Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boosts bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage.
Four days a week, I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts across the industry and where you can find them.
The Wednesday slate is absolutely loaded with sports betting options. We have a full day of big-time soccer, with six of the top 10 teams in the English Premier League taking the field. UFC Fight Night takes place on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. And Tiger Woods gets set to make his return to the golf course after a five-month layoff for the Memorial Tournament.
If you’re looking for even more value, make sure to subscribe to Fade the Noise Bets before 3 p.m. ET to take advantage of the final day of our early bird pricing!
Let’s dive in.
English Premier League Odds Boost
Burnley vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (1 p.m. ET)
Manchester City vs. AFC Bournemouth (1 p.m. ET)
Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur (1 p.m. ET)
Boosted bet: Wolves, Manchester City, and Tottenham all to win — +360 on FanDuel (was +272)
This odds boost gives you the opportunity to parlay three of the better sides in the English Premier League for a slightly better payday.
Man City is expected to wipe the floor with Bournemouth given their -800 moneyline odds, which makes sense given their differential in the standings. Man City is currently sitting in second place, while Bournemouth is squarely in the relegation zone in 18th.
Tottenham is another solid favorite vs. Newcastle, although their -160 moneyline odds aren’t nearly as large.
The biggest question mark here is Wolves, who are just -105 vs. Burnley. That said, they have a ton to play for in this contest. They’re currently sitting in sixth place in the EPL, which would earn them the last qualifying spot for the Europa league.
Overall, parlaying a -800 favorite, a -160 favorite, and a -105 favorite should result in a payout of roughly +257, so getting this bet for +360 is ultimately pretty appealing.
For a more in-depth preview of Wednesday’s EPL action, make sure to check out Blake Hampton’s full breakdown.
UFC Odds Boost
Fight Island (7 p.m. ET start time)
Boosted bet: Calvin Kattar to win vs. Dan Ige — -139 on BetMGM (was -313)
It’s pretty rare to see such a large odds boost on such a massive favorite.
Kattar is widely expected to care of business against Ige in the main event for Wednesday’s UFC card. He’s coming off an impressive knockout win against Jeremy Stephens in his last fight, which vaulted him to the No. 8 ranking in a stacked featherweight division.
Meanwhile, Ige is undefeated since his UFC debut in January of 2018, but his last two fights have been narrow victories. This is a huge opportunity for Ige, but it’s a big step up in competition.
Make sure to check out our previews for Fight Island, including Jon Kelly’s best bets and the rest of our staff’s favorite picks.
PGA Odds Boost
The Memorial Tournament (7 a.m. ET Thursday start time)
Boosted bet: Tiger Woods to make the cut — +125 on DraftKings, +100 on FanDuel, -160 (and dropping) on PointsBet
Tiger’s return to the course is obviously garnering a ton of attention in the betting space. There are plenty of Tiger Odds Boosts available throughout the industry, but none are as appealing as his odds to make the cut.
DraftKings, FanDuel and PointsBet have all moved his odds to make the cut to around even money, which is just way too low for a golfer of Tiger’s caliber. He may not be as dominant as he was in his prime, but he’s still made the cut in 89% of his tournaments over the past 75 weeks. This is a pretty tough field, but clearly his true odds of making the cut are not being reflected in those odds.
PointsBet is currently offering the “worst” odds at -160, but that number should continue to drop. This is one of their “crowd boosters,” so they drop the odds with every 100 bets that come in on it. This bet started at -275 and has already dropped to -160, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see it continue to fall.
Boosted bet: Any American to win the tournament — +100 on BetMGM (was -200)
This bet came through for us last week with Collin Morikawa, and this field is even more stacked with elite American golfers. Of the 12 golfers with the top odds to win the tournament, nine are American.
Boosted bet: Bryson DeChambeau, Rory McIlroy or Justin Thomas to lead after Round 1 — +850 on FanDuel (was +643)
Golf can already be a somewhat volatile sport to wager on, and betting on the first-round leader is even more volatile. That said, if you’re interested in backing one of the favorites to be the Thursday leader, this is a great way to do it. DeChambeau, McIlroy and Thomas have the shortest moneyline odds in the field, so it wouldn’t be a huge shocker to see any of them at the top of the leaderboard.
