Buying The Dip in Best Ball

Hot Best Ball Summer is nearly over, with less than two weeks remaining until kickoff and the start of the 2024 season. For those of you enrolled in slow drafts, be sure to keep your eye on the clock, which is now down from eight hours per pick to four, with an overnight pause between 2 a.m. to 8 a.m. ET.

Next Thursday, the pick clock will get even shorter, down to one hour, with a longer overnight pause starting at midnight and ending at 10 a.m. ET. The remaining drafts will be reduced to a 10-minute pick-clock on September 5 and will be further accelerated to one minute with two hours before kickoff. With just a few bullets remaining in Best Ball Mania, I want to be methodical with my approach and construct teams in unique ways that hadn’t been possible for most of the offseason. Aside from “scrolling the eff down” and getting wonky in the late rounds, there are other ways to differentiate your roster all throughout the draft. Although you won’t be separating yourself from the field to the same extent, buying the dip on players who are priced significantly cheaper than where they opened is an easy way to create rare combinations that had not always been available without reaching, and it will give you maximum leverage in the playoffs. 

From Week 15 on, players begin to overlap and appear on multiple rosters, making it critical to find ways to differentiate yourself from your opponents. In this article, I’m going to highlight a handful of players I’m prioritizing whose stock has plummeted throughout the draft season but are now worth buying into at a much more palatable ADP.

Buying the Dip in Best Ball

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

ADP: 26.0 (WR18)

Brandon Aiyuk has been at the center of trade talks all offseason, which has again ramped up following the Jahan Dotson trade. 

When Best Ball Mania first opened, and Aiyuk looked likely to stay in San Francisco, he was the second 49er off the board behind Christian McCaffrey early in the second round and was often gone by the one/two turn. Now he’s flipped with Deebo Samuel in ADP and has consistently been available in the early to mid-third round, despite still being on the team. Even if Aiyuk is moved, it’s hard to envision his stock falling much further, especially in this wide receiver-crazy environment, with the contest closing soon. We already know how the market values Aiyuk in his current situation off a breakout campaign in which he led the 49ers in targets (105), receptions (75) and receiving yards (1,342), tied for first in receiving touchdowns (7) and finished as a WR1 for the first time in his career (WR12). 

There weren’t many receivers as efficient as Aiyuk was last season. He led the NFL in yards per target (12.8) and trailed only George Pickens in yards per reception (17.9). He was also one of just three players with a three-plus yards per route run rate, and he posted the seventh-highest mark over the last decade (3.06). The production matched the film and graded out first in ESPN’s overall receiver rating (96) and second in PFF receiving grade (91.7).

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 90.6 (WR49)

DeAndre Hopkins has made a career out of overcoming difficult situations with less-than-ideal play under center, which was once again the case in 2023. He took no time getting acclimated to his new team and led the Titans in targets (137), receptions (75), receiving yards (1,057), and receiving touchdowns (7) and finished as a top-25 wide receiver despite playing in a prehistoric offense that ranked bottom eight in DVOA (-10.1). 

Even in his 11th NFL season, Hopkins was one of the best separators in the league. He tied with A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson for fifth overall in ESPN’s open score (82) and led the NFL in unrealized air yards (1,149). Since suffering a knee sprain earlier this offseason, Hopkins’ ADP has dropped nearly two full rounds, which makes it the perfect time to buy back in, especially with the recent reports expecting him to be ready by Week 1.

His stock should rise in the upcoming days, but it likely won’t move fast enough with less than two weeks remaining to draft.

Juwan Johnson TE, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 197.8 (TE25)

Juwan Johnson has missed most of the offseason with a foot injury but was recently activated off the PUP list, was already back on the field and looks like a full-go for Week 1. 

Since undergoing surgery, Johnson has dropped nearly two rounds in ADP, which makes him one of the few late-round tight ends to actually get excited about. Injuries have been a recurring issue for Johnson, but when healthy he’s played a critical role in the Saints offense. 

He missed four games with a calf injury in 2023 but came on strong in the back half of the season. He found the end zone and finished as a top-10 tight end in all three games during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17) and scored a season-high 19 half PPR points in Week 17, which was first at the position. Without Michael Thomas in the last seven games, Johnson saw a significant uptick in volume and earned a target on 24% of his routes. That came out to 8.1 half-PPR points during that span.