Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
JJ Watt signs with the Cardinals
After being cut by the Houston Texans, three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt has agreed to a two-year, $32 million deal ($23 million in guarantees) with the Arizona Cardinals, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
Fantasy analysis
The NFL rumor mill was buzzing Monday with a trio of possible destinations for free agent J.J. Watt. Much to the shock of Watt’s Peloton account, he landed with Arizona. Obviously, bringing in a player of Watt’s caliber is an instant upgrade for the Cardinals’ defense, but let’s dive into how his addition will impact this defensive front.
J.J. Watt’s arrival makes the Cardinals’ pass rush a fearsome unit to deal with in 2021. Despite Watt’s counting stats being down this past season, his underlying metrics are just as strong as ever. In 2020, Watt managed to play a full 16 games but only finished with five sacks to show for his efforts. This is more of a reflection of a putrid Texans’ defense around him than anything else. Among 110 defensive ends to play 200 or more pass-rush snaps in 2020, Watt finished 26th in pressures (45) and tied for 12th in quarterback hits (11). Watt’s signing means that 2020 Arizona sack leader (12.5) and unrestricted free agent Haason Reddick is likely definitely gone. Don’t fear, though, as Chandler Jones is returning from a biceps injury that limited him to five games last season. Jones and Watt will compete weekly for the team’s sack leader, and make no mistake, Jones will give him a run for his money. In Jones’ previous four seasons in Arizona, he averaged a ludicrous 15 sacks per season.
With the Watt signing, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has to feel like Christmas has come early. The Cardinals ranked eighth in pressure rate (25.9%) and adjusted sack rate last season, and with the duo of Watt and Jones, those numbers could rise. Joseph called blitz at a furious pace in 2020, ranking fourth (39.4%), and with Watt now inhouse, expect that number to be inside the top five again. Watt is no slouch at stopping the run either. Last season, among 77 defensive ends with 200 or more run plays defended, he ranked 33rd in run stop rate (6.2%). The Cardinals definitely needed a boost in this department after finishing 18th in adjusted line yards, 16th in second-level yards and 27th in open field yards allowed in 2020.
No matter what angle you approach this signing, this was a definite home run for Arizona and a perfect marriage for J.J. Watt. With the defense on the rise, the Cardinals could improve on last year’s 8-8 finish and fly into the playoffs in Kliff Kingsbury’s third season.
