Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
During the NFL season, we’re going to use the Directional Passing Tool to break down how different offenses are utilizing their weapons all over the field. As the year goes on, patterns begin to emerge that will allow us to anticipate and exploit mismatches between a defense and an offense that we’re targeting.
Short Passing
Cooper Kupp is still well over 150 yards clear of anyone else in this zone. He’s seeing one-third of his targets in the short left portion of the field. Diontae Johnson and CeeDee Lamb are the next highest on this list, also seeing over one-third of their targets in this zone of the field. Hunter Renfrow, one of the surprises on the season, also joins this list. The only non-wide receiver on this list is Najee Harris. The presence of two Steelers here tells you all you need to know about Ben Roethlisberger’s arm strength.
Over the middle of the field, we see three tight ends join this list. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and George Kittle are all here, seeing at least 30% of their targets in this zone. The 49ers are obviously prioritizing this section of the field with Deebo Samuel joining Kittle. Justin Jefferson, who plays Thursday, has also broken off a few big plays on routes over the middle of the field. Targets in this zone have accounted for about 20% of his receiving yards.
Travis Kelce is here as well but is joined by two new tight ends for the short right zone. Dalton Schultz and Dallas Goedert make up the rest of the tight ends on this list. Austin Ekeler is the only running back here and has seen a whopping 42% of his targets here. DeVonta Smith/Dallas Goedert and Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce are the teammate duos doing much of their damage here.
Here’s a look at some of the marquee matchups for this week’s slate:
Deep Passing
Cooper Kupp continues to lap the field in most metrics and is the only receiver in the league with 20 or more targets in this zone. Emmanuel Sanders and Stefon Diggs are the only teammates on this list and show Josh Allen’s willingness to take shots down the field.
This isn’t a typo — Van Jefferson is at the top of this list.
As the FTNFantasy handle on Twitter pointed out, the Rams seem to have a new deep king and it isn’t Odell Beckham. Jefferson has seen the most air yards of any Rams player since Week 10.
Ja’Marr Chase has quieted down a little bit after his hot start to his rookie campaign but still holds the lead here with 288 receiving yards. Deebo Samuel has gained over 20% of his total receiving yards despite seeing just 9% of his targets here.
Here’s a look at some of the marquee matchups for deep targets on this week’s slate:
