Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Evaluating the skill of the incoming rookies in this week’s NFL Draft is a big task, but it isn’t the only one facing NFL front offices. The medical sheets are just as important — in some cases, moreso.
Heading into the draft, ProFootballDoc does his best to look at the notable injury situations among this year’s prospects to break down what they mean and what teams and fans can expect.
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Ohio State
Fields' main injury played out on national TV and created controversy but also showed toughness as he played through the issue after receiving an in-game injection in the medical tent. The injection was likely for rib and/or hip pointer issues. A week before the draft, it was reported that the Ohio St. product has epilepsy. The seizure disorder should not affect his draft stock and Fields should round out as a top-five pick. Epilepsy is of no concern medically going forward and the same goes for his previous index finger fracture. Fields did enough in his final season to warrant a high draft selection, as he lit up the Big 10 with 27 total touchdowns and a stellar 70.2% completion percentage. There does not seem to be any worries medically that will affect his draft status.
Mac Jones, Alabama
There is little medical information on Jones and the limited examinations due to the abbreviated combine make this a unique situation with some potential for future concern. Jones didn’t miss time in his college career, but there is some rumor floating around about potential issues with his throwing elbow. There has been nothing formally reported in the media, but he did get an MRI to evaluate said elbow and his ulnar collateral ligament. We have not seen any issues by video with his throwing or mechanics and Jones did not should issue during his final season where he threw for 41 touchdowns. Certainly, we are not failing Jones on his physical but the team that selects him best take a careful look at him for the risk of potential Tommy John surgery in the future.
Trey Lance, North Dakota State
The projected first round QB out of North Dakota St. has played in one game since being seen on crutches in February of 2020. The injury has not been detailed and is said to date back to high school although he completed the 2019 season before the procedure. Any worry here stems from lack of information and the fact that he did not play in 2020, as Lance didn't opt out due to COVID-19, but his school did. There was no fall football for North Dakota State and with their season pushed to the spring, Lance decided to move on and prepare for the NFL. His 2019 season was perfect as he threw for 28 touchdowns and no interceptions while running for another 14 scores. We are sure he was thoroughly examined at the limited combines and we have not heard any worries about him medically.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Normally a QB with recent shoulder surgery would cause a lot of consternation before the draft, but not in this case. Lawrence has been the presumptive No. 1 overall selection for years and will be despite the left (non-throwing) shoulder surgery. It is something he played through, but undergoing surgery indicates a labral tear and instability. Despite this, Lawrence tossed for a career-high 69.2% completion percentage and overall had an outstanding college career throwing for a total of 90 touchdowns in three years. The Clemson superstar did not attend the limited medical portion of the combines as he got married on that weekend. It is likely the Jaguars medical staff were the ones asked to review his case and conduct a telemedicine visit. Lawrence will not be fully cleared until training camp. Normally, the surgery would affect the offseason program but given the pandemic and the NFLPA citing safety issues, the voluntary OTAs will have limited attendance. Our guess is Lawrence will do enough to learn the new system and what normally would be a big concern is in fact a small one going forward.
Kyle Trask, Florida
Foot concerns are the key here for the Florida Gator. Trask has a history of fracture and surgery on both sides. Piecing together the injury history, Trask likely has had Jones fifth metatarsal stress-related fractures on the left in 2017 and the right in 2018. The bad news is this pattern of injury is of concern. The concern is for re-fracture if not completely healed, as this recently happened to star Los Angeles Chargers safety Derwin James, as we documented in our 2019 preseason injury preview. Trask underwent a fantastic senior season throwing a career high 43 touchdowns and almost 4300 yards leading to a likely second- or third-round selection, but teams should mind his foot concerns before drafting the signal caller.
Zach Wilson, BYU
This may be the biggest injury concern among the QB draft class. Any time there is a throwing shoulder surgery, there is concern. Doing medical detective work, Wilson likely had a posterior labrum repair of this throwing shoulder in early 2019 but has returned to play well as he tossed 33 touchdowns in his final season at BYU. The injury reportedly stemmed from high school and allowed him to throw but caused pain when landing on the shoulder. By video of the type of brace/sling used post-operatively along with the reports of symptoms, leads me to the conclusion that this may be a more unusual type of labral injury. It is interesting the New York Jets have said the late trade of QB Sam Darnold was due to the fact that they wanted to see the draft prospects throw in person first, but the trade happened before the Jets got to examine Wilson's shoulder in person. Obviously, he can throw and play football well as we saw in his junior season. The concern is what happens when he takes multiple NFL hits and the risk of recurrence to his throwing shoulder. Wilson has shown toughness returning from in season thumb fracture surgery in 2019. It seems clear the Jets are interested in drafting him with the second overall pick but hopefully the shoulder will be a forgotten issue and never act up as he begins his pro career.
Running back
Najee Harris, Alabama
Multiple foot and ankle sprains during his time at Alabama will lead to careful examination, but barring surprise, Harris should grade out medically fine. In 2018, Harris suffered foot and ankle sprains but did not miss any games. In 2019, Harris suffered an ankle sprain but didn't miss time. In 2021, he again suffered an ankle sprain in the national championship game but didn't miss time. In the future, there may be consideration to have his ankle ligaments tightened up to avoid these in-season injuries but that should only result in a minimal downgrade. Expect Harris to be the first running back taken in the 2021 draft after dominating college football with his rush and receiving skills resulting in 50 total touchdowns in the last two years.
Trey Sermon, Ohio State
At profootballdoc.com, we don't like using the injury-prone label, especially when it comes to traumatic injuries, but that will be Sermon's challenge heading into the NFL draft. He has dealt with a long list of injuries in his collegiate career but has played well as a complementary back at both Oklahoma and Ohio State. The list includes a vertebral fracture, MCL tear, ACL/LCL tear and a SC joint dislocation. The SC joint dislocation was suffered on his first carry in the national championship game. The Buckeye running back headed to the hospital soon after to have the joint relocated. This high-profile injury should be of minimal concern and is similar to what Tyreek Hill suffered early in the 2019 season. Sermon has been very consistent, averaging over 700 rushing yards in four years while totaling a career-high 13 rushing touchdowns in his sophomore season. The biggest concern to his draft stock is the long-term issues associated with his ACL/LCL surgery and injury. Sermon has returned to play well but the longevity consequences of any cartilage damage at the time of his multi-ligament knee injury is the main concern.
Pooka Williams, Kansas
This is an interesting case more than a concerning medical issue but one that should be addressed. After a lawn mower accident at the age of 9, Williams has no toes on his right foot. This hasn’t been an issue for him in his three years at Kansas, as he was able to rush for more than 1,000 yards twice. Medically, this is a curiosity, but Williams has performed well and will be drafted on his game film, not his foot X-rays.
Wide receiver
Amari Rodgers, Clemson
Rodgers dealt with a major injury in the spring of his junior season but was injury free in his final season at Clemson. In 2019, Rodgers tore his ACL in spring practice and had surgery but managed to return in just five months, missing only one game. This is an abnormally quick recovery timeline and even beats Adrian Peterson's return from an ACL tear in 2012. Although not as productive as AP in his return junior year, Rodgers did come back to have a great final season at Clemson scoring seven touchdowns on 77 receptions. The long-term concern is the associated damage, and his medical grade will be based on a current MRI.
DeVonta Smith, Alabama
The Heisman Trophy winner's most public injury was when he dislocated his index finger in the national championship game. The finger injury was severe, as the team doctor was unable to reduce it on the field. Before the injury, Smith had an eye-popping 12 catches for 215 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first half. Surgery was required to relocate the finger but this should be a non-issue going forward (See Torry Holt). The clavicle fracture suffered in 2014 as a high school sophomore will require a follow up X-ray but should be a non-factor as the speedy wideout could be the first wide receiver selected in the draft after becoming the first WR since Desmond Howard (1991) to win the Heisman.
Sage Surratt, Wake Forest
Surratt suffered a major injury in his sophomore season at Wake Forest and opted out of the 2020 season. Surratt has not played since injuring his right shoulder versus Virginia Tech. Surratt injured his shoulder attempting to recover a loose ball and had subsequent surgery soon after. The exact nature of the injury wasn't reported but was likely to be a shoulder instability issue, causing the Demon Deacon to miss the final four games of the season. In nine game before his shoulder injury, Surrat recorded 11 touchdowns and just over 1,000 yards in what was shaping to be a fine statistical season. Medically, Surrat is currently healthy, but the bigger concern is there is no game film on him in over a year and a half.
Tamorrion Terry, Florida State
Terry dealt with two major injuries while at Florida State. In 2019, Terry suffered a meniscus tear in his right knee. He had surgery to address this injury prior to the start of 2019 preseason camp and was able to return for the season opener. The Seminole had an exceptional sophomore season catching 60 balls for almost 1,200 yards and nine scores. After unsuccessfully attempting to play through a knee injury during the 2020 season, Terry opted to have arthroscopic knee surgery to address the issue. Although he will be ready for the start of the new season, the concern is for long-term arthritis which is closely associated with a lateral meniscus tear. We would not be surprised if NFL teams downgraded him somewhat based on his medicals.
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Waddle suffered an ankle fracture dislocation and defied odds to return in just under three months after surgery. He was able to suit up and play in the National Championship game but noticeably limped and only managed three catches for 34 yards. Whether he should have played is a different question. Assuming an anatomic reduction was achieved at surgery, ultimately there should be full recovery heading into his first pro season. Before the major injury, Waddle was dynamic on the field, averaging 21.1 yards per catch in his final season at Alabama while amassing 17 receiving touchdowns in his three-year college career. Former Chargers and Eagles running back Darren Sproles had a similar injury with surgery early in his NFL career before continuing to have a long and productive career.
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State
Wallace dealt with a knee injury and groin strain that cost him one game total, but his real concern was an injury he suffered in his junior season. Wallace tore his ACL in practice and subsequently missed the final five games of the season. Before tearing his ACL, Wallace had a fantastic sophomore season at Oklahoma St. as he cashed in 86 receptions, almost 1500 yards and 13 touchdowns. As long as there is no articular cartilage damage from the ACL tear, Wallace should be in good shape for the draft medically speaking and warrants a selection in the second-third round as he dominated the Big 12 in his final three years.
Tight end
Pat Freiermuth, Penn State
In his final season at Penn State, Freiermuth suffered a right shoulder labral tear on Halloween. Freiermuth attempted to play through the shoulder injury for two weeks before deciding for labral repair surgery. Fortunately, the recovery is reliable and with the earlier surgery, he should be ready for parts of the OTAs and well ahead of training camp. The bulky tight end should be the second TE off the board as he has the ability to block and receive as he showcased in his sophomore season catching 43 passes and seven touchdowns.
Offensive line
Landon Dickerson, Alabama
His famous cartwheel has deflected attention from his significant medical history that is likely to cause him to slip some in the draft. Dickerson has torn his right ACL twice in his college career. He first tore his ACL in 2016 while at Florida St. and then again in 2020 after transferring to Alabama. A second surgery is always harder and statistically a harbinger of more knee scopes to come. Dickerson injury history goes deeper than the ACL tears as both his 2017 and 2018 season was cut short due to severe ankle injuries. The fact that he has only finished healthy in one of five collegiate football seasons is likely going to cost him in the eyes of NFL evaluators. Someone with his talent will get drafted but we would expect that to be significantly lower than if he had no medical issues.
Wyatt Davis, Ohio State
Davis suffered an undisclosed left knee injury in his final college season but did not require surgery. The injury happened in November 2020 and caused him to exit two more games prematurely including the National championship game versus Alabama. Despite the knee injury that plagued him late in the year, Davis was named Big 10 Offensive Lineman of the Year. Although the details are light, the knee injury should not be a major factor in his draft status.
Defense
Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
The media reports generated by his agent paints a rosy medical picture, but we have significant concerns. The Virginia Tech defensive back, projected to be drafted in the first round, had recent lumbar microdiscectomy surgery after opting out the past season. This is now his second back surgery. He has had discs removed at two different levels. This increases the chances of future lower-back problems. Media reports have him as the most talented defensive back in the draft, but his medical evaluation will play into when he is selected. Depending on what his exam and MRI look like, we could even see him falling out of the first round. Medically there is some long-term risk here. We don't doubt that he will be ready to go for training camp, but the worry is for the future. Farley will be a tempting selection for a contending team needing a superior talent today. He doesn't seem like a great fit for a team building for the future.
Jaelan Phillips, Miami
The star edge rusher has first-round talent, but his medical evaluation may cause him to slide. The two main issues are concussions and his wrist. Phillips has suffered three concussions in less than a year and has had problems with them since he was 10 years old. To enter the league with that history has to give clubs pause given the unpredictable nature of head injuries. After a moped accident, he had two wrist surgeries including what seems to be a proximal row carpectomy where bones were removed from his wrist. No question he can play football and has great physical skill as he showed in 2020 piling up eight sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. However, the wrist injury may keep him from the weight room work he needs in order to excel at the next level. His injury history likely has him red-flagged. Someone will take him due to his talent, but he carries significant medical risk.
