Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Team Profile
Buffalo Bills
11-3-0
1st
AFC East
-
26.5% 2ndOff DVOA
-
52.4% 2ndPassing DVOA
-
12.4% 3rdRushing DVOA
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-4.7% 10thDef DVOA
-
4.4% 13thDef Passing DVOA
-
-17% 6thDef Rushing DVOA
2024 Team Stats
-
Points For31.8 2nd
-
Points Against22.1 12th
-
Yards Per Game370.0 7th
-
Yards Allowed Per Game346.0 23rd
Ftn model pick
71.56%
28.44%
| Edge | Win % | Sportbook | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Spread
|
|
|
|
|
|
Moneyline
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
Matchup Stats
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Starting lineup
Buffalo Bills
Matchup STATS
Rank
Total
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
31.8
|
2 nd
|
24.1
|
23 rd
|
Points Per Game
|
17.0
|
31 st
|
22.1
|
12 th
|
|
370.0
|
7 th
|
344.0
|
21 st
|
Yards Per Game
|
292.0
|
30 th
|
346.0
|
23 rd
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3,345
|
6 th
|
3,034
|
15 th
|
Passing Yards
|
2,422
|
32 nd
|
3,192
|
23 rd
|
|
7.8
|
5 th
|
7.0
|
24 th
|
Pass Yards per Attempt
|
5.5
|
30 th
|
6.7
|
16 th
|
|
25
|
7 th
|
22
|
20 th
|
Passing Touchdowns
|
14
|
30 th
|
23
|
21 st
|
|
5
|
4 th
|
6
|
27 th
|
Interceptions
|
10
|
15 th
|
13
|
8 th
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Interception Worthy Throws
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
|
|
th
|
|
rd
|
Catchable Air Yards
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
|
|
nd
|
|
th
|
Pass Rate
|
|
th
|
|
st
|
|
|
th
|
|
rd
|
Explosive Pass Rate
|
|
st
|
|
rd
|
|
|
rd
|
|
th
|
Man Coverage Rate
|
|
nd
|
|
th
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Zone Coverage Rate
|
|
st
|
|
rd
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Man Yards Per Attempt
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Zone Yards Per Attempt
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Pressure Rate
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
|
|
st
|
|
rd
|
Time to Throw
|
|
th
|
|
st
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1,831
|
9 th
|
1,784
|
20 th
|
Rushing Yards
|
1,670
|
14 th
|
1,648
|
14 th
|
|
4.6
|
8 th
|
4.4
|
15 th
|
Rushing Yards Per Attempt
|
4.6
|
8 th
|
4.7
|
24 th
|
|
28
|
1 st
|
13
|
15 th
|
Rushing Touchdowns
|
9
|
25 th
|
11
|
7 th
|
|
6
|
1 st
|
10
|
27 th
|
Fumbles
|
20
|
31 st
|
16
|
6 th
|
|
42.5%
|
11 th
|
44.6%
|
29 th
|
Rush Rate
|
37.5%
|
23 rd
|
38.8%
|
12 th
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Yards Before Contact
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Yards After Contact
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
|
|
nd
|
|
th
|
Missed Tackle Rate
|
|
nd
|
|
th
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Stuffed Run Rate
|
|
th
|
|
rd
|
|
|
th
|
|
th
|
Explosive Run Rate
|
|
th
|
|
st
|
Player Projections
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
21.6
|
32.9
|
65.7
|
268.4
|
8.2
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
38.6
|
0.8
|
25.1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14.1
|
64.0
|
4.5
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
2.0
|
15.4
|
0.1
|
12.2
|
|
|
5.7
|
25.1
|
4.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
10.6
|
-
|
4.8
|
|
|
2.1
|
10.3
|
4.9
|
-
|
0.0
|
1.5
|
22.4
|
0.1
|
4.5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.8
|
53.9
|
11.3
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
-
|
9.9
|
|
|
2.9
|
51.5
|
17.6
|
0.3
|
-
|
-
|
8.1
|
|
|
3.0
|
37.5
|
12.5
|
0.3
|
-
|
-
|
6.8
|
|
|
3.8
|
40.8
|
10.9
|
0.3
|
-
|
-
|
7.5
|
|
|
1.1
|
13.8
|
12.7
|
0.1
|
-
|
-
|
2.3
|
|
|
1.1
|
16.2
|
14.9
|
0.1
|
-
|
-
|
2.5
|
|
|
0.7
|
6.2
|
8.6
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
-
|
1.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
22.5
|
32.6
|
69.0
|
209.8
|
6.4
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
33.5
|
0.3
|
16.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
14.7
|
63.0
|
4.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
2.4
|
10.9
|
0.1
|
11.2
|
|
|
7.1
|
33.5
|
4.7
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
1.3
|
12.8
|
-
|
5.9
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.6
|
44.2
|
9.6
|
0.3
|
-
|
-
|
8.2
|
|
|
3.3
|
40.0
|
12.1
|
0.2
|
-
|
-
|
6.6
|
|
|
3.9
|
33.4
|
8.6
|
0.2
|
1.0
|
-
|
6.3
|
|
|
3.1
|
32.5
|
10.5
|
0.2
|
-
|
-
|
5.8
|
|
|
2.8
|
28.4
|
10.3
|
0.2
|
-
|
-
|
5.2
|
|
|
1.1
|
7.6
|
6.8
|
0.1
|
-
|
-
|
1.7
|
