Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
ADP data keeps rolling in meaning we have new trends to track as we get closer and closer to fantasy football draft season. The Hall of Fame game has passed and this weekend we get to enjoy a full slate of preseason games, meaning ADP is going to move rapidly and with reckless abandon.
This article will track those positive and negative swings in ADP to try and inform fantasy drafters on which movement to buy in on and which movement to fade. This is a very volatile time for fantasy drafts with players moving all over the place which could lead to excellent pockets of value or massive reaches. Use this article to help you navigate the choppy draft waters as more and more fantasy drafts get underway.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
I’ve spent plenty of time writing about Deshaun Watson’s ADP throughout this offseason, so this week I am going to pivot to the quarterback who saw the second-most movement over the last week: Kyler Murray. Murray dropped nearly a round in ADP after missing the last week of practice with COVID-19, moving to an ADP of 70.80 as the QB6 in NFC leagues. It isn’t the steepest decline we have seen from a player this offseason, but fantasy gamers should take advantage of the opportunity to grab a dual-threat quarterback like Murray in the late fifth or early sixth round.
Before his ankle injury last season, Murray was the QB3 in fantasy, averaging 24.96 fantasy points per game. During that seven-game stretch, the veteran quarterback was completing 73% while throwing for 2,002 yards and 17 touchdowns with just five interceptions. He also added 43 carries for 126 yards and three rushing scores. Even when his ankle injury hampered his ability to run, Murray was still effective. Over the last six weeks of the season, he averaged 251.8 passing yards and 46 rushing yards per game. He threw just seven touchdowns (most of this stretch was played without DeAndre Hopkins) and had just three interceptions.
If Murray has avoided long-term issues from COVID-19, he is one of the few quarterbacks who truly has a QB1 season reasonably in his range of outcomes. While he will be without Hopkins to start the season, the team addressed that issue by adding Marquise Brown to help mitigate the loss. A pass-catching group consisting of Brown, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz and James Conner is still very talented and will only improve when Hopkins is eligible to play once again. Take advantage of the dip and draft Murray at what may be his cheapest of the offseason.
Ronald Jones, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Ronald Jones has dropped a full round in ADP (pick 129) after being selected at his highest during this offseason just one week ago. Undoubtedly, Jones’ drop has to do with a rumor that he was a cut candidate by a blog and the fact that Isiah Pacheco is getting hype while earning first-team reps after being a seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The team also still has Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon on the depth chart, creating a crowded room and further fueling doubt on Jones’ role in 2022 with Kansas City.
Ultimately, any report coming out of camp is just noise. Pacheco has likely earned a spot on the team thanks to his return duty and a role as a potential receiving back, but as a seventh-round rookie, he has an uphill battle to get consistent work during the season with the first-team offense. At best, he could be used as a receiver (assuming he shows the ability to pass block this season) and kick returner. Jones may be the best pure rusher on the team and, outside of one blog report, doesn’t seem to be at any risk of being cut before the season. We try not to read too much into early August depth charts, but Jones is even listed as the RB2 (behind Edwards-Helaire) on the team’s first depth chart.
Even if Jones does get cut, it won’t be long before he finds a new landing spot. He’s averaged 4.5 yards per carry throughout his career. Jones has historically struggled in third-down situations (both pass-catching and blocking), but he’s got great size and plenty of juice. If anything were to happen to CEH in Kansas City, he would have wide-open rushing lanes behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. He’s an excellent late-round running back pick, especially if his ADP keeps dropping.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Few players have gotten as much press as George Pickens, who is dominating during his first NFL camp with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pickens is making acrobatic catches and trash-talking his way straight into Steelers fans’ hearts. His ADP has responded to the positive media reports, in turn, jumping nearly two rounds in the last week, moving him up to pick 161. Based on camp reports, it makes sense to see Pickens move up that quickly, but fantasy drafters should be very cautious investing at this current price.
For one, the Steelers have a very crowded group of pass catchers from last season. Diontae Johnson recently signed a two-year extension that will get him back on the field (he had been a hold-in throughout camp) and lock him in as the top receiver. Additionally, Chase Claypool, Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth are all still part of the offense and will earn their targets as well. The biggest concern however is the fact that the quarterback play has been abysmal throughout training camp.
Mitch Trubisky has struggled to complete passes and is allegedly competing with Mason Rudolph, who we have seen struggle during brief periods of starting in his career. First-round pick Kenny Pickett has mostly been playing with backups, and reportedly not well. If the Steelers can’t find a competent quarterback in their three-way competition, it will be hard to imagine a way that Johnson, Claypool, Freiermuth and Pickens can pay off at their ADP. It’s especially hard to imagine many downfield shots to Pickens connecting, which is how he’s expected to win early in his NFL career.
Pickens was an excellent late-round target throughout the offseason and ultimately his 13th-round ADP isn’t an absurd cost. However, if his ADP continues to escalate at its current pace, it’s hard to justify taking him over players in more concentrated passing attacks with better quarterbacks on their roster.
Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers
The only rookie who is arguably getting as much hype as George Pickens on social media is Romeo Doubs. Doubs, the Packers’ fourth-round pick this year, has had an excellent camp, routinely making big plays and establishing himself as a player to monitor in ambiguous passing situations. Doubs has quickly become a fan favorite and is finally being drafted like a player who will have some fantasy relevance, climbing up to pick 186 in the middle of the 15th round. Speaking from experience, I have seen him go as early as the 12th round in some early drafts I have taken part in.
The ambiguity of the Packers’ wide receiver depth chart makes Doubs a very intriguing pick in fantasy drafts but be careful elevating him too quickly. Aaron Rodgers has historically operated as a quarterback who needs to trust receivers to involve them in the passing game. Heading into the 2022 season, that could mean a combination of Allen Lazard, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon and Randall Cobb (yuck) leading the team in targets. Doubs has an uphill battle to get in Rodgers’ good graces, and while he’s been a fun camp story, he will need to carry practice performances into actual preseason action. While he can carve out a role given the lack of talent surrounding him, jumping him into the early teens of fantasy drafts could be a problem.
