Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to FAAB Whisperer – my weekly free agent bidding and waivers projection column. You may use these FAAB projections in conjunction with Nelson Sousa’s FAAB sheet – Nelson’s Notebook. Both will focus primarily on mid to high-stakes formats such as NFFC and FFPC.
This column will be published every Wednesday morning of the regular season. I’ll break down the top FAAB targets at each position (QB, WR, RB, TE, DST, TK) with a priority order/ranking and a bid amount range for each player. Bid ranges will be based on a starting FAAB of $1,000.
NFFC and FFPC run their first FAAB Wednesdays (10 p.m. ET). NFFC’s second run is Saturday evenings (10 p.m.) and FFPC’s is Sunday mornings (10 a.m.).
I’ll use the $350 NFFC Online Championship (aka, the OC) as the basis for our weekly data, specifically the %-Rostered of each player. The $350 mid-stakes contest is the perfect framework as they inspire an extra level of seriousness and accountability from entrants, thereby providing a more realistic grasp of the market and projected bid results. Using the OC also allows for a large enough sample to draw from as there will be over 400 leagues (5,000 teams) in this national contest.
Wednesday Update
LATE UPDATE: With Michael Pittman going on IR, Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce get bid range bumps. My assumption is that Pierce remains the one-dimensional deep-threat (though he’ll certainly earn a higher volume of weekly snaps), but Adonai Mitchell is the one with a more stable floor. Mitchell was in on just 19 offensive snaps on Sunday but saw 7 targets on 12 routes. I’d bid on Mitchell ahead of Hutchinson but behind JuJu. Ty Johnson is in the RB pool now with James Cook (foot/toe) banged up. Of course, we should scoop up any loose Ray Davis shares ahead of Johnson, but Johnson would be the better Week 6 stream should Cook miss. Note that the Bills don’t play until Monday.
QB: Increased Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones and Tua Tagovailoa. Added Drake Maye. Reduced Andy Dalton.
WR: Increased JuJu Smith-Schuster. Added Xavier Hutchinson with Nico Collins on IR for a minimum of four games.
TE: Increased Dalton Schultz, slightly reduced Tyler Conklin. Note: the biggest beneficiaries of Collins being out are Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.
RB: Reduced Dare Ogunbowale (Dameon Pierce returning).
Week 5 Overview
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