Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a great time to be a sports bettor. As sports betting becomes legal in more and more locations, the various sportsbooks are all vying for your business.
Targeting daily odds boosts bets can be one of the best ways to take advantage.
Four days a week, I’ll be highlighting some of the best odds boosts and where you can find them.
Friday’s odds boosts are focused on the English Premier League and the second round of the Memorial Tournament. There isn’t a ton going on in the sports world outside of those two events at the moment, so we’ll also focus on some odds boosts for UFC Fight Island 2 and the start of the Major League Baseball season.
If you’re looking for more betting value, make sure to subscribe for our platinum Fade the Noise Bets packages for the NFL, NBA, LB, and whatever other sports you’re interested in betting on.
Let’s dive in.
PGA Odds Boost
Memorial Tournament
Boosted bet: Justin Thomas, Bryson Dechambeau and Patrick Reed to win their second-round 3-balls — +900 on FoxBet
Thomas, Dechambeau and Reed are all ranked in the top eight of the world golf rankings, and Thomas and Dechambeau were among the betting favorites heading into this tournament.
That said, none of these three golfers lit the world on fire Thursday. Reed led the group with a score of -1, while Thomas and Dechambeau combined to shoot +3.
All three are definitely solid candidates to bounce back in Friday’s action. No one is gaining more strokes off the tee than Dechambeau at the moment, who continues to absolutely pummel the golf ball. Thomas also gained strokes off the tee, on approach shots, and around the green in the first round but was ultimately done in by a cold putter.
These guys will have to navigate some tough threesomes, but they’re all extremely capable of going low.
English Premier League Odds Boost
West Ham United vs. Watford (3 p.m. ET start)
Boosted bet: Both teams to Score — +100 on BetMGM (was -134)
There’s only one match in the EPL Friday, and it features two teams in the bottom part of the standings. West Ham currently sits in 16th place, while Watford sits in 17th. Both teams own just a three-point lead over AFC Bournemouth in 18th, and they’ll need to avoid falling below 17th to ensure a spot in the Premier League next season. Both teams still have plenty to play for.
Both teams have struggled defensively this season, so the over/under on this contest is set at 2.5. These teams combined for four goals in their first matchup this season, and both teams were able to find the scoresheet.
Make sure to check out Blake Hampton’s preview for a more in depth breakdown of today’s matchup.
UFC Odds Boost
Fight Island 2 (5 p.m. ET Saturday)
Boosted bets: Deiveson Figueiredo to win by TKO/KO — +125 on PointsBet (and dropping)
Jack Hermansson vs. Kelvin Gastelum to end by TKO/KO — +190 on FanDuel (was +165)
Figueiredo, Gastelum and Ariane Lipski all to win — +400 on DraftKings (was +360)
The UFC gets right back to business Saturday with Fight Island 2. The event features five fights on the main card — including all three fights included in the odds boosts — and another seven fights in the prelims.
Figueiredo is a pretty heavy favorite in his fight and is coming off a knockout win in his last outing. This bet is one of PointsBets’ “crowd boosters,” so the line should continue to drop as we get closer to fight time. They move the odds after every 100 bets, and everyone who participates gets the value of the closing line. This bet opened up at -115 and is already down to +125.
You can also get an odds boost on FanDuel if you think the Hermansson vs. Gastelum fight will end in a TKO/KO. Hermansson has won 55% of his 24 fights via TKO/KO, while Gastelum has ended his fights by TKO/KO 44% of the time.
Finally, you can parlay Figueiredo, Gastelum, and Lipski together for a solid +400 payday on DraftKings. Lipski is a -125 favorite and Gastelum is -114, so the true odds on parlay between those three fighters should be closer to +388. That isn’t a ton of value, but why not grab it if you believe in those three fighters?
As always, make sure to check out Jonah Shiffman’s full breakdown for Fight Island 2 as well as our staff’s favorite bets.
Major League Baseball Odds Boost
Boosted bet: Philadelphia Phillies to win the World Series — +2500 on William Hill
Believe it or not, the MLB season starts in just six days.
The Phillies could be an interesting team to target as a title favorite. They added Zack Wheeler as a big-money starter in the offseason, and some teams are expecting him to thrive with a more analytically driven organization. His most comparable starter in terms of Statcast data last season was Gerrit Cole, and we all know how he thrived after a team change.
They also brought in Didi Gregorius, who is an above-average contributor at the shortstop position.
They were also aggressive during the offseason two years ago, bringing in Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. Overall, there is plenty of talent on this roster.
