Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, two of our big names step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Brad Evans and Eliot Crist debate — Chris Godwin or Kenny Golladay? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!
In defense of Chris Godwin (Eliot Crist)
The tequila was flowing and Brad was feeling feisty when he challenged me to a Godwin vs. Golladay duel. Even before a word is put down on paper I am a -900 favorite to come out on top here as this is not a true apples-to-apples comparison — Godwin most often goes at the turn in Round 2, while Golladay is a late-third-round pick. All that said, Brad decided to get in the ring, so let’s get this quick debate TKO and cash those -900 tickets.
Godwin has reigned supreme everywhere he has been, whether at Penn State, at the combine or in Tampa Bay. He is a freak athlete at 6-foot-1 and 209 pounds with blazing 4.42 speed. He dominated at the catch point with the third-best contested catch rate in football last year and is a monster with the ball in his hands leading the league with 574 yards after the catch last season. Fantasy football’s No. 2 receiver by points per game last year finished with the third-most yards and now has the best quarterback of all time under center. Yes, Tom Brady isn’t who he was, but Godwin saw a 79% catchable target rate last year (just 41st among receivers). Compare that to Brady’s slot receiver, Julian Edelman, last year, who had the 13th-best catch rate. Despite finishing with the 41st catchable target rate, Godwin finished with the sixth-highest catch rate among all receivers, if you get it close to this man, he is going to come down with the ball.
People will make the argument that without Jameis Winston, Godwin’s volume could drop. But remember, the Bucs were the No. 1 run defense in football last season. They are a pass funnel on defense, which will lead to more positions and plays for the offense. FTN’s Jeff Ratcliffe has Brady projected for the second-most passing yards and the fifth-most passing attempts of any quarterback — does this really sound like a team that won’t have the passing volume to support Godwin?
Godwin had as many 30-plus-point games as he did games with single-digit fantasy points. He is a blossoming superstar who dominates in the slot where his new quarterback has made his living attacking. He has taken a leap forward in every year of his career and after this season there will be no doubts he’s a top receiver in the game. He is a screaming value at the end of the second round, and you would be a fool to pass on him for Golladay.
In defense of Kenny Golladay (Brad Evans)
When it comes to timeless arguments, Golladay versus Godwin ranks up there with the great, “Are boneless wings really wings?” argument. As this 70s-inspired man in Nebraska can attest, there honestly isn’t much of a debate. (BTW, his “chicken tenders” assessment is indisputably correct.)
Golladay wins this head-to-head battle in a landslide. With exhibiting one shred of analytical thinking, one could easily conclude the Lions wideout logged a tremendous 2019. On 116 targets, he hauled in 65 passes for 1,190 yards and 11 touchdowns. His 15.1-yard average depth of target, 18.3 yards per catch and 1,756 total air yards each ranked No. 10 or better at the position. Equally impressive, targeted 34 times inside the red zone, he snagged 14 balls and totaled nine touchdowns. Again, spectacular.
However, dig deeper and Golladay’s benchmark 2019 becomes all more remarkable. Remember, Matthew Stafford missed half the regular season (eight games) with a busted back. The receiver, with chucking chumps Jeff Driskel and David Blough, still performed at an elite level. It’s stunning what he achieved slotting at WR71 in catchable target percentage.
Beat writers repeatedly discussed throughout August how Detroit plans to uncork early and often this season. If they subscribe to an aggressive vertical game plan, Golladay, assuming a healthy Stafford, is in a career year spot. Roughly 75 receptions, 1,250 yards and double-digit TDs are on tap.
Godwin, with increased competition for red-zone looks, is a prime regression candidate.
Go Golladay (And bone-in drenched in mango habanero).
