Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
A matchup that was circled on the calendar as soon as the 2021 NFL schedule was announced: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are headed to New England to face the Patriots for Week 4. Why it’s notable is quarterback Tom Brady is returning to his old stomping grounds to face the team he played for in 19 seasons and face his former head coach, Bill Belichick. Despite dropping a game to the Los Angeles Rams, oddsmakers have installed the Bucs as 6-point favorites with a total of 49.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots Week 4 odds
Date/Time: October 3, 8:20 p.m. ET
Arena: Gillette Stadium
How to watch: NBC
Opening odds: Buccaneers -6 | O/U 49 (BetMGM)
Latest Buccaneers-Patriots odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Check them out.
Opening odds – Buccaneers vs. Patriots
The lookahead line for this matchup was -3.5 but after Week 3 results, sportsbooks have moved the spread to Bucs -6 for this anticipated showdown. Over 90% of early bets are on the Bucs so look for this spread to keep climbing in favor of the Tampa Bay.
As for the total, it’s hovering around 49 with 60% of early bets trending to the UNDER. After watching the Patriots offense struggle through three games, bettors may think this matchup could be a tightly contested battle in Foxborough.
Quarterback analysis – Tom Brady vs. Mac Jones
The oldest player in the league facing the youngest quarterback and his one-year-later replacement, Tom Brady and Mac Jones truly represent the circle of life for an NFL quarterback. Brady is already in GOAT status with seven Super Bowl rings and multiple MVP trophies and trying to add more to his jewelry collection in 2021. Brady has 1,087 passing yards through three games to go with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions and a rushing touchdown. Safe to say that that Brady is doing just fine as a 44-year-old.
Jones, on the other hand, looks almost like Brady did in his first few seasons in New England. Decent accuracy, bit passive and a low yards-per-attempt at 6.1 per pass. The problem with Mac Jones right now is he doesn’t have near the playmakers that Brady does at this stage of his career, which reduces his margin for error. It was clearly noticeable in Week 3 vs the Saints when he was held to 58.8% completions and three interceptions.
Latest Buccaneers betting news & info
Although the Bucs suffered their first loss since November 2020, it’s not like they coughed it up at the end or made boneheaded mistakes. They played the 3-0 Rams, who are one of the top teams likely to win Super Bowl 56. It’s a respectable loss. That said, the Bucs can’t act like their next game is a walk in the park either heading to New England.
One of the most successful parts of the Buccaneers offense this season is their passing attack looks unrivaled. The trio of receivers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown is formidable and even ex-Patriot Rob Gronkowski is doing his part with four TD receptions in 2021. Offensively, the run game needs to be better as they rank 31st in NFL in rushing yards per game (56.1) and only two TDs on the ground in three games.
The Bucs’ secondary has also been carved up this season as they rank 31st in passing yards allowed and tied for last in passing touchdowns allowed. That will even out throughout the season but it’s not a good trend for a defense that was the team’s bread and butter during the Super Bowl 56 run.
Latest Patriots betting news & info
Week 3 might be a key indicator/litmus test of where the New England Patriots are as a franchise. Jones may have struggled, but it wasn’t supposed to be so hard for the rookie with the offseason acquisitions of tight ends, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. These two free agents have combined for 20 catches and no touchdowns through three games, and bettors may start to wonder if head coach Bill Belichick will take the safety off and start allowing Jones to fire.
Despite missing All-Pro cornerback Stefon Gilmore for the opening part of the season, the Patriots defense has been fairly decent in defending the pass. The Pats have only allowed 479 passing yards but its the ground game where they’ve been suspect as they’ve allowed an average of 127.9 rush yards per game. That’s keeping New England’s defense on the field for too long and it will be a true test to see where the defense stands. The Bucs are great passing the ball, not so much running it. If the Patriots can neutralize Tom Brady’s passing attack and make the Bucs a running team, it may work out better in their favor to win their second game of the season.
Buccaneers vs. Patriots betting picks – NFL Week 4
Most of the public action is on the Buccaneers -6, and I tend to agree with that. The Patriots may be able to keep the Bucs in check offensively for a little while, but Jones and this offense haven’t shown much through three games that they can score enough points to compete. That’s another reason why I’d lean to the UNDER as I think this will be a one-sided affair for Tampa Bay.
Here are our betting picks for Buccaneers vs. Patriots in Week 4.
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