Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
A crucial element to projecting players in fantasy is determining their role and the context of the team on which they operate. In this divisional series, we will explore the inner workings of each team. These writeups are loaded with beautiful data visualizations (brought to you by Anthony Amico) that will expose the gears that push these NFL teams forward. When the Week 1 clock strikes kickoff, your coronation as fantasy kings or queens begins.
Let’s dive into the Las Vegas Raiders.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders head coach: Jon Gruden
(2018-present; TB HC 2002-2008)
In Jon Gruden's second year, the Raiders took a step toward respectability, increasing their win total to seven games. The Raiders season could have looked even more promising as well noting that they lost three games by four points or fewer. Gruden's offensive schemes have relied upon running the ball and short passing. Gruden's offenses have finished inside the top 12 in rushing attempts in three of his last five years. Gruden's quarterback club has finished inside the top 10 in net yards gained per pass attempt only twice in his last 10 years on a sideline. With seven draft picks all inside the top four rounds of this past NFL draft, the Raiders will look to mold this roster and continue their climb up the ladder.
Raiders offensive coordinator: Greg Olson
(2018-present; JAC OC 2015-2016; OAK OC 2013-2014)
Despite popular opinion, Derek Carr has been immensely efficient over the last two years in what he's been asked to do. Does Carr push the boundaries and opposing defenses vertically? No. Whether scheme or tendency, both are up for debate regarding whether one of both plays a factor there. Carr was inside the top three in true completion, play-action, and clean pocket passing percentages last year. Carr finished inside the top 10 in yards per attempt last year, but that can be attributed to his pass catchers' abilities after the catch. Between Gruden and Olson, the Raiders have finished 1.35 yards below the NFL average in average depth of target over the last two years. The Raiders addition of Marcus Mariota also adds to the belief they will continue to lean on their skill players to create after the catch. Mariota is also a quarterback that has not been inclined to stretch the field. Mariota’s insistence on taking checkdowns is illustrated by his 2.3 deep ball attempts per game over the last two years. With all the talent added in the receiving department, simply being accurate in delivery could be enough for this offense. The top fantasy quarterback finish under either Gruden or Olson was Blake Bortles' performance in 2015 as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. Carr is best viewed near his QB24 in fantasy points per game finish last year.
Josh Jacobs had a fantastic rookie season for the Raiders, finishing as the RB16 in PPR fantasy points per game. Jacobs exceeded the rushing usage for Gruden’s previous starting running backs with 242 attempts in only 13 games. Over the last 11 years of Gruden’s coaching career, his starting runner has averaged 217 rushing attempts. With the Raiders looking to control the clock and mask an underwhelming defense, Jacobs could match or exceed this mark again. Both sides of the debate for Jacobs’ pass game role remaining stagnant or growing have merit. Over the last seven years for Gruden, his starting back has averaged 71 targets, which would be a sizable uptick for Jacobs. The Raiders retaining Jalen Richard while also adding another capable playmaker in Lynn Bowden could easily put a hard cap on his targets.
Draft picks Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards file in next to Tyrell Williams and Hunter Renfrow as receivers that should make up the core of the receiver room. Gruden's No. 1 receiver saw anywhere between a 20.5-27.0% target share during his final three years in Tampa. While that number is unlikely for any of these receivers to hit, it's notable considering this passing game has been led by the tight end position over the last two years. Over the last two seasons, no receiver has commanded over the 17% target share Renfrow saw in 2019. The target pie slices for the Raiders are a difficult evaluation considering Gruden's Raiders sample and his previous lean to an alpha wideout in the offense. Ruggs’ limited college production resume makes him a tough player to forecast in that role despite his first-round draft capital.
Darren Waller assumed Jared Cook's departed mantel as the target leader last year. Waller finished second in yards after the catch behind only George Kittle. Waller's athletic profile and talent are undeniable as a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. From 2018 to 2019, the starting tight end for the Raiders has commanded an 18-22% target share.
From last year's small samples, Waller's target share is likely to dip with the arrival of other skilled players around him. The question is not if, it's more how deep the nosedive will go for Waller. Just looking at Waller's role after Renfrow was further integrated into the offense is eye-opening. During Weeks 1-7 and games in which Renfrow missed due to injury (nine games), Waller averaged 8.3 targets per game. During the seven games from Week 8-17 in which both took the field, Waller's targets dropped to 6.0 per game. When accounting that other skill players have been inserted into this depth chart this offseason, Waller's target share becomes more worrisome. Waller's talent and use as a matchup nightmare dictate that he won't disappear from the offense, but his days of sitting on the target throne are probably numbered at best.
Raiders pace/pass rate/personnel
The Raiders' overall pace could barely beat a tortoise in a foot race. Overall last year, the Raiders were a bottom-three team in terms of pace. The oddity of this team last year was that they moved quicker with a lead as opposed to trailing. Their pace rank didn't budge when they were trailing, but they climbed to the middle of the pack when they were winning in games.
Last year the Raiders passing rate matched their pace oddity in that they were ranked 26th or lower in passing rate in trailing and neutral game scripts. This gives hope for Jacobs’ carries remaining high even in negative gamescripts. The Raiders, however, were inside the top 10 in passing rate when leading in games. Gruden's passing rate when leading in games has exceeded the league average by a substantial amount in four of his last five years. In three of his last five seasons, Gruden's previous clubs did, however, pass above the league average when trailing. Putting this all together puts the trailing passing rate as a possible outlier, but the passing rate when they are winning games is a trend to remember for a rainy day.
Raiders offensive scheme
After finishing with the eighth-highest rushing rate inside the red zone in 2018, the Raiders finished with a more even split in 2019. Last year the Raiders were 17th in passing and 15th in rushing play percentages inside the red zone. This move to more passing easily could be attributed to increased weapons on the receiving depth chart. Looking back to Olson's final year in Jacksonville also foreshadows the shift possibly continuing this year. Olson ran the most pass-heavy offense in the red zone in 2016, finishing first in red-zone passing play percentage and 32nd in rushing. This could also be attributed to his backfield that year being led by T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory. Still, both the shift from 2018 to 2019 and the Raiders adding Jason Witten, Bryan Edwards, Lynn Bowden and Henry Ruggs are notable as Jacobs' role in the red zone could see a hit this year.
Jacobs saw a sizable role near the goal line last year with the eighth-most red zone carries and 14th-most inside the 5-yard line in only 13 games played. Gruden leaned on the tight end position in the red zone last year heavily, with 30.5% of the red zone targets going to the group. Witten's addition in the offseason makes sense here. Foster Moreau accounted for seven red-zone targets in limited snaps, and with his late-season injury, Witten could be insurance that this function of the tight end position is insulated for the offense.
Raiders defensive coordinator: Paul Guenther
(2018-present; CIN DC 2014-2017)
Guenther’s calling card since his days with the Bengals has been pass defense. Guenther has only once in his last six years fielded a top-10 rushing defense in DVOA. Guenther did, however, enjoy a three-year run with the Bengals with a top-14 secondary in pass defense DVOA. The Raiders desperately need to show improvement in this area as they have finished 30th or worse in pass defense DVOA and explosive pass rates allowed in back-to-back years. The Raiders recognized their weakness in this area by adding Prince Amukamara in free agency and Damon Arnette, Tanner Muse and Amik Robertson in the draft. Pairing newcomer Carl Nassib as a situational pass-rusher with the young tandem of Maxx Crosby and Clelin Ferrell offers promise for the pass defense. If the pass defense can leap into the mid-20s in DVOA like the rush defense, it should be considered a small win for the Raiders’ Las Vegas remodel.
