NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Patrick Mahomes has been maybe the league’s best quarterback for a few years now, but Justin Herbert could make a case to supplant him as soon as this season. But which elite signal caller should lead your fantasy football rosters for 2022? The consistent, elite Mahomes or the ascending Herbert?
Let’s find out which one you should be targeting in your drafts for this season.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
The Case for Herbert
Justin Herbert has played two NFL seasons and is already legitimately one of the best quarterbacks in the league. After an incredible rookie campaign, Herbert continued to ascend in his sophomore season, throwing 38 touchdowns and passing for 5,014 yards. Only Josh Allen and Tom Brady scored more fantasy points at quarterback than Herbert, who averaged over 22 fantasy points per game. Los Angeles was insanely pass-heavy last year, as Herbert attempted 672 passes, averaging just under 40 per game. The Chargers defense should be much better in 2022 but the AFC West could feature plenty of high-scoring contests that will keep Herbert passing at a high rate. On top of his rocket arm, Herbert also added over 300 rushing yards and almost four rushing attempts per game last season. Herbert has one of the best groups of skill position players in the league around him, as well as an ascending offensive line.
The pace is also very favorable in Los Angeles, as offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi runs a fast offense. During his first season in Los Angeles, the Chargers averaged 25.8 seconds per snap in neutral game scripts, the second-fastest pace in the league behind only the Dallas Cowboys. They also averaged the same seconds per snap when ahead by eight or more points, which was the third-fastest pace in the NFL in that split. However, despite the fast pace, Los Angeles didn’t run no-huddle very often. In fact, the Chargers only went no-huddle about four percent of the time in neutral game scripts, a bottom-15 rate in the league. As a result, the Chargers offense averaged a healthy 66.4 plays per game, the fifth most in football.
The Case Against Herbert
Herbert is one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the NFL, making it difficult to make too many cases against him for fantasy. One thing that I will point out is the fact that the Chargers didn’t take many shots down the field last season, which is odd considering how strong Herbert’s arm is. Lombardi has been around the Saints quick-hitting passing game that featured plenty of short passes. Early during his first season with Herbert, Lombardi had the Chargers running a similar style of offense. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Herbert, who has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, ranked just 21st among qualified quarterbacks in aDOT at 8.0 yards. During that same span, just 10.0% of his pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more down the field, the ninth-lowest rate in the league. Herbert also ranked 19th in yards per attempt during the first half of the season (7.1). The Chargers were below average in terms of routes run down the field as a team in 2021, and according to PFF, nearly 30% of Herbert’s pass attempts came off a combination of hitch and out routes.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
The Case for Mahomes
In 2021, Mahomes threw for nearly 4,900 yards and 37 touchdowns and was the fantasy QB5 — and it was considered a down year. That is just how it goes when you are arguably the best quarterback in football. Mahomes has now tossed 37 and 38 touchdowns over the last two seasons, eclipsing 4,700 yards in both years. The Chiefs offense continues to run through Mahomes, especially with Andy Reid calling the plays. Mahomes has ranked third and fifth in pass attempts over the last two seasons, averaging 39 and 42 pass attempts per game during that stretch. While there were certainly some rough patches over the course of the 2021 campaign, Mahomes still posted an adjusted completion rate of 77%, good for the fifth-highest rate among signal callers with at least 100 pass attempts. The 13 interceptions from a season ago were incredibly unlucky, as most of them came as a result of a dropped pass. In fact, his 27 drops were the eighth most in the league last season. Kansas City remains an elite offense and so many of the touchdowns scored by this team will obviously come from Mahomes. This is a team that hasn’t established a consistent ground attack over the years, especially from in close. Clyde Edwards-Helaire recorded six carries from inside the 5-yard line during his rookie debut two seasons ago. Since that game, however, he’s had six such carries. Mahomes, meanwhile, has ranked sixth and fifth in pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line over the last two seasons.
Like Herbert, Mahomes also plays behind a very good offensive line, except Kansas City’s is even more dominant. The Chiefs sported the league’s fourth-lowest adjusted sack rate a season ago (4.8%), while Mahomes sported the 12th-lowest pressure rate at 31.7%. And while Tyreek Hill is no longer in Kansas City, the combination of Travis Kelce, Skyy Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling gives Mahomes arguably his deepest group of pass-catchers since entering the league.
The Case Against Mahomes
We started to see defenses adjust how they defended Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense last season. There was a six-game stretch last year where Mahomes threw for less than 261 passing yards four times, while failing to reach the 200-yard mark twice during that span. And during that span, Mahomes averaged an ugly 6.25 yards per pass attempt. Was this stretch of play a result of Mahomes no longer being good at football? Of course not. It was, however, a result of opposing defenses changing the way they defended the Chiefs, as well as some other high-powered offenses, this past season.
The two-high safety shell was a popular look from defensive units in 2021 and because the NFL is often a copycat league, many teams deployed this coverage, especially against teams like the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Through the first nine weeks of the season, the Chiefs faced at least two high safeties on over 80% of pass plays, per ESPN Stats and Info. During that stretch, Mahomes averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt, which ranked 24th among all passers. Meanwhile, 19.6% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage (3rd-highest rate), a number that was at 21% over the course of the season, up from his 15.3% mark from the 2020 campaign. Because defenses were so worried about getting beat over the top, Mahomes had to remain patient and take the underneath completions, which wasn’t exactly something he wanted to do. It was a huge reason behind the lack of fantasy ceiling for different stretches of the season and when it was all said and done, Mahomes finished with a career-worst yards per attempt (7.4), and his average depth of target of 7.5 yards was also the lowest of his career.
Perhaps teams don’t play as much two-high against the Chiefs now that Tyreek Hill is in Miami. Hill’s absence could certainly hurt Mahomes’ upside but in five games without Hill since the 2018 season, Mahomes is still averaging 22 fantasy points and 347 passing yards per game, though the passing yards obviously aren’t sustainable.
The Verdict: Justin Herbert
Mahomes and Herbert are two of the best quarterbacks in football but for fantasy football purposes, but Herbert gets the edge for me. I just feel like we actually haven’t seen the best from Herbert just yet and while I’m not overly concerned about Mahomes without Hill in the offense, there is still a decent chance that his absence does change this entire offense, limiting the overall ceiling. Both players are in pass-first offenses that should score plenty of points, but I like the pace in Los Angeles more.
