Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boosts bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage.
Four days a week, I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts and where you can find them.
Today’s odds boost piece is centered around the NBA. There are seven games on the Sunday slate, starting with the Thunder vs. the Wizards at 12:30 p.m. ET. We’ll also take a look at an odds boost for Dustin Johnson, who is the leader heading into the final round of the PGA Championship.
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Let’s dive in.
NBA Odds Boost
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers (6:40 p.m. ET)
Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets (8:10 p.m. ET)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Brooklyn Nets (9:10 p.m. ET)
Boosted bet: 76ers, Rockets, and Clippers all to win — +305 on DraftKings
This is a nice odds boost for the three late games on the Sunday slate.
The Clippers enter the contest as massive -950 favorites vs. the Nets. Brooklyn will likely be without Joe Harris, Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen, while the Clippers will have a fully rested Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup. They should be able to take care of business.
The Rockets are slightly smaller favorites at -255, but they still have a nice advantage vs. the Kings. They will be without Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon for the second straight game, but James Harden should be able to pick up the slack. No one in the league can match his combination of volume and efficiency, so a few additional touches for Harden could actually be a positive for them.
Last but not least are the 76ers, who enter their matchup vs. the Blazers as slight underdogs. That’s not all that surprising with Ben Simmons out of the lineup, but you could make an argument that the 76ers are better off without him. They’ve averaged a Net Rating of +0.9 points per 100 possessions with Simmons and Joel Embiid on the court this season, but that number jumps to +9.8 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on and Simmons off.
Regardless of what you think about the 76ers, this bet makes sense from a purely mathematical standpoint. The 76ers are +132 on the moneyline, and a three-team parlay with the 76ers, Rockets, and Clippers has true odds of +257.
Boosted bet: Rockets to win and James Harden to make at least six 3-pointers: +380 on FanDuel (was +330)
This is an interesting correlated parlay. Harden has made at least six 3-pointers in 22 of his 65 games this season (33.8%), and the Rockets have won 21 of those contests.
Harden has also posted a massive usage rate with Westbrook and Gordon out of the lineup this season, so he should get plenty of shots up from behind the arc.
Boosted bet: Portland Trail Blazers to make the postseason — +200 on FoxBet
The Blazers suffered a setback Saturday when they blew a late lead vs. the Clippers, but they remain a very real threat to make the postseason. They currently trail the Grizzlies by 1.5 games for the No. 8 seed, but they hold a slim lead over the Suns and Spurs for the No. 9 spot. As long as they fall no lower than ninth, they will have a shot to play their way into the playoffs.
The Blazers have been a completely different team in Orlando after getting Jusuf Nurkic and Zack Collins back from injury. They definitely have the talent to beat the Grizzlies twice in a row even if they can’t jump them for the No. 8 seed.
If you’re looking for more betting info on the Sunday slate, make sure to check out Zachary Cohen’s full breakdown and our staff’s favorite picks.
PGA Odds Boost
PGA Championship
Boosted bet: Dustin Johnson to make at least five birdies — +120 on BetMGM
DJ enters the final round with a one-stroke lead over Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Champ and a two-stroke lead over Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikowa and Paul Casey. That should set up an exciting Sunday.
With that in mind, DJ will probably have to stay aggressive to ensure the win. He can’t just look to make pars and avoid bogeys to hold off such an impressive group of challengers.
Johnson has averaged 4.06 birdies per round in 2020, and he’s coming off eight birdies Saturday. He also recorded five birdies Friday, so he definitely has the potential to do it again in the final round.
