College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
(All summer, Adam Pfeifer will be putting the tightest fantasy football picks under the microscope in our ADP Decisions series.)
The NFC East is loaded with talented wide receivers, but perhaps none are more exciting than Terry McLaurin and CeeDee Lamb. Both young wideouts — McLaurin of the Washington Football Team and Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys — are being drafted right around each other in early 2021 fantasy football drafts, and while McLaurin is still being drafted earlier, that gap could tighten as the offseason progresses.
Both are immense talents. Both are still on the rise. But which receiver is the better bet for your fantasy rosters in 2021?
The case for Terry McLaurin
McLaurin’s 2020 numbers were solid, but they don’t even tell the whole story. In 15 games as a sophomore, McLaurin hauled in 87 balls for 1,118 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also had either 70 yards or a touchdown in 10 games and finished as the WR19 in fantasy. Very, very solid numbers, right? But keep in mind that McLaurin did this despite facing a few obstacles. For starters, he played through a pair of ankle sprains, which impacted his play, especially during the second half of the season. Secondly, Washington’s passing attack had little desire to throw the ball down the field.
Yes, McLaurin was the alpha of this passing game, seeing 95 first-read targets, good for the seventh most among receivers. He also handled a healthy 29% of Washington’s receiving yards, tied for the seventh-highest mark in the league. However, he finished just 23rd in air yards (1,296), as Alex Smith was not very aggressive when under center.
Smith averaged an insanely low 5.1 intended air yards per pass attempt in 2020, the lowest mark among all qualified passers. He also averaged just 2.5 completed air yards per completion, the second worst mark in the ahead of only Dwayne Haskins, who also threw passes for the Football Team last year. McLaurin lined up as the left wide receiver on 518 snaps, compared to the right side on 237 snaps. Smith, meanwhile, only posted 10 plays where he threw to the deep left portion of the football field, per FTN’s advanced passing numbers. And as a unit, Washington signal callers combined for just 57 deep passes last year, while the trio of Smith, Haskins and Kyle Allen combined to post an average depth of target of just 6.23 yards, which would have ranked 38th in football.
Now it’s 2021, and things should change in Washington. Journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to start at quarterback, which could be the key to unlocking McLaurin’s ultimate fantasy upside. Fitzpatrick posted a solid aDOT of 8.2 yards last year and is a much more aggressive quarterback than anyone who threw passes for Washington last year. In fact, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, 21.7% of Fitzpatrick’s passes last year were into tight windows, the second-highest mark in the league. He has also ranked inside the top-10 in aDOT in five of his last six seasons, so we should fully expect Washington’s offense to take way more shots down the field this year, which means McLaurin should build on his deep target percentage of just 14% from a season ago. And over the course of his career, Fitzpatrick has liked to lock in on his No. 1 receiver. Whether it was Stevie Johnson in Buffalo or Brandon Marshall with the Jets, Fitz has often relied on his top guy. And while Washington did add Curtis Samuel, make no mistake: Terry McLaurin is still this team’s top guy. The combination of more deep targets and end zone looks, on top of his massive PPR floor, gives McLaurin top-10 upside at the position in Year 3.
The case for CeeDee Lamb
One of my favorite wide receiver prospects in recent memory, Lamb impressed as a rookie, catching 74 balls for 935 yards and 5 touchdowns for the Cowboys. Primarily operating from the inside, Lamb saw 92.7% of his targets from the slot, good for the highest rate among all qualified receivers in 2020. He also lined up out of the slot over 80% of the time, and while the Cowboys have moved Michael Gallup inside a bit during training camp, Lamb still projects to primarily play from the slot once again in 2021. That makes him a matchup nightmare for opposing defense every single week.
Lamb ultimately finished the season as the WR24 in PPR leagues, which is really impressive when you consider that the Cowboys offense fell apart after Dak Prescott went down. In fact, in the five games alongside Prescott, Lamb was the WR11 in fantasy, averaging 5.8 receptions, 7.8 targets and an impressive 86.6 receiving yards per game. Of course, the numbers dropped after Prescott went down, but Lamb was still a top-35 receiver in fantasy the rest of the way. This Cowboys offense was incredible for fantasy with a healthy Prescott at the helm, as they threw the football 40-plus times per game, while also playing at a blistering pace. Dallas was sixth in the NFL in no-huddle plays last season, while also ranking inside the top-five in average seconds per play. And while they did use essentially their entire draft to address the defensive side of the ball, none of the moves they made will suddenly transform this unit into a top-10 one, meaning Dallas will likely continue to play fast and throw the football at a very high rate.
At the moment, you have to consider Amari Cooper the top receiver in Dallas. However, I don’t think it would surprise anyone if Lamb became the top option in this passing game in Year 2. He creates plenty of separation and is already a top-tier receiver when it comes to after the catch ability. But even if he doesn’t, this Cowboys passing attack clearly will be able to support two, if not three, top-35 fantasy wideouts and I expect Lamb’s target share to improve from his rookie season.
The verdict: Terry McLaurin
I absolutely love both these receivers, and it’ll be fun to watch him dominate their division for years to come. But for me, McLaurin has to be the choice here. We’ve seen him play the receiver position at a top-notch level for two years now, and he is set to play with the best quarterback of his career. And while they likely won’t match Dallas’ pace, Washington didn’t exactly play slow under offensive coordinator Scott Turner in 2020. McLaurin has the potential to see 150 targets, which means 90-100 receptions is firmly in play. And with Fitzpatrick under center, I expect the end zone targets to improve. Of course, there should be nothing but excitement surrounding both receivers heading into 2021, as well as the foreseeable future.
