Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Detroit Lions addressed a glaring need at wide receiver Tuesday, agreeing to a one-year, $10 million contract with D.J. Chark. That’s by no means a massive deal for Chark, especially given the $18 million annual contract Christian Kirk netted from Chark’s former team the Jacksonville Jaguars. But he will get a chance to prove it following an injury-plagued 2021 campaign where Chark played just four games.
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Heading into the 2022 offseason, the Lions had arguably the league’s thinnest wide receiver depth chart. With Amon-Ra St. Brown and a whole lot of nothing else at wide receiver, Chark has a prime opportunity to step right into a big role. Of course, the Lions do also have a high-volume tight end in T.J. Hockenson.
A surprise breakout in 2019, Chark topped 1,000 receiving yards and posted eight scores on 73 catches. He finished as fantasy’s No. 18 wideout that season and seemed poised to be a fantasy mainstay. Well, that hasn’t happened. In 2020, Chark battled injuries and his numbers regressed. He managed a disappointing 48th-place fantasy finish after being selected as the No. 20 receiver in ADP.
To be fair, Chark wasn’t exactly playing with top-fight talents at quarterback. He caught the tail end of the Blake Bortles years along with Cody Kessler in his rookie season. Chark then played with Garner Minshew, Nick Foles, Mike Glennon and Jake Luton over his next two seasons. Last year, injuries limited him to just 22 targets from Trevor Lawrence. While Jared Goff is far from an elite option, he’s at least proven to be a capable starting quarterback, which is more than we can say for most of the names above.
In Chark, Goff will get a much-needed big-bodied receiver who is capable of making plays downfield. Chark has a career aDOT of 13.3 yards and was up over 17 air yards per target in his four games last season. That’s the polar opposite profile of St. Brown, who saw just 7.0 air yards per target in 2022.
In terms of target distribution, St. Brown and Hockenson will continue to dominate the short and intermediate work. That positions both as the co-favorites to lead the team in targets. However, Chark will still get his in this offense. We also need to factor in D’Andre Swift’s prowess in the passing game, so this is not a situation where we’ll have a clear target monster.
Goff threw the ball 35.3 times per game last season. That’s roughly 600 attempts over a 17-game season. We’re likely to see a situation where none of the Lions pass-catchers top a 20% target share. A split of something like 18-20% for St. Brown and Hockenson would equate to 108-120 targets. Give Chark 17% and we’re looking at roughly 102 targets. While those numbers may seem conservative, it’s important to remember that we always have to add up to 100% when we distribute the targets to all possible pass catchers.
To put this another way, Chark’s presence on this depth chart is not a good thing for St. Brown. Likewise, neither is a healthy Hockenson. Fantasy football is a game this is often clouded by recency bias. We tend to remember what players have done for us lately and expect the good times to continue to roll. But situation dictates production. And in this situation, more mouths to feed puts a major cap on St. Brown’s fantasy upside. Given the circumstances and his profile as a low-aDOT receiver, he should be considered a WR3 option. We won’t be as bullish on Chark, who despite the opportunity figures to be in the WR4/5 conversation. He does come with fantasy upside, but it’s tough to envision a situation where Goff consistent taps into that high ceiling.
