MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
The NFL is on to Week 4. The first three weeks have brought us some big surprises, especially from a fantasy perspective.
Let’s dive into some of the players who are jumping out to me on DraftKings early in Week 4.
Quarterback
Top Play
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans ($8,000)
The buy-low window on Allen is officially closed. He turned in a massive performance last week vs. Washington, finishing with four passing touchdowns and one rushing score. Add in 358 passing yards, and he finished with more than 40 DraftKings points.
He won’t fly under the radar this week vs. the Texans, but he possesses arguably the top ceiling at the position. The Bills are massive favorites in this matchup, and Allen has crushed as a favorite since the start of last season:
The Texans defense has been a bit better than expected to start the year, but the Bills still lead the slate with an implied team total of 31.75 points.
Other Options
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($6,900)
Hurts and the Eagles were dominated by the Cowboys on Monday, but that didn’t affect Hurts from a fantasy perspective. He still finished with 25.54 DraftKings points despite providing much less production than usual as a runner. Hurts has now played at least 55 snaps in six NFL games, and he’s averaged just under 27 DraftKings points in those contests. He’s in an elite spot vs. the Chiefs, who rank dead-last in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA through the first three weeks.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions ($5,200)
Fields was absolutely dreadful in his first career start, and it’s possible that the Bears go with Nick Foles this week if Andy Dalton hasn’t recovered from his injury. However, Fields would be an interesting buy-low target if he does draw the start. He still figures to provide elite rushing production at the QB position, and his matchup vs. the Lions is much friendlier than his previous matchup vs. the Browns.
Running Back
Top Play
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Green Bay Packers ($6,800)
It has been a weird year for the Steelers. They kicked things off with an upset win vs. the Bills, but they’ve lost their past two games to the Raiders and Bengals. Now, they’re dealing with injuries to Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
If both players are ruled out, Harris could command a massive workload vs. the Packers. He saw a ridiculous 19 targets last week vs. the Bengals, and he caught 14 passes for 102 yards. That kind of production as a receiver is obviously super valuable for a running back. He probably won’t see that many targets vs. the Packers, but even seven or eight to go along with his rushing numbers would make him an elite option.
Other Options
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets ($8,800)
The big dog as a big favorite? Yes, please! The Titans will head to New York for a matchup vs. the Jets, who remain the laughingstock of the NFL. They have been walloped to start the season, including a 26-0 drubbing at the hands of the Broncos last week.
The Titans are currently listed as 7.5-point road favorites, and Henry has averaged nearly 26 DraftKings points when favored by at least 6.5 points since 2019:
Henry has also added a bit more value as a receiver this season. He’s caught at least three passes in each game, which is something he did only once during the regular season last year.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles ($5,400)
Edwards-Helaire is not quite as cheap as he was last week, but he’s still underpriced as the Chiefs’ clear top running back. He finished with 100 rushing yards vs. the Chargers in Week 3, and he also added a receiving touchdown.
He should be able to find more success this week vs. the Eagles. They were dominated by the Cowboys rushing attack on Monday, with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard both averaging more than five yards per carry.
Wide Receiver
Top Play
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals ($7,800)
Kupp has been the best player in fantasy to start the year. He’s scored at least 26.8 DraftKings points in all three games, including at least 30.6 in each of his past two. Overall, he’s racked up 25 catches for 367 yards and five touchdowns, all of which lead the league. He’s also seen at least 10 targets in all three weeks.
He’s been priced up to $7,800 vs. the Cardinals, making him the third-most-expensive receiver on this slate. That still feels two spots too low. Byron Murphy is a decent slot corner — he owns a ProFootballFocus grade of 71.7 — but Kupp still has a big edge in this matchup.
Other Options
Corey Davis, New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans ($5,000)
Revenge game! Davis will be taking on his former team on Sunday, and he’s been the Jets’ clear top receiver through the first two weeks. That hasn’t led to a ton of fantasy viability to start the year, but the Jets have faced three tough defenses in the Panthers, Patriots and Broncos. The Titans are much less formidable in that department, ranking just 22nd in pass defense DVOA. If the Jets can give Zach Wilson some time in the pocket, Davis could put together a big game.
Tim Patrick, Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens ($4,900)
The Broncos are down two of their top receivers at the moment. Jerry Jeudy is sidelined with a high-ankle sprain, while K.J. Hamler is done for the year with a torn ACL. Patrick should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s already been productive this season, scoring a touchdown in two weeks and racking up 98 yards in the other, and he should play on close to 100% of the snaps this week.
Tight End
Top Play
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks ($5,900)
Kittle has been priced down to just $5,900, which is his cheapest price tag of the season. He hasn’t had the best start to his season, but he did see nine targets last week vs. the Packers.
Kittle draws a strong matchup this week vs. the Seahawks. He’s expected to match up with Jordyn Brooks, who has been a disaster in coverage this season. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 81% of their passes against him, and opposing tight ends have averaged 0.34 fantasy points per route run. That’s the sixth-worst mark on this week’s slate.
Other Options
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens ($4,300)
Fant was a disappointment last week, finishing with just two catches and 15 yards on three targets. That said, the Broncos really didn’t need to throw the ball much last week. They leaned on their running game and defense vs. the Jets, and Teddy Bridgewater attempted just 25 passes.
They may not have that luxury vs. the Ravens. The Ravens rank 10th in rush defense DVOA, but they’re much more vulnerable against the pass. They rank merely 21st in that department, including 19th vs. the TE position. Fant should be much more involved than he was last week, making him an appealing bounce-back target.
If you want to go super cheap at TE, Albert Okwuegbunam is also viable for the Broncos. He also figures to see a boost in targets given the team’s wide receiver injuries.
