Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Here are the best and worst players of the conference championship games according to our DYAR stats.
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 30/39 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 147 | 139 | 8 | BAL |
| Mahomes had 125 passing DYAR before halftime and 13 passing DYAR after halftime. Defensive adjustments for playing Baltimore nboost him from 63 passing YAR to 138 passing DYAR. | |||||||||||
| 2. | Jared Goff | DET | 25/41 | 273 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 126 | 126 | 0 | SF |
| Opponent adjustments for playing San Francisco boost Goff from 85 passing YAR to 126 passing DYAR. Goff had the most passing value, 73 DYAR, in the fourth quarter as the Lions tried to come back for the victory. Goff had 56 passing DYAR on passes up the middle, where the 49ers are at their strongest (7-for-12, 76 yards, and a touchdown). | |||||||||||
| 3. | Brock Purdy | SF | 20/31 | 267 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 79 | 52 | 27 | DET |
| Purdy had three scrambles for a combined 52 yards, all gaining new first downs in the second half as the 49ers came back and then iced this game. Purdy was worth -17 passing DYAR on third downs, with just 4.6 net yards per pass. | |||||||||||
| 4. | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 20/37 | 272 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 10 | KC |
| This includes 9 receiving DYAR for Jackson catching his own batted pass and advancing it for a 13-yard gain. Jackson had negative passing value before applying opponent adjustments. He had -44 passing DYAR on third downs, with two sacks in the second half and negative net yards per pass (-0.4). | |||||||||||
| Running Backs | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 20 | 90 | 2 | 4/5 | 42 | 0 | 63 | 54 | 9 | DET |
| McCaffrey goes from 38 rushing YAR to 54 rushing DYAR when we add in opponent adjustments for the top-ranked Lions run defense. McCaffrey had a 65% “running back success rate.” This is different from regular success rate because it counts two 4-yard gains on first-and-10 as successes. Regular success rate does not. | ||||||||||||
| 2. | David Montgomery | DET | 15 | 93 | 1 | 2/2 | 20 | 0 | 56 | 45 | 11 | SF |
| Montgomvery had an 80% running back success rate. Over half his carries gained at least 6 yards with three gaining between 14 and 16 yards. | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Gus Edwards | BAL | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | KC |
| The Forgotten One. | ||||||||||||
| 4. | Elijah Mitchell | SF | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | DET |
| 5. | Justice Hill | BAL | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4/7 | 34 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 12 | KC |
| 6. | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 24 | 68 | 1 | 4/4 | 14 | 0 | -13 | -17 | 3 | BAL |
| The Ravens mostly bottled up Pacheco, as he had only two carries over 4 yards (5 and 6) after the first quarter. He also got stoned on both a third-and-2 in the first quarter and a fourth-and-1 in the second quarter. | ||||||||||||
| 7. | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 12 | 45 | 1 | 3/6 | 11 | 0 | -23 | -3 | -20 | SF |
| Gibbs had the fumble, of course, and also three failed completions including a 3-yard gain on third-and-goal from the 6 that led to a field goal before halftime. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Travis Kelce | KC | 11 | 11 | 116 | 10.5 | 1 | 50 | BAL |
| This doesn’t rank among the top Kelce playoff games despite catching 11 of 11 targets because so many of them were short. Six of his catches went for less than 10 yards, and half of those were what we call “failed completions” including a 9-yard gain on third-and-24 right before halftime. (That one’s just a semi-failure, because it did get the Chiefs into field-goal range.) Includes 8 rushing DYAR for a 5-yard carry that moved the chains. | |||||||||
| 2. | Jameson Williams | DET | 2 | 3 | 25 | 12.5 | 1 | 49 | SF |
| This is mostly 32 rushing DYAR for Williams’ 42-yard end around touchdown in the first quarter. | |||||||||
| 3. | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | 2 | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 | 20 | BAL |
| 4. | Zay Flowers | BAL | 5 | 8 | 115 | 23.0 | 1 | 19 | KC |
| Flowers would have led the week with 50 receiving DYAR if not for his fumble at the goal line. He also gets -6 rushing DYAR for two carries that gained only 4 yards. | |||||||||
| 5. | Sam LaPorta | DET | 9 | 13 | 97 | 10.8 | 0 | 16 | SF |
| LaPorta gets a bump from 7 YAR to 16 DYAR because the 49ers defense was very strong against tight ends this season. | |||||||||
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Noah Gray | KC | 2 | 5 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | -23 | BAL |
| Gray only had one successful reception, a 5-yard gain on first-and-10 from the Baltimore 17 in the second quarter. | |||||||||
