College Basketball Best Bets (12/21)

Welcome to a Saturday slate of college basketball. With the NFL, CFB Playoffs and NBA, there’s a lot going on, but I’m glad you joined for the best sport going. It’s been a bit of a difficult season to predict game by game so far. With all the moving pieces in the transfer portal era and so many big names playing for a paycheck in the NIL era, there is even more to consider when making wagers.

Still, we continue on, as every day gives us more and more data to become sharper. Let’s jump right in.

Last Article: 2-3 | Season (Articles): 9-11 | Season (Overall): 36-37

College Basketball Best Bets

UCLA vs. North Carolina

Madison Square Garden
UCLA -1.5 | Total: 150.5

In the first half of the CBS Sports Classic, we have the battle of the blue bloods in what should be an excellent game that could come down to the wire. This season has gone in two different directions for each program. UCLA has started hot at 10-1 with their only loss coming against New Mexico on a neutral court. Otherwise, they have solid wins over Oregon and Arizona — their western brethren. North Carolina may have a top-10 strength of schedule, but if the tournament started today, I’m not sure you could give them a bid. The Tar Heels are 6-5 on the young year with their only top 100 win against Dayton. They have faced four KenPom top-10 teams however and have played up to a lot of their competition.

Saturday, the key for UNC will be ball control. UCLA is the best defense in the nation at forcing turnovers and ranks fourth at defensive field goal rate. They allow opponents to take the fewest shot attempts among basically all DI teams with a high steal percentage and few second-chance opportunities. UNC has yet to face a top-100 team that ranks as such and there’s a pretty clear correlation between their success and ball control. Elliot Cadeau isn’t the best facilitator, so assuming RJ Davis runs point all should go well. If Davis and Cadeau can find their frontcourt pieces in Drake Powell, Jae’Lyn Withers or Ven-Allen Lubin the Tar Heels might be in business against UCLA’s sub-250 ranked near-proximity defense.

On the other side of the ball, the UCLA transfers have come together quicker than expected under Mick Cronin. Tyler Bilodeau has been highlighted as a great two-way player as the highest scorer on an offense that leads more to be desired. Holding Arizona to 54 points is insanely impressive, but only scoring 57 is a little concerning. The Bruins don’t exactly prefer the perimeter look, but if they let Eric Dailey and Dylan Andrews fire away, they can capitalize against a sub-par UNC three-point defense. UCLA also ranks 358th in Haslametrics’ consistency metric so don’t be afraid to bet some alts in this game because sometimes their offense simply doesn’t show up.

Despite what should be a fast game considering UNC break kneck speed, the overall field goal rate should be limited on both sides. The Tar Heels won’t force many turnovers, but they will cap UCLA’s offensive boards and won’t give them many freebies at the charity stripe. UCLA should handle the Tar Heels’ transition offense and keep many second-chance looks at bay. I’ll be on the under here in this neutral court match.

Prediction

UCLA 74, UNC 72

Best Bet

Under 151.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Ohio State vs. Kentucky

Madison Square Garden
Kentucky -7.5 | Total: 160.5

I won’t bury the lede here — I expect Kentucky to walk all over Ohio State in the second matchup of the CBS Sports Classic at MSG. Ohio State has padded its metrics by whooping bad teams and struggling against any top-25 opponent. They may have beaten a 203rd KenPom-ranked Youngstown State 81-47 but lost to Auburn 91-53 and Maryland 83-59. The Buckeyes are also 6-1 ATS at home and 1-3 in neutral/away games.

Kentucky meanwhile handled Duke and Gonzaga away from Rupp Arena, and I can see them doing the same today. They are a top-10 unit with only a 13% turnover rate, and even with the Kerr Kriisa injury, they don’t seem to have missed a beat. Lamont Butler has been excellent and Koby Brea is limitless from deep. Their 12th-ranked three-point defense might regress a little, and they face an Ohio State team that can be deadly from deep, but those numbers are largely increased by their home games against the Green Bays and Campbells of the world.

I’m also not sure how Ohio State stops Kentucky’s offense here. The Buckeyes foul freely, don’t force turnovers, allow a field goal rate that ranks outside the top 300 with an interior defense outside the top 100. So even if their perimeter shooting is struggling Kentucky can always feed Otega Oweh, Amari Williams or Andrew Carr down low. They have options.

I mentioned taking alts in the previous game but for Kentucky I seriously recommend it. The Buckeyes have the largest gap in efficiency when playing at home vs. neutral/road games. They also rank 353rd in the consistency metric. I expect the Wildcats to win by double-digits here and would be truly flummoxed if anything else happens.

Prediction

Kentucky 84, Ohio State 71

Best Bet

Kentucky -7.0 (-112, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Purdue vs. Auburn

Legacy Arena — Birmingham, AL
Auburn -8.5 | Total: 149.5

This is probably the game I’m most fascinated by on Saturday’s slate. Some analytical sites set this as a 12-point spread, others around 4.5, and the Vegas line sits around 8.5 after opening around 10. Isn’t betting on college basketball fun? The elephant in the room of course is Johni Broome’s status. One of the leaders for the Wooden Award left the Georgia State game after two minutes with a shoulder injury and his status can swing the spread one way or another. While this game isn’t being played in Neville Arena, this is essentially a home game for Auburn, all things considered.

That home-court advantage is big here, especially against a team like Purdue. The Boilermakers handled Alabama last month in Mackey Arena and then turned around and couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn at Marquette — two top-10 teams, two completely different results. Of course, Matt Painter and Co. have had a little more time to prepare for this game, but it will still be difficult playing away from West Lafayette considering all three of their losses have been in such games.

Auburn has also been impressively dominant so far this season with the highest field goal rate and most efficient offense in the nation by basically any metric. Without Johni Broome in the fold, they still are a powerhouse. Dylan Cardwell and his 6-11 frame can still hold down the paint and Chaney Johnson has been impressive in his sophomore season, tallying 26 points against Georgia State in Broome’s absence.

If Purdue hopes to keep this game close, they need their sharpshooters Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Camden Heide to step up from deep. Trey Kaufman-Renn must get a physical Auburn team in foul trouble without as much depth and Purdue can be cooking. Kaufman-Renn does draw fouls at one of the highest clips in the nation and with the number of shooters on this Purdue team I think they are more than capable of executing that kind of plan with a week to prep.

In the end I’m going to assume Johni Broome is out and take the points with Purdue. Broome may be the single most important player in this country and without him, Auburn should be closer to a five- or six-point favorite. I still expect Auburn to take this game down if you care to middle after Broome news drops but with the capacity to get the Tigers in foul trouble and widdle their depth a bit along with their 40% perimeter shooting Purdue should keep this one close.

Prediction

Auburn 78, Purdue 74

Best Bet

Purdue +9.5 (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)