well on a variety of routes. His true strength is his ability to block on the move, and he could be relegated to a blocking role more than a pass-catching role, which is worrisome for fantasy. With Jayden Daniels under center, I don’t expect many easy checkdown targets, so Sinnott will have to earn actual targets in what is a crowded pass-catching room with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey and Cole Turner.
The rest of the group contains Ja’Tavion Sanders, who lands in a wide-open Carolina depth chart and could emerge as the second-best rookie tight end due to the lack of playmakers in that offense. It still feels like he will struggle to find any consistency and shouldn’t be a priority until later in rookie drafts. Theo Johnson lands in a newly wide open Giants room. He still needs to refine his game to become a weekly starter and true threat in the passing game, but he is an athletic freak who could emerge as a value in this rookie draft.
