Chicago Bears DVOA, Stats, & NFL Rankings

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is being asked to play with structure and lot of patience in his first NFL season, something he isn't used to doing. Williams' off-script playmaking is considered his superpower and what made him a start at USC, but so far he's being sped up by defenses and getting little help from his offensive line. The Athletic's Dianna Russini expects the Bears to continue to try and lean on their ground game so that play-action opens up, which would in turn allow Williams to go on the move. The 22-year-old hasn't looked great in his first three NFL contests, but he did go 33-for-52 for 363 yards and two touchdowns (he also threw two picks) in the Week 3 loss to the Colts. There is still time for Williams to develop into an elite signal-caller, but it's time to pump the brakes on him being a legitimate QB1 in fantasy on a weekly basis. He'll get matchup against a beatable Rams defense at home in Week 4.

Chicago Bears kicker Cairo Santos is a solid fantasy starter for Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams. In the Bears' 21-16 loss to the Colts, Santos made one of two field-goal attempts. After a strong season opener where he scored 10 points, his production has dipped to seven and four points in the following weeks. While the Bears have faced offensive struggles, they have improved since the opener. Crucially for Santos, the Rams' injury issues may hinder their ability to sustain drives, potentially giving the Bears more scoring opportunities. Notably, four of Santos' six field goals this season have been from 50 yards or longer, showcasing his reliability from distance. However, given the Bears' offensive inconsistencies, Santos is likely to remain a low-end fantasy option on a weekly basis.

Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet is a recommended starter this week, thanks to a favorable matchup against a struggling Los Angeles Rams secondary. The Rams allow a league-high 11.53 yards per target and a 93.3% catch rate to opposing tight ends this season. In Week 3, with Keenan Allen (heel) sidelined, Kmet had one of his best performances, tying his career-high in receptions and narrowly missing a second 100-yard game. After starting the season behind Gerald Everett, Kmet has out-snapped him in the last two games, although he still isn't on the field as frequently as last year. If Allen cannot play or is less than fully healthy in Week 4, Kmet should have ample opportunities against a Rams defense that struggles to cover the middle of the field. The Bears could have a full array of weapons for the first time since Week 1, as Allen is listed as questionable. After being limited in practice earlier in the week, he returned to full practice on Friday, which could impact Kmet's target share. The Rams have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Start Kmet as a low-end TE1 this week, and I hope his breakout continues.

Chicago Bears wide receiver DJ Moore is a solid WR2 option this week against the vulnerable Los Angeles Rams secondary. Moore has seen consistent target numbers in his last three games, recording eight, ten, and ten targets. This reliable production is crucial for building chemistry with a rookie quarterback. While he has scored double-digit fantasy points in every game, he has yet to have a breakout performance or find the end zone. Interestingly, Rome Odunze became the first Bears receiver to surpass 100 yards in a game and score a touchdown. This week, the Bears may have a full complement of receivers for the first time since Week 1, as veteran Keenan Allen (heel) is listed as questionable. After being limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday, Allen returned to full practice on Friday, suggesting he might be ready to play. While the Bears will likely integrate all three receivers into their game plan upon Allen's return, this could dilute their target shares. Nevertheless, the matchup against the Rams looks promising, as they have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts and were notably exploited last week by Jauan Jennings. Overall, the Rams have given the most PPR points to perimeter receivers. Whether or not Allen plays, Moore deserves a spot in fantasy lineups.

The Chicago Bears' running back Roschon Johnson is poised for increased usage in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Rams. Reports indicate that the Bears want more opportunities for their young back, especially as starter D'Andre Swift has struggled. In recent games, the Bears have experimented with different carry splits among Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Johnson. Given their current ranking of 31st in both yards per game and yards per attempt, there's nowhere to go but up. Sunday's matchup against a Rams run defense that ranks 25th could be the perfect chance for improvement. The Bears missed a good opportunity in Week 3 against a vulnerable Colts defense, raising concerns about Shane Waldron's run scheme and its adaptability to the available talent. Johnson showed promise in Week 3, averaging 3.5 yards per carry with a more physical running style. While Swift led in rushing plays with a 56% snap rate, Johnson carved out a role on passing downs, taking 51% of the snaps compared to Swift's 42%. Johnson also outperformed Swift in the red zone, logging a 47% snap rate versus Swift's 29%. For fantasy managers needing a dart throw at running back, Johnson's recent usage and anticipated uptick in touches make him an intriguing option this week.