Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NFL’s Conference Championship weekend brings few surprises as both No. 1 seeds (San Francisco and Baltimore) will host both No. 3 seeds (Detroit and Kansas City). The only upset from the Divisional Round battles was the defending-champion Chiefs grinding out a road victory at Buffalo.
Is there going to be a moneyline victory this week, or will both No. 1 seeds advance to a colossal matchup at Las Vegas? Throughout the season, I have given you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. Let’s take a look at which team has the best chance to pull an upset and reach Super Bowl LVIII.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
(+265, FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Francisco narrowly escaped the Divisional Round with a 24-21 victory over a feisty Green Bay Packers team. They now face another NFC North opponent in the Detroit Lions and may be without the services of star wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
The 49ers currently rank as the fourth-best defensive unit per DVOA but have shown vulnerability against the run. San Francisco only ranks 15th-best at stopping their opponent’s rushing attack but were exposed against Green Bay running back Aaron Jones last week. Jones racked up 108 rushing yards on 18 carries, for an average of 6.0 yards per carry. The Packers were actually winning 21-14 entering the fourth quarter.
The Lions rush defense ranks first in run defense DVOA in the league, and the 49ers are the fourth-heaviest rushing team in the NFL. San Francisco averages 138.9 yards per game on the ground, which is critical to the 49ers’ success. If the Lions can limit the San Francisco ground attack, they put more pressure on the passing attack with Brock Purdy. If Samuel is limited, or out, this could cause the 49ers passing attack to struggle yet again.
It is a difficult task to win on the road at the No. 1 seed in the conference championship game, but the Lions have the best chance of either underdog this weekend. The Lions have the best record ATS of any team in the league, currently 13-6 (68.4%), which includes 2-1 ATS as a road underdog. The 49ers are also just 3-6 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Both underdogs are fighting tough battles this weekend, but if I needed to pick one team to surprise in the Super Bowl, it would be the Lions.
The Pick
Lions ML (+265)
