Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boosts bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage.
Several times a week, I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts and where you can find them.
Monday’s odds boosts are all about the NBA. The playoffs get underway with the Denver Nuggets vs. the Utah Jazz at 1:30 p.m. ET, and that will be followed by three additional games. Overall, you can watch basketball basically from 1:30 p.m. to midnight ET, and there are odds boosts available for all of those contests.
If you’re looking for more value, make sure to subscribe for our platinum Fade the Noise Bets packages for the NFL, NBA, MLB and whatever other sports you’re interested in betting on.
Let’s dive in.
NBA Odds Boost
Boosted bet: Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Clippers all to win their first-round matchups — +125 on DraftKings Sportsbook (was +100)
This is a nice odds boost for three teams that are expected to take care of business in the first round of the playoffs.
It starts with the Clippers, who are approximately -550 favorites vs. the Dallas Mavericks. They rank second in Net Rating this season, despite the fact that they have rarely had their full lineup available at the same time. They are still dealing with a few injuries — Patrick Beverley, Landry Shamet and Montrezl Harrell are all questionable for Game 1 — but they should be back to 100% shortly. Regardless, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George should be enough to be able to propel the Clippers to a deep playoff run.
The Nuggets haven’t been as good as the Clippers this season, but they got a nice draw in the first round vs. the Jazz. Utah really struggled in the bubble without Bojan Bogdanovic, and now they will be without Mike Conley for at least the first few games. The Jazz have been outscored by -6.8 points per 100 possessions with both Bogdanovic and Conley off the court this season, so the Nuggets should be able to get past them.
The Celtics have arguably the toughest first-round matchup vs. the 76ers, but Boston is probably a bit underrated at the moment. They ranked fourth in Net Rating this season, and they were second in Net Rating inside the bubble. The 76ers posted a record of 3-1 vs. the Celtics during the year, but Ben Simmons did a wonderful job limiting Jayson Tatum in those contests. Simmons obviously won’t be available for this series, which should make life easier for them that it was during the regular season.
Boosted bet: Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks both to sweep their first-round matchups — +225 on DraftKings Sportsbook (was +200)
I highlighted this odds boost in Sunday’s piece at +340 — and you should obviously still grab that at BetMGM if you can find it — but this is a decent consolation prize. The Bucks and Raptors are two of the best teams in basketball, and they are facing arguably the two worst teams in the playoffs in the Orlando Magic and Brooklyn Nets. Both teams are favorites to sweep these series, so parlaying them together for a payout of +225 a solid value.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics (6:30 p.m. ET)
Boosted bet: Joel Embiid over 0.5 dunks — +200 on FoxBet
This should be a pretty easy bet to win, but you will be limited to a small wager. Still, who doesn’t want free money?
All you need to cash this ticket is one dunk from Embiid, who figures to have the ball in his hands a ton. He’s posted a usage rate of greater than 38% in games without Simmons this season, so asking him to record one dunk shouldn’t be very difficult.
Brooklyn Nets vs. Toronto Raptors (4 p.m. ET)
Boosted bet: Caris LeVert at least 20 points scored — -125 on BetMGM (was -250)
This is one of the biggest boosts of the day in terms of value, and LeVert should have plenty of opportunities to score the ball vs. the Raptors.
The Nets are playing without Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie in the bubble, and LeVert has increased his usage rate by +9.9% with both players off the court. That results in an average of 30.7 points per 36 minutes.
The Raptors are a tough matchup — they rank second in defensive efficiency this season — but it would take a disastrous shooting performance to keep LeVert under 20 points in this game. I’m all in on this boost.
