Fantasy Football Breakouts for 2023

We have reached the largest two weeks of fantasy football draft season, which means if you have yet to draft, time is running out to get prepared. The early rounds of your drafts aren’t exactly rocket science: Draft really good players who score a lot of fantasy points.

Of course, it always sounds simpler than it is, but it becomes even more difficult in the later rounds when you are looking for the next Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tony Pollard or Rhamondre Stevenson. Identifying breakout candidates can often be the difference between hoisting the fantasy trophy and coming up short.

Let’s help you lift that trophy. 

Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates for 2023

Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

A few weeks ago, calling Kenny Pickett a breakout candidate would have been more of a hot take. But it appears the only thing that’s hot is his play throughout the preseason. Pickett was arguably the best player in the NFL this preseason, completing 13-of-15 passes for 199 yards and two touchdowns. The Steelers showed so much confidence in their sophomore signal caller, dropping back to pass early and often, and Pickett was up for the task. This also comes after ending his rookie season on the right note, as Pickett trailed only Josh Allen in PFF’s big time throw rate in Weeks 12-18 (6.9%). I do want to see offensive coordinator Matt Canada scheme some more layups for Pickett, who often had to take deep three-pointers during his rookie season. 11.3% of Pickett’s targeted routes were go routes, the third-highest rate among qualified signal callers, according to FTN Data. However, just 5.8% of his pass attempts were screens (29th), while he ranked dead last in slant route target rate (2.2%). And despite Pickett having the mobility to roll out of the pocket, the Steelers rarely called play-action. In fact, Pittsburgh used play-action just 19% of the time last season, which ranked 29th in all of football. Once Pickett took over in Week 4, his play-action dropback rate of 18.6% was the fifth-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks. Pickett, who ranked fifth in the league in pass attempts from outside the pocket (74), should continue to throw on the run going forward, but let’s set it up with more play action, Pittsburgh. 

Pickett also had an absurdly low touchdown rate of 1.8%, which just isn’t going to happen again. Based off what he showed down the stretch and the fact that the Steelers have good pass-catchers and an improving offensive line, it isn’t difficult to see a breakout sophomore season from Pickett. He also provides value with his legs, averaging 4.2 rush attempts and nearly 20 rushing yards per game. And from the time of his debut (Week 4) on, Pickett ranked sixth among quarterbacks in carries from inside the five-yard line. There is plenty to like here and while it’ll be tough for him to crack QB1 territory, Pickett is a strong QB2 candidate in superflex leagues and a dynasty trade target.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans

Pickett certainly isn’t the only player on the rise following the preseason. Over the final two preseason contests, Dameon Pierce has played every snap with the starting offense, including third downs, which is new for him. During his rookie year in 2022, Pierce logged just 18.6% of Houston’s third downs, one of the lowest rates among qualified running backs. Based on what we’ve seen during the preseason, it appears that rate could legitimately double in 2023, which could be all it takes for Pierce to post a top-12 fantasy campaign. Pierce put together a successful rookie campaign last year, rushing for 939 yards and four touchdowns on 220 carries. A late-season ankle injury sidelined him for the final four weeks of the season, or else Pierce would have easily surpassed 1,000 rushing yards. Through Weeks 1-14 (before the injury), Pierce was the RB15 in fantasy, while ranking seventh in rushing yards (939), 10th in yards after contact per attempt (3.28) and sixth in avoided tackles per attempt (0.28). Pierce had six games with 20-plus touches and should remain the lead running back in what should be a run-first offense. Devin Singletary is a below average pass-catching running back but has been borderline elite when it comes to pass protection, which will keep him on the field on plenty of third and long snaps. But if Pierce can play a little more on third downs this year, he’ll have a true breakout season in year two.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It sure feels like Jaylen Warren is this year’s Tony Pollard, and if Pittsburgh’s preseason usage is any indication, he very well could be. During the preseason, Najee Harris operated as the “starter,” but Warren continued to come in on third downs, while also seeing more work on early downs than he saw last season. It sure feels like the Steelers, who have relied on one running back for years, could finally be shifting their approach. Warren shined in a limited role last season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 3.08 yards after contact per rush on 77 carries. Warren, who had four explosive runs on just 77 carries, continues to vow for more opportunities. The Steelers were very comfortable playing Warren on third downs, as he played more than Harris in those instances. Warren played 52% of Pittsburgh’s third downs this past season, while Harris hovered around 40%. 

Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

Of course, last year was supposed to be the breakout season for Gabe Davis, who was one of the most polarizing players in fantasy during the offseason. However, he struggled with drops, separation and a high-ankle sprain the rest of the way, ultimately finishing as the WR38 in fantasy on a points per game basis. For the first time in his career, Davis was a full-time player, logging 85.5% of the offensive snaps, while his 583 routes run were the 14th-most among wide receivers. While the playing time was great, the usage was not, as Davis was occasionally targeted down the field. His 16.3-yard aDOT was the fourth highest among qualified wideouts, which resulted in an ugly 18.2% target share. Entering the 2023 season, not much has changed for Davis other than his ADP. Now coming off the board as WR42, there is zero risk selecting Davis, unlike last year where he was drafted as a top-30 wideout. Davis has strong post-hype sleeper appeal.

Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders

Jahan Dotson had a strange rookie season. Through the first four weeks, he scored four touchdowns, seeing four end zone targets during that span. He unfortunately suffered an injury and didn’t play until Week 10. Dotson closed the season with three games of 70-plus yards over his final five, scoring three times during that stretch. And in that span, Dotson actually had the same target share as Terry McLaurin. According to FTN Data, Dotson led all wideouts with at least 50 routes against man coverage in fantasy points per target against man coverage (2.5), as he caught 50% of his contested targets. Of course, the touchdown rate is obviously going to come down, but Dotson is an immensely talented player who saw some of the highest upside targets in all of fantasy football. The sophomore wideout has shined alongside Sam Howell during the preseason and is primed for a breakout second season in the NFL.

Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Van Jefferson falls into both the sleeper and breakout category for me, and he is arguably my favorite candidate for the upcoming season. Allen Robinson is gone and whether you think Jefferson will be the Rams WR2 or not (he is), it really doesn’t matter all that much. For Sean McVay and the Rams, it has been 11 personnel (three wide receivers), which has been a staple of this offense for years. In 2021, no team ran more out of 11 personnel than the Rams, at a whopping 86%. That rate was insanely high and up from the team’s 2020 rate of 65%, which was a lot closer to the league average. However, the team has been over the 70% mark in three of the last four seasons, and over 80% in two of those years. And this past season, McVay used 11 personnel over 90% of the time, so Jefferson will be on the field a ton, which was the case for Robinson last year, too. He just didn’t produce. 

Of course, Robinson did not contribute much last season, but this same role should now belong to Jefferson in a much-improved version of the Rams offense with Matthew Stafford healthy. And yes, we know Cooper Kupp is going to get his 30% target share. But with the way the Rams defense looks, they might have to throw so much that Jefferson can still get his alongside Kupp. He should also continue to see high-upside targets, as his 16.6 average depth of target from last season was the third-highest mark among qualified wide receivers. Don’t forget about him on draft day.