Chiefs at Bills: DVOA Preview

After a season full of panic, doubts, and thinkpieces about these two franchises, here we are again: the Kansas City Chiefs against the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs.

This will be the third meeting in the past four postseasons. The previous meeting in the Divisional Round was a classic that saw the Chiefs tie the game with a field goal on a drive that started with 13 seconds remaining. Kansas City got the ball first in overtime, scored a touchdown, and won the game. That ending sparked a change in the overtime rules for the playoffs that now require each team to possess the ball regardless of the first drive’s outcome. The Chiefs lost the following week to the Cincinnati Bengals in overtime but no playoff game has gone to overtime with the new rules in place.

These two teams last met in Week 14 in another close game with a bizarre ending. The Chiefs appeared to take the lead with 1:25 remaining in the game as Travis Kelce caught a pass and then lateraled the ball to Kadarius Toney, who took it into the end zone for what would have been a 49-yard touchdown in total. Toney, of course, was ruled offside before the play and the down did not count. Buffalo escaped with a 20-17 win.

Neither of these teams have felt like the dominant Bills and Chiefs of the past few seasons but the numbers show both of these teams have been better than the general vibes they’ve put out. The Chiefs enter the game fifth in weighted DVOA while the Bills are third.

The Bills have gone through coaching struggles both on and off the field. They’ll enter this game with two different playcallers than who they ended the 2022 season with. Sean McDermott took over as the defensive play caller for Leslie Frazier during the offseason and the Bills made a change at offensive coordinator after Week 10, firing Ken Dorsey and replacing him with Joe Brady. Yet despite that turmoil, Buffalo won the AFC East, thanks to a Week 18 win over the Miami Dolphins, and will host this game as the No. 2 seed.

That will make this the first career true road playoff game for Patrick Mahomes. While that has caused some talking heads to wonder if he can win that like because of the different circumstances and hostile environments on the road, especially in Buffalo, we should also take the time to appreciate that Mahomes, a six-year starter with two Super Bowl wins, is just now playing his first road playoff game.

As one might expect, this game is projected to be the closest in the divisional round. The spread has the Bills favored by 2.5 points and DVOA has it at 2.3 points. If previous meetings between these two are any indication, this will be a memorable Sunday night playoff game.

All stats are for the regular season only except for weighted DVOA and anything else noted below. Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA, not just offense. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

It’s strange to see the Chiefs come into a playoff game as the lower-rated offense. That’s not something that’s happened during Mahomes’s career. The ups and downs of last season incited panic about the offense but it still came out first in DVOA and led to a Super Bowl win. This season has not been the same. Kansas City is just 12th in weighted offensive DVOA. And because this is the Patrick Mahomes Chiefs, that feels like it might as well be 25th.

The Chiefs have spent the season trying to find the right mix at wide receiver to spark the offense and their best answer has been eliminating most of the bad options. Two key plays in the regular season Bills game went to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (a dropped go-ahead touchdown with seven minutes remaining in the game) and Kadarius Toney. The Chiefs still have a habit of mixing in the jet sweep to Mecole Hardman (taking Toney’s role while he’s been out for the past four games with a hip injury and remains limited) but the Kansas City offense has been better when just a few players are involved.

Those players are Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Isiah Pacheco. The Chiefs are gambling when anyone else touches the ball. Since Week 12, those three have made up for just under 50% of the Chiefs’ targets in the passing game.

Rice has been the breakout star of the group, developing throughout the season as a third-round rookie. At the start of the season, Rice was an efficient, but sparsely used receiver. That has changed over the back half of the season. He got his first 10-target game against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 12 and since then, he leads the team with a 24% target share. 

Through Week 11, he was only on the field for just 44% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. But since that Raiders game, Rice has been on the field for 70% of dropbacks and has become more efficient with that increase in playing time. He’s eighth among receivers in Route DVOA.

Rice took over the wild-card game against the Miami Dolphins with 12 targets, eight catches, 130 yards, and a touchdown. He’s been the clear No. 1 receiver for the Chiefs over the back half of the season but that is one area the Bills’ defense has excelled. The Bills are seventh in DVOA against No. 1 receivers but 28th against WR2s. Since Rice’s breakout, the Chiefs haven’t really used a WR2 and have been better off for it.

During Rice’s big playoff debut, he did a ton of work on crossers that got him moving over the middle of the field. That could be a weakness for the Bills, depending on who can be out there on defense.

Buffalo comes into the game second in DVOA on passes to the middle of the field but that area might not be protected as well as it was during the season. Linebacker Terrel Bernard left the wild card game against the Steelers with an ankle injury and has not yet practiced this week, he’s not expected to play. Bernard had admirably filled in for the injured Matt Milano but that will leave Tyrel Dodson and rookie Dorian Williams at linebacker for a team that plays in nickel 80% of the time.

That’s actually a change-up from Bills defenses of the past that played almost exclusively in nickel. Now Buffalo has played 17% of snaps in dime, but there’s also a question of how many healthy defensive backs will be available. Slot corner Taron Johnson left the Steelers game with a concussion and has been limited in practice. Rasul Douglas has been limited with a knee injury, but is expected to play, and safety Taylor Rapp has not practiced.

The health of Douglas could be a key to the Buffalo secondary. He ranks fifth overall in the new cornerback coverage DVOA and has been incredible over the season half of the season with a league-leading -74.7% DVOA in coverage since Week 10.

Even if Buffalo can contain Rice, there is another issue. The Bills ranked 14th in DVOA against tight ends and the Chiefs still have Travis Kelce. Kelce did not put up the monster numbers he’s had in the past while he battled through injuries but he was second among tight ends in DYAR and third in Route DVOA. When Kelce has been on the field, he’s made a difference.

This could be a feeling-out process for the Chiefs, exploring where the Bills are healthy and where the weaknesses could be. Kansas City has done its best working the short parts of the field, but Buffalo is second in DVOA against short passes. That could be different without Bernard in the middle.

A weaker second level could also open up holes for Kansas City’s run game. The Bills were just 17th in DVOA against the run and Pacheco missed the regular-season meeting with a shoulder injury.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

This is where things could get chaotic in this game. Josh Allen is an agent of chaos on his own, then add a Steve Spagnuolo-coordinated defense that is fifth in weighted DVOA.

Spagnuolo has been able to bring the pressure for most of the season. The Chiefs are fifth in blitz rate and seventh in pressure rate. When the Chiefs do blitz, they have a -19.0% DVOA compared to -7.9% DVOA when they don’t. The Chiefs brought pressure in the first matchup, which forced Allen to hold onto the ball in an attempt to make a play. That’s a high-variance strategy for both sides.

In the regular-season meeting, the Chiefs mostly shut down the Bills’ passing game, especially Stefon Diggs. Diggs was targeted 11 times but had just four receptions for 24 yards. Two of those receptions came on short throws against soft zone while the other two came on screen attempts with Diggs as the inside receiver in a trips set. This has been a way the Bills have tried to manufacture touches for Diggs over the second half of the season. They tried it four times against the Chiefs but the final two targets included a pass defensed and a drop.

Diggs has been highly targeted over the second half of the season but has struggled to find production. He’s averaged just 1.38 yards per route run since Week 10, as opposed to 2.45 over the first half of the season. His rate of explosive plays has also dropped. His struggles against the Chiefs mostly came opposite L’Jarius Sneed, who has been a No. 1 receiver eraser for Kansas City all season. Sneed has a -39.7% DVOA in coverage over the second half of the season and the Chiefs have been fifth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers all season.

The issue for the Chiefs is they only rank 25th against No. 2 receivers, but who is that for the Bills? For much of the season that was Gabe Davis, but Khalil Shakir has emerged as a more explosive option. With Davis out against the Steelers, Shakir had three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown with the touchdown on a nasty 17-yard crosser that featured slipping out of a sure tackle at the reception and juking his way past a few others on the way to the end zone. Shakir is just 40th in Route DVOA but he’s the only receiver in the top 50 with a target rate under 15%. When he’s been involved, he’s made plays. More involvement could be a key to having that secondary piece, especially if so much attention will be paid to Diggs.

Buffalo might be at its best here if it gets the run game going. The Bills have statistically been a slightly worse offense since the switch at offensive coordinator, but Joe Brady did help improve the run game from 1.9% DVOA through Week 9 to 4.4% DVOA since. That’s come with increased volume on the ground, too. Run defense has been the Chiefs’ biggest weakness this season, where they rank 27th in DVOA. Buffalo has an advantage by success rate in both inside zone and power runs over the Kansas City defense.

After years of struggling to figure out a run game and not having the blocking to lean on, the Bills ranked seventh in ESPN’s run block win rate this season. Buffalo was 22nd in 2022, 23rd in 2021 and 29th in 2020. James Cook only had 10 carries for 58 yards in the first meeting but he was an impactful player in the passing game with five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown.

That score was on a seam route from the backfield that revived one of the league’s most popular plays around the 2017 season, targeting the running back seam with jet motion to the running back’s side at the snap.

The Bills have brought a vertical element to running back targets with Brady at the helm, with just under 15% of targets coming in the intermediate range. That rate was under 5% with Dorsey. The Chiefs have also struggled against running back passes, where they ranked 21st in DVOA this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Chiefs had one of the better special teams units this season but that mainly came from kicking. They were fifth in value on field goals and extra points and around average for punting. Returns have been around the league average but have produced negative value overall. Richie James has been fine there as he took over as an improvement over trying to get the most out of Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman.

Special teams could be a trip for the Bills. Buffalo has been around average in special teams but could be without punter Sam Martin who injured his hamstring running down a blocked field goal against the Steelers. Martin stayed in the game and punted afterward, but the Bills signed former punter Matt Haack to the practice squad as insurance. Buffalo was already just 17th in punt value with a healthy Martin. Punt returns have been an area where the Bills have succeeded with Deonte Harty. They’re seventh in punt return value on the season, including a 96-yard touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 18.

OUTLOOK

After the Chiefs played in one of the coldest games in history and the Bills had to move a game to avoid a massive snowstorm, a 20-degree Sunday night game might be a relief for both sides.

The relief probably stops there. Both of these teams have fought through some ups and downs during the season to get to this point and they still come into this meeting as two of the best teams in the league. With two teams that know each other so well and have brought the best out of each other in previous meetings, this should be as close as the projections see it. It’s difficult to imagine anything other than a close game deep into the fourth quarter. This might be a game where the team that avoids the worst mistake will sneak away with a win. For as hard as these two teams have battled this season, avoiding that mistake has been the biggest fight.