WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Each week, two of our big names step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Brad Evans and Eliot Crist debate — Kenyan Drake or Josh Jacobs? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!
In favor of Josh Jacobs (Brad Evans)
The fantasy football community, similar to an exposed tooth nerve screaming after a bite of ice cream, is overly sensitive. Every transaction, especially in these times, with a modicum of potential impact on a player’s value is completely overblown. Take Vegas’ signing of Theo Riddick. The veteran, who may not even make the team, was brought in for depth and nothing more. His arrival, of course, spawned a feeding frenzy on social media as Jacobs doubters stormed the app with doomsday forecasts.
The knee-jerk reactions were comical.
Before his 2019 was cut short due to a shoulder setback, the former Alabama slammer bulldozed the opposition. On 64.6% of the opportunity share (20.1 touches/game), he racked 1,316 combined yards (101.6 total yards per game) and seven touchdowns, finishing RB13 in 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game. His secondary analytics were equally spectacular. He finished RB8 in yards after contact per attempt, No. 6 in total yards created and forced the highest missed tackle percentage (29.7%) of any RB. He lived up to the billing, no matter what tenuous argument some cling to.
Raiders GM Mike Mayock remarked in March “Phase 2” of Jacobs would include a workload increase in the passing game. Various Vegas beat writers have corroborated and supported Mayock’s words since, suggesting he could double last year’s 20-catch output. If indeed true, he’s unequivocally a RB1 in 12-team formats, no matter the scoring system. Keep in mind the Vegas offensive line should be one of the league’s stiffest after ranking inside the top-10 in most run-blocking metrics.
If Jacobs slides into the early portion of Round 2 (RB11, 14.9 ADP), jump all over the opportunity.
In favor of Kenyan Drake (Eliot Crist)
While Drake may be in a walking boot at the moment, I am not concerned. Coach Kliff Kingsbury said he should be good to go for Week 1 and it is just precautionary. People will pull coach talk about Chase Edmonds being a great back, but then they’ll ignore what Kingsbury said about Drake — that he is bigger than people think, that he is an explosive athlete, that they need to get him the ball in space, and that he can handle a full workload.
Often coach talk is just noise, I like to look at the money and draft capital spent. The Cardinals tagged Drake in the offseason making him the sixth-highest paid back this season in all of football, that is a guy who is going to get the football, which means it is more of the same from last year. Drake’s eight-game pace last season would put him at 250 carries, and he saw four or more targets in all but two games last year across both teams he played for. The workhorse role in the Cardinals offense may be the most valuable in all of football and Drake has the locked up.
Last season, the Cardinals starting running back had a top-three overall finish in six of 16 weeks. The ghost of David Johnson, Edmonds and Drake took turns dominating weeks due to the passing-game usage. And this team wants to run more than people realize. The last three weeks last season, when the Cardinals started to play better, be more competitive and win games they finished fourth overall in run percentage. The air raid offense talk often leaves backs as the forgotten man, but Drake only saw eight men in the box on 8.8% of his touches. Drake is a strong option at the turn and a steal in the second round with his projected workload.
