Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!
In favor of Patrick Mahomes (Brad Evans)
Off the high of a 50-TD campaign in 2018, Mahomes strutted into last season with the bravado of a dozen Conor McGregors. The heightened confidence was warranted. He’s a generational passer equipped with the arm strength, slot versatility, mobility (15.6 rush yards/game in ’19) and touch to dissect defenses with relative ease. Due to a dislocated knee suffered midseason in Denver, however, he didn’t entirely measure up for fantasy purposes (QB7 in fantasy points/game). Still, he hoisted the hardware in the end, guiding the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl triumph in 50 years.
Slightly discounted in drafts this season (31.2 ADP, QB2), he’s poised to join the rarified company of legends Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Dan Marino as the only passers in history to twice cross the 40-passing TD threshold. He was sensational under pressure and on downfield throws last year (122.9 deep-ball passer rating), yet he impossibly ranked QB33 in red-zone completion percentage. With Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Sammy Watkins and the addition of Brian Westbrook prototype Clyde Edwards-Helaire, he’s poised for a banner 2020.
Action Jackson is an absolute freak, but his production last season is unsustainable. For example, of his 39 end-zone pass attempts, 20 converted for touchdowns. Also, his 0.91 fantasy points per dropback considerably dwarfed No. 2 Ryan Tannehill (0.70). His occasional inaccuracy (Remember the skills challenge?) screams regression! Sportsbook props lend credence to this (e.g. 26.5 pass TDs at DraftKings -110). Plus history isn’t on his side. No QB in league history has topped 900 rushing yards two times. It's conceivable Jackson shaves 300-400 ground yards off last year's 1,206 total.
The nearly half-billion-dollar Mahomes may put ketchup on his steak (Bro, you can’t afford a bottle of A1?!), but there's nothing disgusting about his Round 3 ADP in 12-teamers.
Kiss the ring, plebeians. This year, the true king regains his rightful claim to the QB throne.
In favor of Lamar Jackson (Jeff Ratcliffe)
With all due respect to Patrick Mahomes, Jackson is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. And those words shouldn’t get twisted. If I were building an NFL franchise, I’d choose Mahomes without batting an eyelash. But you don’t get points for quarterback rushing yards in real football. In fantasy football you do, and Jackson’s ability as a runner sets him apart from everyone else at the position.
Jackson etched his name in the fantasy record books last season, and it wasn’t just as runner. We knew he was going to be effective on the ground, but Jackson surprised most of us with his impressive efficiency as a passer. He posted a league-leading 36 touchdown passes and tossed just six picks. Remarkably, Jackson has just two weekly finishes outside of the top 10. Let that sink in.
To be completely fair, it’s reasonable to expect somewhat significant regression in Jackson’s touchdown efficiency. But he could throw 10 fewer scores and still outpace Mahomes in fantasy scoring. And that’s not to knock Mahomes whatsoever. His weekly ceiling is just as high as Jackson’s, but without all those rushing yards, his weekly floor is also lower.
While this is a fun debate for sure, we do need to address the elephant in the room. Both Jackson and Mahomes are amazing, but neither player is worth the price you’ll have to pay for them this year. In 1QB leagues, spending a second-round pick on a signal caller is a huge waste of value. That’s not a shot at Mahomes or Jackson. The position is so deep that you’re much better off drafting a quarterback late.
