Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boosts bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage.
Four days a week, I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts and where you can find them.
Friday’s odds boost piece will be centered around the return of Major League Baseball. There are 14 games to choose from, starting with the New York Mets at the Atlanta Braves at 4 p.m. ET. We’ll also look at a couple odds boosts available for the main event of UFC Fight Island 3, which will take place on Saturday night.
If you’re looking for more value, make sure to subscribe for our platinum Fade the Noise Bets packages for the NFL, NBA, MLB, and whatever other sports you’re interested in betting on.
Let’s dive in.
Major League Baseball Odds Boost
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (4 p.m. ET start)
Boosted bet: Jacob deGrom over 7.5 strikeouts — +200 on DraftKings
DeGrom wasn’t quite as dominant in 2019 as he was in 2018, but he was still good enough to win the NL Cy Young. He pitched to a 2.43 ERA while averaging 11.25 strikeouts per nine innings, and he posted a dominant 1.44 ERA following the All-Star break.
He’ll face a tough test against the Braves, who were NL East division champs last season. That said, they do have some swing-and-miss in their game. Six of their projected starters had a strikeout rate of at least 19.6% last season, and four had a mark of 24.1% or worse. DeGrom had the fifth-highest strikeout rate among qualified starting pitchers last season, so he’s definitely capable of piling up Ks.
He recorded at least eight strikeouts in 56.25% of his starts last season, so getting +200 on over 7.5 feels like a nice value.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (7 p.m. ET start)
Boosted bet: Cubs to win and Kris Bryant to hit a HR — +600 at William Hill (was +500)
This is expected to be a close contest, with the Cubs checking in as just -125 favorites at home. With that in mind, why not take a look at a little correlated parlay?
If Bryant does hit a HR, the Cubs’ odds of winning should theoretically increase. As far as I know, you can’t win a baseball game without scoring any runs.
Bryant has failed to replicate his MVP-caliber numbers from 2016, but he did club 31 homers last year. He has a tough matchup against Brandon Woodruff, but his biggest flaw is that he tends to allow a bunch of fly balls. Fly balls have a tendency to turn into home runs, especially against guys like Bryant with plenty of pop.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (7 p.m. ET start)
Boosted bet: Over 8.5 runs scored and Phillies to win — +230 at FoxBet (was +205)
The Phillies are one of the largest favorites on the Friday slate, which makes sense given their large advantage on the mound. They will turn to Aaron Nola, who is just two years removed from posting a 2.37 ERA. He shouldn’t have a ton of problems mowing down the Marlins, who were the second-worst team in baseball last season vs. right-handed pitchers.
The Marlins will send Sandy Alcantara to the mound, and his ERA was a respectable 3.88 last season. That said, his advanced metrics suggest he was one of the luckiest pitchers in the league. His xFIP was significantly higher, at 5.17.
The Phillies lineup should be able to do some damage in this matchup, which makes +230 on the over and a Phillies win an interesting combo.
If you’re looking for more baseball action, make sure to check out our daily betting guide and our staff’s favorite picks.
UFC Fight Island 3 Odds Boost
Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till (main card starts at 8 p.m. ET)
Boosted bets: Whittaker to win — +105 at PointsBet (was -115)
Fight to end via KO/TKO — +110 on FanDuel (was -130)
Whittaker/Till is the main event for Fight Island 3, and it is expected to be a close contest. Whittaker is the slight favorite at the moment — his odds are around -125 across the industry — but you can grab him at better than even money on PointsBet. He’s coming off a defeat in his last fight, but that is the only loss in his past 10 contests.
There is also a decent chance that this fight does not make it to the judges’ scorecards. Whittaker has recorded a knockout in 48% of his wins, while Till has recorded one in 59% of his. This will be a five-round contest, which gives both fighters plenty of time to put the other guy on the canvas.
Jonah Shiffman breaks down Whittaker vs. Till and the rest of the UFC Fight Island 3 card.
