Bowl Slate Preview (Dec. 21)

The college football playoffs are underway, and we have three more first-round games on tap for the Saturday slate. We will break down each of the matchups with a focus on DFS as well as a betting perspective. Let’s get into it.

CFB Playoff First Round

SMU vs. Penn State

Happy Valley will be buzzing, as the Nittany Lions host their first-round playoff matchup against the SMU Mustangs. Penn State is a storied program with a rich history, steeped in tradition but questions remain about their current head coach James Franklin being able to win the big one. An upset loss in the first round would be a disaster and cause plenty of unrest among the fan base and boosters alike. However, the team is well positioned and has some truly elite players taking the field Saturday.

It starts with quarterback Drew Allar. He is easily playing the best football of his career, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. He has thrown for nearly 2,900 yards and 21 TDs to 7 INTs. He’s also shown off a sneaky ability to get it done with his legs, rushing for 279 yards and 6 TDs. 

They’ve also got one of the best running back duos in all of college football. Nicholas Singleton is extremely versatile, getting done on the ground (838 rushing yards) and as a receiver (37-335-5). Kaytron Allen has been an asset as well, rushing for 822 yards and 6 TDs. It’s a great luxury to be able to roll out either back without worrying about a drop in production.

Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren should feast against this Mustangs defense, and we know that he can do it in myriad ways. He has reeled in 88 catches for 1,062 yards and 6 TDs while also rushing for 191 yards on 23 carries. The defense knows they’re going to force feed him the ball, and they still can’t stop it. Deep threat Omari Evans (18-348-4) looms as well.

SMU has had an impressive first year in the ACC and an early change to Kevin Jennings at quarterback made it all possible. Jennings has developed on the fly as a passer and has always been dangerous with his mobility. He has eclipsed 3,000 passing yards while rushing for 379 and scoring a total of 27 touchdowns (22 passing/5 rushing).

Brashard Smith has been very good since transferring from Miami and has eclipsed 1,200 yards on the ground. The Mustangs have also kept their passing game efficient despite suffering a multitude of injuries at the receiver positions. This speaks volumes about their depth. Roddy Daniels (38-599-3), Jordan Hudson (35-382-5) and TE Matthew Hibner (22-330-4) will have to come up big against this Penn State defense. 

I do think SMU has a better chance than most people give them credit for to be competitive in this game, but they’re ultimately going to fall short against terminator-like Penn State squad Saturday.

DFS Targets

Drew Allar
Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen
Tyler Warren
Omari Evans
Roddy Daniels
Matthew Hibner
Kevin Jennings

Best Bets

Penn State -9 (-110, DraftKings)
Tyler Warren 2+ Touchdowns (+350, FanDuel)
Drew Allar Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

CFB Playoff First Round

Clemson vs. Texas

I’m seeing quite a bit of people picking Clemson to win this game, and I honestly don’t see it. I think both offenses are going to be successful through the air, but ultimately I’m expecting Texas to advance.

The Tigers are extremely banged up at the RB position and are unlikely to find much traction against the typically stout Texas defensive front. This means they’ll have to rely on Cade Klubnik and his capable group of pass-catchers.

Klubnik has thrown for over 3,000 yards and has an impressive 33-5 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for nearly 500 yards and 7 touchdowns, which is an area of his game that has shown vast improvement. The threat of Klubnik running has really opened up the passing game fully.

A pair of freshmen receivers have been massively important to the resurgence of Clemson. Bryant Wesco exploded in the ACC title game for 143 yards and 2 TDs on 8 catches. Despite missing time to an injury, he has posted a stat line of 38-678-5 in his first collegiate season. The best is yet to come for Wesco. Fellow frosh TJ Moore has caught 36 passes for 535 yards and 4 TDs while flashing as an important deep threat. 

Veterans Antonio Williams (70-836-10) and Jake Briningstool (45-461-7) give the Tigers one of the best pass-catching groups in the playoffs. But will it be enough?

Clemson’s secondary has sprung a leak at the worst possible time and the Longhorns are going to be able to pick them apart. Quinn Ewers won’t turn heads statistically speaking but the kid has been a winner this year and does enough each game to keep the Longhorns going. 

The running backs have been a jumbled mess, and it’s currently Quintrevion Wisner (863 yards) who sits atop the depth chart. I do think Clemson’s rush defense will be better in this game and fading Texas RBs has been a profitable move all year long, no reason to stop doing it now.

Isaiah Bond is considered doubtful for this game due to an ankle injury but that’s not going to be as big of a problem as you may think. Bond hasn’t shown consistency this season and has fallen down the pecking order because of it. Instead, it’s been Matthew Golden (47-738-8) and DeAndre Moore (31-387-6) that have been Ewers go-to targets. Tight End Gunnar Helm (49-611-5) operates as a safety valve and you have a group with amazing chemistry. 

This very well could come down to which offense has the ball last and there should be no shortage of fireworks, which has me on the over.

DFS Targets

Bryant Wesco
Antonio Williams
TJ Moore
DeAndre Moore
Matthew Golden
Gunnar Helm

Best Bets

Over 50.5 Total Points (-110, DraftKings)
Quinn Ewers Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Bryant Wesco ATTD (+220, FanDuel)

CFB Playoff First Round

Tennessee vs. Ohio State

This is one of the more intriguing matchups of the first round, and it may surprise you to hear that I believe it’s the most likely upset of the initial playoff matchups. There is immense pressure on the Buckeyes to advance, and head coach Ryan Day’s seat is a bit warmer after losing to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite. A loss to the Vols in round 1 would be disastrous for all involved with the Buckeyes program.

Season-ending injuries to their starting left tackle and center have caused their line play to unravel, which has been prevalent the last few games. They’re going to have to find a way to run the ball effectively to open things up for their talented receivers, and that won’t be easy against a Vols defense that surrenders less than 100 YPG on the ground.

If the Buckeyes are unable to get TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins going then they’ll have to utilize a dink-and-dunk style approach, which is what they were able to do against Indiana as the game went on. Will Howard’s had his fair share of struggles, but he simply can’t afford to make mistakes in a win or go home setting. He’s been sharp overall this season, completing 72.3% of his passes for 2,860 yards and 27 TDs to 8 INTs. However, he has been picked off 3 times in the past two games. 

Luckily for Howard, he has several future pros to throw the ball to in Emeka Egbuka (60-743-9) and frosh star Jeremiah Smith (57-934-10). Additionally, Carnell Tate (41-583-4) has emerged as a consistent third option which will keep defenses from keying in on Smith so much.

The Vols have an advantage when it comes to line play, and that is an aspect of this game that people aren’t talking about enough. Top running back Dylan Sampson is going to be a real problem for the Buckeyes and should handle a heavy workload in hostile territory. He has rushed for 1,487 yards and 22 touchdowns. He has toted the rock 19+ times in 9 of the Vols 12 games so he is perfectly capable of literally carrying the team once again on the offensive side.

Young QB Nico Iamaleava lost his Heisman hype early as he went through growing pains, but he looked spectacular against UTEP and Vandy in recent weeks but neither of those teams are Ohio State of course. Still, it’s a positive sign to see Nico throw for 466 yards and 8 touchdowns in those last two contests. Nico’s had to grow up quickly and his legacy will be cemented if he can lead the Vols to a huge victory in round one.

The receiver room is littered with injuries unfortunately with Squirrel White, Dont’e Thornton and Bru McCoy’s status up in the air. Miles Kitselman, Chris Brazzell and Holden Staes have shown chemistry with Nico and will have to step up if any of the usual starters sit out.

The Vols are a difficult matchup for the Buckeyes stylistically speaking and there is a very real chance they pull off the shocking first round upset. Establishing the run early will be crucial, which is something the Vols have done often and winning the battle of the trenches will cause panic over on the Ohio State sidelines. Don’t sleep on the Vols or you may find yourself throwing your bracket into the trash in December instead of March.

DFS Targets

Dylan Samson
Jeremiah Smith
Carnell Tate
Emeka Egbuka
Nico Iamaleava
Chris Brazzell

Best Bets

Tennessee +7.5 (-112, DraftKings)
Dylan Sampson Over 92.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Jeremiah Smith Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Underdog Plays

Dylan Sampson Over 92.5 Rushing Yards
DeAndre Moore Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
Quintrevion Wisner Under 88.5 Rushing Yards
Cade Klubnik Over 217.5 Passing Yards
Tyler Warren Over 14.15 Fantasy Points