Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There are hundreds of variables that go into fantasy football outcomes, but perhaps my favorite to really break down is coaching and schemes. Things change every year in the offseason, and new coaching staffs can really change the outlook for certain offenses and individual players. So let’s continue our rankings series with a look at all 32 coaching staffs in the NFL.
Track our whole position group rankings series: Offensive Line | Pass-Catcher | Defensive Line | Backfield | Linebacker | Quarterbacks | Secondaries | Special Teams | more to come!
2024 Coaching and Coordinator Rankings
1. Kansas City Chiefs
HC: Andy Reid, OC: Matt Nagy, DC: Steve Spagnuolo
Duh.
Andy Reid won his third Super Bowl last season, becoming one of just five head coaches to win that many. He and Patrick Mahomes are arguably the best head coach/quarterback duo of all time, and regardless of who has been at wide receiver, the Chiefs have continued to make deep playoff runs and win Super Bowls. Reid deserves so much credit for that, as his creative offensive scheme and constant answers for Cover-2 shells has kept defenses on their heels.
Meanwhile, Steve Spagnuolo has done a tremendous job on the defensive side of the ball. Over the last couple of years, the Chiefs offense has had some hiccups, but the defensive unit was the glass of water this team needed. This past season, Kansas City allowed the third-fewest points (1.55), second-fewest scores (0.291) and fifth-fewest yards per drive (28.2). The now four-time Super Bowl champion will look to run his man-heavy scheme without All-Pro defensive back L’Jarius Sneed this season.
2. Detroit Lions
HC: Dan Campbell, OC: Ben Johnson, DC: Aaron Glenn
I really wanted to put Detroit first here. But at the end of the day, Super Bowls are important, I guess.
But the Lions are easily second for me. Their coaching staff has so much continuity, as Dan Campbell, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn have now been together since Campbell walked in the door back in 2021. Campbell is aggressive in his decision-making, as the Lions have gone for it on fourth down 33.8%, 31.6% and 30.8% of the time over the last three seasons. That has ranked first, first and second in football during that span. Sometimes his decisions to go for it draw some debate but Campbell fully trusts his players and staff.
Ben Johnson, meanwhile, could easily be a head coach this season. There was plenty of interest from around the league, but he returned to Detroit for his third season as the team’s offensive coordinator. He’s placed himself into that second tier of playcallers in the NFL and I’ll always remember him calling a designed pass out of motion to Penei Sewell to win the game against the Minnesota Vikings. Simply put, this coaching staff isn’t afraid of anything.
3. Los Angeles Rams
HC: Sean McVay, OC: Mike LaFleur, DC: Chris Shula
While I like other overall coaching staffs a bit more, Sean McVay gets the benefit of the doubt here. He’s won a Super Bowl and the best offensive mind in football, and arguably no other playcaller puts his players in positions to succeed more than McVay. When the Rams offense was at full strength last year (Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua), this was one of the best units in the NFL. During those games, the Rams posted a 24.2% offensive DVOA, which would have ranked second in the league over the course of the season. During those games, the Rams also averaged 28.5 points per game, scoring 30-plus points in half of those contests.
4. Baltimore Ravens
HC: John Harbaugh, OC: Todd Monken, DC: Zach Orr
John Harbaugh has been with the Ravens since 2008, posting a career record of 160-99, while winning a Super Bowl. The Ravens were the top seed in the AFC last year, ultimately falling to the inevitable Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. Last year was the first year with Todd Monken as the offensive coordinator and while the Ravens didn’t suddenly transform into a pass-first offense, they were more aggressive. Their 57.8% early down pass rate wasn’t just the seventh-highest rate in the league, but the team’s highest rate in 15 years.
Baltimore did lose defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks, so they’ll turn to former linebacker coach (and former linebacker) Zach Orr to hopefully build off last year’s top overall defensive finish.
5. Cleveland Browns
HC: Kevin Stefanski, OC: Ken Dorsey, DC: Jim Schwartz
Despite dealing with numerous injuries, including five different starting quarterbacks, the Browns finished with an 11-6 record and a playoff appearance. As a result, Kevin Stefanski took home Coach of the Year honors. He’s been one of the better playcallers in the league over the last few years, but it’ll be interesting to see what this offense looks like in 2024, especially with Ken Dorsey coming over from Buffalo. Dorsey called the plays for the Bills through Week 10 when Buffalo was pass-happy and attacked deep down the field. Meanwhile, Cleveland, historically a run-first team, leaned more on the pass last year, especially after losing Nick Chubb. And once the team finally got consistent quarterback play from Joe Flacco starting in Week 13, Cleveland climbed to second in the NFL in neutral script pass rate (64.3%).
Meanwhile, Jim Schwartz is one of the best defensive minds in football, leading Cleveland to a top-three defensive unit last year. Teams averaged just 21.9 yards per drive against the Browns, the lowest mark in the league, while their 0.341 three and outs per drive also led the league.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
HC: Mike Tomlin, OC: Arthur Smith, DC: Teryl Austin
Mike Tomlin is one of the greatest coaches of our lifetime. Despite multiple reasons why he probably should have, Tomlin has yet to have a losing season in his 16 years with the Steelers. Hopefully the Steelers will finally have an improved offense and coordinator and while the entire fantasy community has soured on Arthur Smith, he is certainly better suited as an OC than a head coach. It’ll be interesting to see how his scheme meshes with the play style of both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
7. San Francisco 49ers
HC: Kyle Shanahan, OC: Chris Foerster, DC: Nick Sorensen
You can legitimately make the argument that Kyle Shanahan is the best playcaller in the entire NFL. Sure, the 49ers have the best skill position players in football, but Shanahan constantly designs concepts to give them massive after-the-catch opportunities. And over the past few seasons, Brock Purdy, the last pick of the draft, has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league in this scheme. San Francisco would be higher on this list if Shanahan wasn’t on the wrong end of a pair of blown Super Bowl leads, while there are questions at defensive coordinator.
8. Cincinnati Bengals
HC: Zac Taylor, OC: Dan Pitcher, DC: Lou Anarumo
Don’t let Zac Taylor’s career losing record fool you — a handful of those games came with star quarterback Joe Burrow sidelined. He’s a borderline top-10 head coach in the league, but the reason Cincinnati’s overall coaching staff comes in this high is the presence of Lou Anarumo. One of the best defensive coordinators in the league, Anarumo’s disguised coverages often gives opposing passers fits. The Bengals defense did take a step back last season, giving up a ton of explosive plays. But Anarumo has definitely earned the benefit of the doubt.
9. Green Bay Packers
HC: Matt LaFleur, OC: Adam Stenavich, DC: Jeff Hafley
In his first season without Aaron Rodgers, Matt LaFleur helped Jordan Love breakout, leading Green Bay to a 9-8 record, as well as a divisional round blowout victory over the Dallas Cowboys. And despite not having a top-20 wide receiver on the roster, Love was one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league during the second half of the season, with a huge assist from LaFleur. Coming from the Shanahan scheme, LaFleur loves to utilize motion, something Rodgers wasn’t too fond of. But with Rodgers gone last season, Green Bay’s use of pre-snap motion climbed from 37.9% in 2022 to 54.3% in 2023. He did an outstanding job of playing to all of his wideout’s strengths. LaFleur is a borderline top-five head coach in the league but there is a lot of uncertainty with first-time defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley.
10. Houston Texans
HC: DeMeco Ryans, OC: Bobby Slowik, DC: Matt Burke
This may seem a bit high after just one season, but I’ve seen enough. DeMeco Ryans led the Texans — a team that was projected to win 3-5 games before the season — to the playoffs in year one. The defense took steps forward, while the offense was the surprise of the season. C.J. Stroud was elite in Bobby Slowik’s system that featured a ton of first down runs that ultimately set up deep play-action passes down the field. In Slowik’s offense, Stroud had an historic rookie season, Nico Collins broke out and Tank Dell shined in his first season. By the time the 2024 season is over, Slowik is going to be a hot head coach candidate.
11. Buffalo Bills
HC: Sean McDermott, OC: Joe Brady, DC: Bobby Babich
Should the Bills have been to a Super Bowl by now? Yeah, probably. But we still cannot overlook the impact Sean McDermott has had on the organization and city. McDermott has a regular season record of 73-41 since 2017 and if it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes, this team probably has a Super Bowl. Last year, McDermott also multi-tasked, handling both head-coaching and defensive coordinator duties. Despite multiple injuries to the secondary, the Bills still ranked sixth in points per drive (1.69) and third in total turnovers (30).
As for the offense, Joe Brady took over after Week 10. The offense changed, relying more on the run and quick passing game. Brady did a much better job than Ken Dorsey of reeling Josh Allen back and assuring him it’s okay to check the football down. From Week 11 on, Buffalo won six of seven games and took the division back from the Miami Dolphins.
12. Minnesota Vikings
HC: Kevin O’Connell, OC: Wes Phillips, DC: Brian Flores
I think Kevin O’Connell is a terrific coach and play caller. We’ll find out just how good in 2024 as Minnesota moves from Kirk Cousins to JJ McCarthy/Sam Darnold at quarterback. But one of the main reasons I have the Vikings as a top-12 staff is the impact Brian Flores had in his first year in Minnesota. The Vikings defense had a massive turnaround under Flores, going from 31st in yards per game allowed in 2022 (391.1) to 16th last year (333.3). This unit went from a passive defense to a blitz-heavy one in Flores’ scheme.
13. Philadelphia Eagles
HC: Nick Sirianni, OC: Kellen Moore, DC: Vic Fangio
2023 was a tale of two seasons for the Eagles. After a 9-1 start, Philadelphia limped to the finish line, ultimately falling in the first round of the playoffs. Brian Johnson did not do a great job of creating layups for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who averaged 1.62 yards of separation per pass attempt to WRs and TEs last year, a bottom-five rate in football. In comes Kellen Moore, who will change things up quite a bit. In 2023, Philadelphia utilized pre-snap motion just 22.8% of the time, which ranked dead last in the entire NFL. The Chargers, meanwhile, ranked fifth in pre-snap motion rate at 55.7% under Moore. Individually, the Philadelphia wide receivers didn’t move around the formation very often. A.J. Brown posted a pre-snap motion rate of just over four percent last year, while Smith was at 3.2%, two of the lowest rates in the league. After a season of chucking up long three-pointers, more layups are on the horizon for Hurts.
14. Los Angeles Chargers
HC: Jim Harbaugh, OC: Greg Roman, DC: Jesse Minter
Ranking the Chargers here is mostly to do with Jim Harbaugh’s experience and track record. Whether at the NFL or college level, he’s won pretty much everywhere he’s been. He’s won nearly 70% of his games as an NFL head coach and will now bring a run-first (and second) approach to this new-look Chargers squad. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Greg Roman has worked with Harbaugh during their time at Stanford and San Francisco.
15. Miami Dolphins
HC: Mike McDaniel, OC: Frank Smith, DC: Anthony Weaver
It is entirely possible this ranking is far too low by the end of the year. Since joining the Dolphins, Mike McDaniel has orchestrated one of the most explosive offenses in the league. However, Miami has had little success against playoff caliber football clubs, while the offense has cooled down around the same time the weather does.
16. Indianapolis Colts
HC: Shane Steichen, OC: Jim Bob Cooter, DC: Gus Bradley
In Shane Steichen’s first season as the head coach in Indianapolis, the Colts offense improved from 17 points per game in 2022 to 23.3. And that was with first round quarterback Anthony Richardson taking less than 100 dropbacks, while All-Pro Jonathan Taylor missed seven games. The Colts got strong production from Zack Moss in Steichen’s RPO-heavy, shotgun-centric run scheme. No team ran RPO concepts more than the Colts last year (18.1%), while they also led the NFL in average seconds per snap and no-huddle rate. With Richardson and Taylor healthy this year, Steichen should have a lot of fun.
17. Dallas Cowboys
HC: Mike McCarthy, OC: Brian Schottenheimer, DC: Mike Zimmer
In four seasons with the Cowboys, Mike McCarthy has finished 12-5 three times, including last year when Dallas’ offense finished as a top-five overall unit. Many (me included) thought the offense would take a step back going from Kellen Moore to McCarthy as the team’s play caller, but that wasn’t the case. The playoff collapses cannot be overlooked and who knows what to expect on the defensive end with 68-year-old Mike Zimmer in town.
18. Jacksonville Jaguars
HC: Doug Pederson, OC: Press Taylor, DC: Ryan Nielsen
Doug Pederson is an interesting case study. Of course, there is his memorable Super Bowl title with the Eagles. And in his first season in Jacksonville, the Jaguars immediately forgot about the Urban Meyer experience, winning nine games and completing a miraculous comeback against the Chargers in the playoffs. But last season, despite an 8-3 start, Pederson and company missed the playoffs, losing five of their final six games. It’ll be interesting to see who calls the plays on offense this season. In 2022, Pederson’s first year, he and Press Taylor basically split play calling duties. But last year, Taylor took on a large role, though he was largely criticized at times.
19. Denver Broncos
HC: Sean Payton, OC: Joe Lombardi, DC: Vance Joseph
Sean Payton’s tenure with the Broncos didn’t get off to the best start. Denver opened the season 1-5, including a video game-like 70-20 loss to the Dolphins. If you lose a game by 50 points, you can’t be inside the top-15 in these rankings. Those are the rules. Payton turned Russell Wilson into a screen and check down merchant, as the veteran’s 19.1% checkdown rate ranked fourth-highest among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.
The addition of Bo Nix should put a huge smile on Payton’s face.
Denver’s 1-5 start spelled doom, but the midseason turnaround had a lot to do with the job Vance Joseph did with the defense. The Broncos won five straight games and in Week 6-14, Denver allowed an average of 16 points per game.
20. New York Jets
HC: Robert Saleh, OC: Nathaniel Hackett, DC: Jeff Ulbrich
The Jets season was over immediately when it began. Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles, and Robert Saleh continued to (for whatever reason) believe in Zach Wilson, and the Jets offense was once again the laughingstock of the league. Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich have, however, built arguably the league’s top defense, which gives this team a serious ceiling if they can get a fully healthy season from their Hall of Fame signal caller.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
HC: Todd Bowles, OC: Liam Coen, DC: Kacy Rodgers & Larry Foote
Todd Bowles and the Bucs are coming off a successful season. They won the NFC South, defeated the Eagles in the playoffs and gave the Lions a fight in the second round. Bowles, usually a conservative head coach, only went for it on fourth down 14.4% of the time last year (fourth lowest) but we did see the offense surprise everyone post-Tom Brady. Dave Canales, one year after reviving Geno Smith’s career, also rejuvenated Baker Mayfield’s. His consecutive successes led him to a head coaching job in Carolina, which means Liam Coen, a Sean McVay pupil, will look to build off Tampa Bay’s surprising 2023 campaign.
22. Atlanta Falcons
HC: Raheem Morris, OC: Zac Robinson, DC: Jimmy Lake
Raheem Morris returns to a head coaching role. The last time we saw him as a head coach, Tampa Bay had a brutal quarterback situation that was tough to overcome. Players absolutely love Morris, and the Falcons went with him over the possibilities over Bill Belichick or Mike Vrabel. He’ll be an instant upgrade over Arthur Smith, as will new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who also comes from the McVay system. Look for the Falcons, who ran 11 personnel on a league-low 14% of first downs last year, to suddenly spread the formation out and have three wide receivers on the field a lot more. After last year’s disaster, I’m excited to see someone who can correctly utilize Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
23. Carolina Panthers
HC: Dave Canales, OC: Brad Idzik, DC: Ejiro Evero
Geno Smith was the Comeback Player of the Year in 2022. Baker Mayfiueld had a career-best season in 2023. Whatever Dave Canales is doing, it’s working. His next assignment? Get Bryce Young’s career back on track. I love everything the Panthers have done this offseason, and things simply cannot get worse for Carolina in 2024.
24. New York Giants
HC: Brian Daboll, OC: Mike Kafka, DC: Shane Bowen
I’m throwing last year’s mess out the window. In 2022, Brian Daboll’s first season with the team, the Giants went 9-7, as Daboll and Mike Kafka put together a system to help Daniel Jones succeed. Get him moving outside of the pocket and on the run. Entering the 2024 season, the Giants are clearly in a position where they won’t be competing, but it shouldn’t have much of an impact on Daboll’s immediate future.
25. Washington Commanders
HC: Dan Quinn, OC: Klif Kingsbury, DC: Joe Whitt Jr.
After a few years with Ron Rivera, Washington once again hired a defensive-minded head coach in Dan Quinn. He helped build an elite defense in Dallas over the last few seasons but when we last saw him as a head coach, it wasn’t pretty. It’ll be interesting to see what defensive scheme the Commanders run this year. Quinn brings along with him Joe Whitt Jr., who was a secondary coach with Quinn in both Dallas and Atlanta. We have seen players like Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland breakout alongside Quinn and Whitt., but that was in Dallas’ man-heavy scheme. Washington simply doesn’t have the players to run man coverage that often.
Then there is Kliff Kingsbury, who will bring his up-tempo style of offense to Washington. Brian Robinson has already discussed how much faster the offense is and it shouldn’t surprise anyone. When Kingsbury was in Arizona 2019-2021, the Cardinals ranked second in the NFL in average seconds per snap (25.5) and comfortably led the league in no-huddle rate (35.5%).
26. Chicago Bears
HC: Matt Eberflus, OC: Shane Waldron, DC: Eric Washington
Matt Eberflus’ overall coaching record isn’t anything to write home about but luckily, the Bears roster continues to improve. All of the talk is surrounding the new-look offense, but Eberflus deserves a lot of credit for how well this defense played down the stretch last year. The Bears became one of the top run defenses in the NFL during that span, ultimately allowing the fewest rushing yards per game over the course of the year (86.4).
As for the offense, the Bears replaced Luke Getsy with Shane Waldron. The Bears have an elite wide receiver trio, but Waldron has always loved utilizing two tight end sets. And when Chicago immediately signed Gerald Everett, who was with Waldron in Los Angeles and Seattle, it basically confirmed that we’d see plenty of 12 personnel this year. What might that mean for the slot wide receiver in this offense?
27. Las Vegas Raiders
HC: Antonio Pierce, OC: Luke Getsy, DC: Patrick Graham
It would have been insane for the Raiders to not give Antonio Pierce the job after he led the team to a 5-4 record once he took over last year. Las Vegas’ season was lost, and the players were checked out, but Pierce helped them find their joy again, and it showed on the field. The Raiders defense played well during the second half, including a stellar road game against Kansas City where they held the Chiefs to 17 points.
Admittedly, I am not a huge fan of Luke Getsy as a playcaller. I think he’s a huge reason Justin Fields struggled, as his route designs and concepts were flat out awful. Wideouts constantly overlapped their routes, giving Fields nowhere to throw the football. Hopefully things look better in Las Vegas, but expect the Raiders to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league.
28. Arizona Cardinals
HC: Jonathan Gannon, OC: Drew Petzing, DC: Nick Rallis
Arizona has one of the youngest coaching staffs in the league. Jonathan Gannon (41) and Drew Petzing (37) will look to see what they can really do with this team with a full season of Kyler Murray. We did see Trey McBride breakout last year and Petzing, a former tight ends coach, could have played a role in that.
29. Seattle Seahawks
HC: Mike Macdonald, OC: Ryan Grubb, DC: Aden Durde
After 14 years of Pete Carroll on the sidelines, the Seahawks are going in a completely different direction. An entirely new regime is now in Seattle, led by the youngest head coach in the NFL, Mike Macdonald (37). He helped build one of the league’s best defenses in Baltimore and now will look to bring that to Seattle. On offense, Ryan Grubb comes over from Washington where he utilized a ton of three-wide sets with Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk. I’d like to believe Seattle will finally mainly operate out of 11 personnel with their strong wide receiver trio.
30. New England Patriots
HC: Jerod Mayo, OC: Alex Van Pelt, DC: DeMarcus Covington
For the first time since 1999, Bill Belichick will not be on the sideline for the New England Patriots. Former Pro Bowl linebacker Jerod Mayo, who has been coaching the position in New England since 2019, will take over as the head coach. With Mayo at the helm and a talented defense that was really good last year (especially considering how many bad spots the offense put them in), this unit should once again impress.
The offense, meanwhile, belongs to Alex Van Pelt, who was the offensive coordinator in Cleveland, though it was still Kevin Stefanski’s offense. Van Pelt will bring an outside zone run scheme, something the Patriots really haven’t used a lot of over the years.
31. Tennessee Titans
HC: Brian Callahan, OC: Nick Holz, DC: Dennard Wilson
It was rather surprising to see the Titans move on from Mike Vrabel, but Tennessee is going in a completely different direction. Known for running the football with Derrick Henry and playing defense, the Titans philosophy has changed. Brian Callahan comes in, who was the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati from 2019-2023. If he brings over a similar offense that Zac Taylor ran, expect to see a ton of 11 personnel and shotgun runs.
32. New Orleans Saints
HC: Dennis Allen, OC: Klint Kubiak, DC: Joe Woods
Dennis Allen is lucky he still has his job. Since taking over for Sean Payton in 2022, Allen has failed this offense. Once a fun, high-scoring unit, the Saints offense has lacked any sort of innovation in over two years now. Last year it reached comical heights. Their route concepts were awful. Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed mostly ran go routes, while Derek Carr would either take shots 20-plus yards down the field or check it down to Alvin Kamara.
We’ll see if Klint Kubiak can change things. I fully expect more play-action and pre-snap motion from the Saints, two concepts they have been allergic to over the years. Last year, New Orleans ranked 31st in use of pre-snap motion (29.3%), while Carr’s 14.8% play-action dropback rate was the second lowest among qualified quarterbacks.
