Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boost bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage. Four days per week I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts and where you can find them.
Monday is a little bit light on sports action, but we do have some major soccer contests to target in the English Premier League and the Italian Serie A. Opening Day is also right around the corner for Major League Baseball, so there are a few different odds boosts available popping up around the industry.
If you’re looking for more betting value, make sure to subscribe for our platinum FTN Bets packages for the NFL, NBA, MLB and whatever other sports you’re interested in betting on.
Let’s dive in.
English Premier League
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Crystal Palace — 3:15 p.m. ET start
Boosted Bet: Wolves to win — +100 on BetMGM (was -200)
This is a huge matchup for Wolverhampton. They currently sit in seventh place in the Premier League table, and the top six teams qualify for European Football next season. That said, they’re only two points behind Tottenham for the No. 6 spot, and Tottenham has played one additional game. If they can take care of business today, they will control their own destiny for a spot in the Europa League.
Luckily, they shouldn’t have too much trouble vs. Crystal Palace. They currently rank just 14th in the EPL standings, and they’ve been outscored by 17 goals through 36 games. They were able to record a draw with Wolverhampton in their first meeting this season, but that game was played at home.
This line is simply too good to pass up for the Wolves. They are listed at -200 or worse to record the win at virtually every other sportsbook, so grabbing them at even money on BetMGM represents a ton of value.
Italian Serie A
Juventus vs. Lazio — 3:45 p.m. ET
Boosted Bets: Cristiano Ronaldo and Ciro Immobile to both score — +400 on FoxBet
Paulo Dybala to score and Juventus to win — +235 on DraftKings (was +205)
This matchup features two of the top four sides in Serie A, which should lead to an exciting contest.
Juventus has been the class of Serie A for as long as I can remember, and they are currently sitting at the top of the table. That said, the gap between them and the rest of the division isn’t as large as it’s been in the past. They currently own a goal differential of +35, which ranks third in the league.
Lazio currently sits in fourth place, but their goal differential of +33 is very similar to Juventus’.
Both teams feature tons of attacking prowess, led by Ronaldo for Juventus and Immobile for Lazio. Ronaldo has found the back of the net 28 times through his first 29 Serie A games, and Immobile has scored 29 times through 32 contests. Both guys are averaging nearly 1.0 full goals per 90 minutes, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see both find the scoresheet today.
If you want to go in a different direction, you could back Juventus to win and Dybala to score. He hasn’t been nearly as prolific as Ronaldo this season — he’s averaged 0.51 goals and 0.38 expected goals per 90 minutes — but he has scored in four of his past six games. Juventus is also expected to take care of business at home given their -220 moneyline odds.
Major League Baseball
Boosted Bets: Yankees to beat the Nationals on Opening Day — -115 on PointsBet (was -140)
Gleyber Torres to win AL MVP — +2400 on William Hill (was +1800)
I touched on the Yankees’ opening day odds in yesterday’s piece, and the line on PointsBet continues to improve. It is one of their “crowd booster” promotions, which means that the line will drop with every 100 bets that are placed on the Yankees. This line could reach even money or better by the time Opening Day rolls around (Thursday at 7 p.m. ET), which would represent a good bit of value with one of the odds on favorites to win the World Series.
If you’re looking for another way to back the Yankees this season, consider Torres to win the AL MVP. He’ll have to navigate a loaded field, but it has the potential to be a little more open than in the past. Mike Trout has expressed concerns about playing this season. Mookie Betts moved to the National League. Who knows what’s going to happen with Alex Bregman and the Astros.
The 60-game regular season should also result in a bit more variance than a full 162-game season.
With that in mind, why not take a chance with a talented young hitter from one of the best teams in the league? He clubbed 38 HRs last year at just 22 years old, and he should only continue to improve as he gets older. The fact that he plays for the Yankees shouldn’t hurt either: They lead all AL teams with a win total of 37.5.
If Torres ends up being the best player on the best team in the AL, that will undoubtedly give him a shot for the MVP.
If you’re looking for more MLB coverage heading into Opening Day, make sure to check out John L’s breakdowns for AL and NL futures.
