Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, two of our big names step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Brad Evans and Eliot Crist debate — Terry McLaurin or Courtland Sutton? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!
In favor of Terry McLaurin (Eliot Crist)
If you like the finer things in life, you should like getting Terry “F1” McLaurin on your rosters. He may be the best value in all of fantasy right now as he is the 68th overall player off the board and the 24th overall receiver, per the FTN ADP tool. While McLaurin may play for one of the worst teams in football his talent and workload leaves little to be desired.
Standing at 6-foot-0 and 208 pounds, McLaurin is a blazer with an elite athletic profile, running a 4.35-second 40-yard dash. He somehow slipped to the third round in the 2019 draft, but despite that, it took him no time at all to step on the field and start dominating. In his first three games as a pro, he combined for 16-257-3 and cemented himself as the top dog in Washington. He commanded the team’s air yards, seeing a whopping 38.36% of them on 22.9% of the team’s targets. Only seven receivers saw a higher percentage of their teams' air yards — and remember, McLaurin was a rookie. McLaurin is the second-highest graded rookie at the wide receiver position since 2010 per PFF and managed to finish top 20 in yards per route run, yards per target and yards per reception. His efficiency was off the charts as he nearly put up 1,000 yards despite playing just 14 games and seeing just 93 targets. Per Hayden Winks of Rotoworld, McLaurin had “the 24th-most PPR points among rookie WRs in NFL history despite Washington finishing 28th in passing touchdowns and 32nd in passing yards.”
The biggest argument against McLaurin is that his production dropped off when Dwayne Haskins took over for Case Keenum. Haskins looked awful last year as the Redskins were dreadful on offense. Per the FTN Pace tool, the Redskins scored 0.26 points per snap, fifth worst in the NFL. However, teams picked up the pace of play against the Redskins as they had the second-fastest pace against and still finished middle of the pack in offensive plays. As one of the worst teams in the league, sitting with a win total of just 5 with the juice on the under per the FTN prop shop, they should be in a lot of passing situations. Without much competition, there isn't a team ready for a receiver to dominate workload more. McLaurin was able to dominate as a rookie on just 93 targets, meaning an increase in targets gives him a top-10 receiver ceiling at a high end WR3 price tag. Give me that all day long in drafts.
In favor of Courtland Sutton (Brad Evans)
Cue the Spider-Man mirror image meme.
Juxtapose Sutton’s situation over McLaurin’s and they’re nearly identical. Both are working through new offenses. Both have rough-edged quarterbacks. Both are young and dynamic talents. Both are borderline top-20 wide receivers in average fantasy football drafts.
Though the pine-infused air may be playing an influential factor for this Bears fan living in Denver, Sutton is the correct answer. He’s reportedly tearing up camp and is poised to take a step forward after a breakthrough 2019, provided Drew Lock doesn’t follow the path of Brock Osweiler. Recall last year as the vertical workhorse (7.9 yards per target) he accumulated 72 receptions, 1,112 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He, too, ranked appreciably in multiple advanced categories, including contested catch percentage, average depth of target (12.3) and yards after contact per reception. His WR16 standing in total air yards, according to the FTN Air Yards tool, also wasn’t too shabby.
Don’t fret about Jerry Jeudy. As accomplished a route-runner as he showed he could be at Alabama, he’s still a rookie. His learning curve, like any greenhorn, is elongated due to the current times. Even if he picks up Pat Shurmur’s system in a jiffy, Jeudy, through presence alone, could assist Sutton versus double coverage. Last year, the plus-sized weapon posted a modest success rate in those situations.
This is no knock on McLaurin. In a dire offense last fall he emerged as the contested catch king. Still, Dwayne Haskins lends considerable pause. Denver’s overall offensive environment, in the end, is the difference maker.
Stump for Sutton in Round 4 of your 12-team draft.
