Chasing CLV – Lookahead lines for Week 4

As we enter Week 3 of the NFL slate, it’s important to remember that hunting value lines never ends. Oddsmakers already have early Week 4 odds up. The sharpest of bettors know this is an insanely good time to lay money on your convictions before oddsmakers adjust after this coming Sunday.

Sometimes expectations skew early-season lines. The best bettors are able to hedge against those expectations or dig their feet into them at the right time. The public is easily swayed by recent games, whereas we’re only reactive when we need to be. 

We’ve identified three Week 4 lines, as we look to chase line value. Let’s dig into the best bets for next week. 

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (October 3, 4:05 pm E.T.)

(Rams -6, O/U 53, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Cardinals are primed for a trap game performance against Jacksonville this week. While that’s good enough reason to fade them in Week 3, I believe we can grab them now at a good price before the Rams potentially lose to Tampa Bay and see less points their way in Week 4. I’m willing to take the risk that this is more likely than LA ripping off a blowout win against Tampa and therefore getting a bigger advantage for us to work with.

Arizona has given the Rams several issues throughout the years due to Kyler Murray‘s rushing ability. The Rams still have a terrific defense, but Murray presents extreme problems for any unit due to his downfield passing acumen and scrambling speed. This might be a sharp Cardinals moneyline play even.

Our pick: Cardinals +6 (-110)

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (October 3, 4:25 pm E.T.)

(Ravens -1, O/U 46.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Ravens have a top-four offense in the league, and I’m more than willing to bet their defense will settle much higher than the 29th place they’re in now. This team, even with injuries, might be the second-best in football. Being one-point road underdogs against a Denver team that has been impressive against low-caliber foes is a misdiagnosed line.

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There’s a lot to like about Denver’s play, and they’re in a good position to capitalize on being big favorites against the lowly Jets this week. But the jump to play an elite roster and coaching staff could expose them in completely new ways. The Ravens should be getting at least two more points, if not more.  

Our pick: Ravens -1 (-110)

Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons (October 3, 1:00 pm E.T.)

(WFT -1.5, O/U 48.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Atlanta might be the second-worst team in the NFL. Their defense lacks playmakers and the offense has a noodle-armed Matt Ryan calling the shots. Even at home they should be three-point underdogs against every team not from Jacksonville or Detroit.

Washington has their own quarterback issues but a plethora of playmakers and defensive stars to win close games. This line should swell after Week 3, as oddsmakers become more comfortable with Washington’s identity with Taylor Heinicke. 

Our pick: WFT -1.5 (-110) and Under 48.5 (-110)