Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Making tough decisions is what fantasy football is all about.
But before the agony of weekly start/sit dilemmas, we have draft day choices to make. Some players have very strange average draft positions right now, which presents a value opportunity in fantasy drafts. Today, we’ll be looking at some players who are being drafted later than other players, but, to me, are the better bet for your fantasy rosters.
All ADP is from Underdog Fantasy.
Draft This, Not That for Fantasy Football 2024
Draft Jayden Daniels (QB11) Over Jordan Love (QB9)
Am I completely overreacting to one preseason game? Perhaps? Am I wrong to? Perhaps. Do I care? Absolutely not.
We know Jayden Daniels has immense upside, and it was showcased during Week 1 of the preseason. In just one drive against the Jets, Daniels threw for 45 yards and rushed for a touchdown. He completed a beautiful deep ball down the sideline to Dyami Brown before rushing for a score from five yards out. It encapsulated just how much upside Daniels has on a per-dropback basis with his skills as a deep ball passer and rusher. Last season at LSU, Daniels tossed 40 touchdown passes, adding over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He was easily the best deep ball passer in the country, leading all of college football in deep passing touchdowns last year (20), while his 1,347 yards on deep passes ranked fourth in the nation. With Washington, Daniels also lands in what should be a fantasy friendly scheme. From 2019-2021 with the Cardinals, Kingsbury’s offenses ranked sixth in early down pass rate (56.5%). During that same span, Arizona was second in average seconds per snap (25.5) and easily first in no-huddle rate (35.5%).
Jordan Love was fantastic last season, finishing as a top-six fantasy signal caller. However, I expect the touchdown rate to come back down a bit, while the rushing upside doesn’t come close to Daniels’.
Draft Isiah Pacheco (RB10) Over De’Von Achane (RB7)
Achane is arguably the most polarizing player in all of fantasy. And admittedly, I am more afraid to not draft him than to draft him. However, as time goes on, the more excited I get about Pacheco’s prospects in 2024. For starters, he was great last year, especially down the stretch. Per the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool, from Week 11 on last year (including the playoffs), Pacheco averaged 18 carries, 80.3 rushing yards, 3.7 targets, 3.6 receptions, 21.6 touches and 19.2 PPR points per game. It was the second consecutive season he was a key piece of Kansas City’s Super Bowl run. Already the clear lead running back for an elite offense, imagine what Pacheco could do if he earned the third down role. According to the FTN Fantasy StatsHub, Pacheco had just one total reception in the two-minute drill all season long, which ranked 45th at the position. He also tallied just four total receptions on third down (35th) — Jerick McKinnon ranked eighth in the league with 15. McKinnon is gone, which means Pacheco, who logged just 15% of the third downs a season ago, could take a massive step forward in that department. If he takes over the third down role, Pacheco has top-five upside.
Draft Diontae Johnson (WR39) Over Jayden Reed (WR35)
I appear to be higher than consensus on Johnson and lower than consensus on Reed, so this is an easy call for me. The volume is going to be on Johnson’s side, especially after what we saw Adam Thielen do in a much, much worse version of this Carolina offense last year. In Weeks 2-11 last year, Thielen saw a 32% target share and 25% target per route run rate. During that span, he posted seven top-25 finishes, averaging just over 19 fantasy points per game. That role now belongs to Johnson, who is also just a better player than Thielen. Reed, meanwhile, is competing for targets with multiple players, including Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks. And if Watson can stay healthy, it is possible we see Reed max out at 5-6 targets per game. In nine games alongside Watson last year, Reed averaged just 4.9 targets, 3.4 receptions and 40.6 receiving yards per game. And although he was still productive, Reed wasn’t exactly a full-time player in year one. Over the course of the season, he ran a route on just 61% of Green Bay’s dropbacks. And during Watson’s healthy weeks (4-13, Reed was operating as the WR3 behind Watson and Doubs.
Draft Michael Pittman Jr. (WR25) Over Stefon Diggs (WR23)
Pittman’s ADP hasn’t made much sense to me all offseason. And with Josh Downs sidelined, you’d think the ADP would rise, but that hasn’t really happened. I have Pittman comfortably ahead of Diggs this season. Shane Steichen implemented his RPO-heavy offense in his first season with the Colts, running it 18.1% of the time, easily the highest rate in the NFL. For reference, the league average last year, according to FTN Data, was around five percent. And when throwing the ball out of RPO concepts, you have time for one read and that’s it. With 53.1% of the team’s RPO targets this past season, Pittman is going to continue to be that read. That should lead to a target share of 27-30% once again.
Diggs, meanwhile, is not seeing the 160 targets he averaged over his four seasons in Buffalo. There wasn’t a ton of competition for targets while he was there, as the highest target share for the WR2 in Buffalo was 17%. Now he’ll have to compete with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. And while I do still believe Diggs has plenty of good football left, it is more than fair to question whether he’s the same elite player.
