Darren Waller 2022 Prop Bets: Receiving Yards, TD Predictions

Before the start of the 2019 season, the then-Oakland Raiders were featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks. Tight end Darren Waller quickly became one of the main characters as the series detailed his struggle with addiction and attempted comeback in the NFL.

Throughout the show, he displayed his unique athleticism on the field and his humility off it, making him one of the easiest players to root for in the league. Then, Waller surprised and delighted fans with a breakout campaign during which he recorded 90 receptions and over 1,100 yards, cementing his status as a fan favorite.

After putting together two consecutive elite seasons, Waller dealt with injury last year. Now, he’ll look to remind everyone why they were so enamored with him and why he was regarded as a top-tier tight end in 2019 and 2020. 

Waller’s receiving yards prop is currently set at 850.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook while his touchdown prop is listed at 5.5. With Davante Adams arriving in Las Vegas this offseason, there are a lot of questions about how the tight end’s role will change in the offense with a new alpha wide receiver in town.

Here, I’ll dig into Darren Waller’s receiving props and explain why Davante Adams’ presence could benefit Waller in some respects and hurt him in others.

Darren Waller Prop Bets for 2022

(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

How Many Receiving Yards will Darren Waller Have in 2022?

Over 850.5 (-135)

Last season, Darren Waller accumulated just 665 receiving yards and now, Davante Adams has arrived to reconnect with his college quarterback. He’s going to steal a bunch of targets and yards, leaving Waller with the scraps and making the under the easy pick here, right? 

Wrong. While there is some truth to that, Adams’ arrival may actually benefit Waller when it comes to receiving yards. First, Derek Carr finished fifth in the league with over 4,800 passing yards last season, and he’s plenty capable of supporting multiple pass catchers.

In fact, in 2021, Las Vegas was one of just eight teams to have four or more 500-yard receivers and one of only four teams with seven or more 300-yard receivers. Two of those receivers — Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards – are out of the picture now. The Raiders have been lacking a true alpha wide receiver, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t enough volume to go around.

Second, with Adams on the outside, Waller should be less of a focal point for opposing defenses. That will give him more 1-on-1 opportunities down the field, where Carr tends to look for him. In 2021, he ranked first among all tight ends in deep target percentage and his aDOT reached a career high.

His trouble last year came via inefficiency and injury. He missed six games, but his 17-game pace was 145 targets, 88 receptions and over 1,050 yards. A 145-target pace is elite, but an underwhelming 59% catch percentage negatively impacted his reception and yardage totals.

The bottom line is that with Adams in the fold, Waller’s volume could dip while his efficiency rebounds. I’m betting that he benefits from his existing rapport with Derek Carr and an eased defensive focus to top 850 yards.

How Many Touchdown Receptions Will Darren Waller Have in 2022?

Under 5.5 TD Receptions (-110)

This is where Davante Adams hurts Waller. He’s only hauled in more than three touchdowns in a season once, and now he’ll share the field with two receivers who are as good as or better than he is around the end zone.

He did record the second most red zone targets in 2020 – Adams was first – but he ranked outside the top-20 in end zone targets. Still, he managed nine touchdowns. In 2021, he was on pace for 23 red zone targets, which would have ranked at the back end of the top-10, but Hunter Renfrow and Adams both finished in the top five.

Renfrow’s emergence made Waller’s first-option status in the red zone shaky to begin with, so it’s all but gone with Adams in the mix. Another wrench to throw in here is that Derek Carr’s 4,800 yards only resulted in 23 passing touchdowns. While there’s on ton of yardage volume to go around, touchdowns are a different story with Carr. He hasn’t thrown 30 touchdowns in a season since 2015. 

The Raiders’ offense projects to be better overall this year, which could lead to more touchdown opportunities, but I don’t expect Waller to score more than five. Even with Las Vegas’ fourth-highest red zone pass rate, he was pacing for just 4.5 touchdowns over 17 games. New head coach Josh McDaniels called plays for New England last season – who ranked 24^th in red zone pass rate – so there could be a heavier focus on the running game inside the opposing 20-yard line.

As possibly the tertiary red zone receiving option in Las Vegas, I’m out on six or more touchdowns for Darren Waller.

How to Bet Darren Waller Props

If you are looking to bet on props like receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, FTNBets has all the tools to get you started. Sign up for a sportsbook account using our affiliate link and take a deep dive into all the different NFL futures markets that legal books offer. 

Darren Waller’s 2022 receiving yards prop is set at 850.5 yards and the over has -135 odds. In this example, you would need to bet $135 that Waller will have more than 850.5 receiving yards in order to make a $100 profit.

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