NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Revised as of 10/1/24, through Week 4
Compiled by Mike Harris
The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
Los Angeles Rams DVOA is penalized slightly in Week 5, giving Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp a 40% chance of returning for Week 6 and an 80% chance of returning for Week 7. They return by Week 8 in all simulations.
Miami’s DVOA is penalized in Weeks 5-6, giving Tua Tagovailoa a 40% chance of returning for Week 7, a 60% chance of returning for Week 8, and an 80% chance of returning for Week 9. In 20% of simulations, Tagovailoa does not return this season.
San Francisco 49ers DVOA is penalized slightly in Weeks 5-6, giving Christian McCaffrey a 20% chance of returning for Week 7, increasing steadily each week until he is back by Week 11 in all simulations.
Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 3-1 | -2.1% | 9.7 | 57.9% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 38.6% | 19.3% |
| DAL | 2-2 | 7.2% | 9.4 | 55.3% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 39.0% | 16.4% |
| PHI | 2-2 | -3.1% | 8.5 | 37.0% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 21.1% | 15.9% |
| NYG | 1-3 | -16.9% | 5.4 | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4-0 | 10.3% | 11.9 | 88.8% | 34.9% | 12.9% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 17.7% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 57.0% | 31.9% |
| DET | 3-1 | 13.2% | 10.5 | 71.9% | 13.3% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 19.3% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 30.0% | 41.9% |
| GB | 2-2 | 8.3% | 9.2 | 44.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 33.8% |
| CHI | 2-2 | -12.3% | 6.9 | 12.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 10.0% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 2-2 | 10.9% | 10.2 | 68.9% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 47.0% | 21.9% |
| TB | 3-1 | 1.0% | 9.4 | 57.0% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 31.1% | 25.9% |
| ATL | 2-2 | -2.3% | 8.5 | 40.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 19.5% | 21.3% |
| CAR | 1-3 | -15.9% | 5.9 | 7.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.7% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 2-2 | 20.2% | 10.4 | 70.9% | 8.4% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 12.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 49.6% | 21.3% |
| SEA | 3-1 | 6.1% | 10.2 | 63.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 41.7% | 22.2% |
| LAR | 1-3 | -3.2% | 7.0 | 13.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 8.0% |
| ARI | 1-3 | -10.5% | 6.2 | 7.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 3-1 | 14.6% | 10.9 | 87.1% | 15.8% | 17.3% | 19.8% | 19.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 71.9% | 15.2% |
| NYJ | 2-2 | 0.2% | 8.4 | 46.1% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 19.0% | 27.1% |
| MIA | 1-3 | 3.4% | 6.9 | 22.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 17.0% |
| NE | 1-3 | -14.9% | 6.2 | 14.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 10.7% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 2-2 | 23.9% | 11.3 | 89.4% | 17.0% | 23.8% | 16.8% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 65.7% | 23.7% |
| PIT | 3-1 | -0.6% | 9.2 | 58.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 18.8% | 39.2% |
| CIN | 1-3 | 7.3% | 8.4 | 44.5% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 30.9% |
| CLE | 1-3 | -8.1% | 6.0 | 11.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 9.9% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 3-1 | 12.8% | 10.6 | 86.7% | 15.1% | 16.8% | 18.9% | 26.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 77.2% | 9.4% |
| IND | 2-2 | -5.6% | 7.9 | 37.4% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 24.3% |
| TEN | 1-3 | -8.8% | 6.3 | 16.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 9.6% |
| JAX | 0-4 | -9.1% | 5.8 | 9.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 4-0 | 14.6% | 12.2 | 95.4% | 41.0% | 21.3% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 85.4% | 10.0% |
| DEN | 2-2 | -7.1% | 7.8 | 33.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 26.1% |
| LAC | 2-2 | -8.8% | 7.5 | 26.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 22.3% |
| LV | 2-2 | -12.0% | 7.0 | 22.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 18.6% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win | 17-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 44.7% | 27.3% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| KC | 46.5% | 25.1% | 13.8% | 0.7% |
| SF | 31.3% | 18.8% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| BUF | 33.7% | 17.3% | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| MIN | 35.8% | 19.5% | 9.1% | 0.4% |
| HOU | 31.9% | 15.6% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| DET | 25.1% | 13.4% | 6.6% | 0.0% |
| NO | 22.6% | 11.5% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| SEA | 17.9% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| DAL | 14.8% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| GB | 11.1% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| TB | 12.3% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| CIN | 8.6% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| WAS | 11.4% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| PIT | 8.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| NYJ | 7.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| ATL | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| PHI | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| IND | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| DEN | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LAR | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LV | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| CLE | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| CHI | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
On the Clock
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| JAX | 15.3% | 50.0% |
| NYG | 12.0% | 48.3% |
| CAR | 11.2% | 45.2% |
| NE | 10.9% | 42.7% |
| CLE | 8.7% | 41.4% |
| TEN | 7.7% | 36.4% |
| ARI | 7.2% | 35.3% |
| MIA | 7.5% | 31.9% |
| LV | 3.4% | 24.9% |
| CHI | 3.0% | 22.7% |
| LAR | 3.1% | 21.0% |
| LAC | 2.3% | 18.9% |
| IND | 2.0% | 15.3% |
| DEN | 1.1% | 11.4% |
| NYJ | 1.0% | 9.6% |
| CIN | 1.1% | 9.6% |
| PHI | 0.9% | 8.7% |
| ATL | 0.5% | 6.4% |
| PIT | 0.2% | 3.5% |
| GB | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| WAS | 0.2% | 3.0% |
| DAL | 0.1% | 2.9% |
| TB | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| NO | 0.1% | 1.5% |
| SEA | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| HOU | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| SF | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| BUF | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| DET | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| BAL | 0.0% | 0.2% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 5.3% |
| Purple Reign | MIN vs BAL | 5.3% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 4.9% |
| Super Bowls LIV-LVIII Rematch | SF vs KC | 4.6% |
| Fifth Time’s The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 3.5% |
| Demeco Ryans Reunion Special | SF vs HOU | 3.1% |
| Chris Berman’s Dream | SF vs BUF | 3.0% |
| Tyrann MathieuReunion Special | NO vs KC | 3.0% |
| David Simon Crossover Bowl | NO vs BAL | 3.0% |
| Danielle HunterReunion Special | MIN vs HOU | 2.9% |
| Mike Macdonald Reunion Special | SEA vs BAL | 2.3% |
| Lake Erie Bowl | DET vs BUF | 2.2% |
| Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch | DAL vs BAL | 1.9% |
| Gulf Coast Challenge | NO vs HOU | 1.9% |
| Hot Sauce Challenge (Frank’s vs. Tabasco) | NO vs BUF | 1.8% |
| 1960 Double Dallas Showdown | DAL vs KC | 1.7% |
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 1.3% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 1.2% |
| Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch | DAL vs BUF | 1.2% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 1.2% |
| Texas Bowl | DAL vs HOU | 1.1% |
| Blue Cheese Bowl | GB vs BUF | 1.0% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 0.7% |
| Super Bowl IX Rematch | MIN vs PIT | 0.6% |
| Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch | SF vs CIN | 0.6% |
| Super Bowl LVII Rematch | PHI vs KC | 0.6% |
| The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam | PHI vs BAL | 0.6% |
| Robert Saleh Reunion Special | SF vs NYJ | 0.5% |
| Who Dey vs. Who Dat | NO vs CIN | 0.4% |
| LeSean McCoyClassic | PHI vs BUF | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XL Rematch | SEA vs PIT | 0.3% |
| DeForest BucknerReunion Special | SF vs IND | 0.3% |
| Chili Cookoff | DAL vs CIN | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl VIII Rematch | MIN vs MIA | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XIX Rematch | SF vs MIA | 0.2% |
| Dan Campbell Reunion Special | DET vs MIA | 0.2% |
| Tyron SmithReunion Special | DAL vs NYJ | 0.2% |
| Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch | DAL vs PIT | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XXIV Rematch | SF vs DEN | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XLIV Rematch | NO vs IND | 0.1% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 0.1% |
| Todd Bowles Reunion Special | TB vs NYJ | 0.1% |
| Terron ArmsteadReunion Special | NO vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXIX Rematch | SF vs LAC | 0.1% |
| Von MillerReunion Special | LAR vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Jessie Bates Reunion Special | ATL vs CIN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch | SEA vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Roquan SmithReunion Special | CHI vs BAL | 0.1% |
| Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special | MIN vs CLE | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XI Rematch | MIN vs LV | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl VI Rematch | DAL vs MIA | 0.1% |
| A Song of Ice and Fire | GB vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl V Rematch | DAL vs IND | 0.1% |
| Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch | WAS vs MIA | 0.1% |
| AAFC Memorial Bowl | SF vs CLE | 0.1% |
| Hail Murray Rematch | ARI vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Tony Dungy Classic | TB vs IND | 0.1% |
| 2019 Peach Bowl Rematch | PHI vs CIN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXII Rematch | GB vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Florida Bowl (South) | TB vs MIA | 0.1% |
