Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp openings, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Derek Brown, profile their favorite Booms, Busts, Breakouts and Bets for every NFL team. Giddy up, gamers. Today’s topic: The Steel Towners.
Fantasy Football Booms – Steelers
Najee Harris, RB
Najee Harris is a nimble-footed pass-catching volume behemoth primed to finish as a top-10 fantasy football back. Harris’ combination of soft hands and tackle-breaking ability is special. In his final season at Alabama, Harris ranked 22nd in yards per route run among all collegiate running backs with 20 or more targets. He also led the nation in missed tackles forced (22) on receptions.
Mike Tomlin will continue his penchant for featuring one back as Harris will be his every-down engine. The Steelers offensive line is a concern, but not a big enough worry to fade Harris. Harris has 50-plus touches coming via the air, where the offensive line woes will be mitigated. If you select Travis Kelce or a wide receiver in the first round, press the draft button with confidence, with Harris as your RB1 in the second round. — Derek Brown
Najee Harris, RB
If you, in a frantic state trying to catch a train before it frustratingly leaves you behind, needed a cleared path through a sea of people, Harris would be the ideal helping hand. He’s a battering ram with a spectacular multi-dimensional skill set, a player who thrived during his two-year tenure as Nick Saban’s primary mound mover. Last season for the national champs, he finished top-five in yards after contact and totaled missed tackles forced among Division I RBs. Slippery in space, powerful and sure-handed, he’s Pittsburgh’s newest Le’Veon Bell.
It’s frankly comical Harris is typically going mid-Round 2 in 12-team drafts (RB13, 18.92 ADP). Yes, the Steelers offensive line has many unanswered questions, but the administration didn’t completely abandon it this offseason, adding a couple big bodies in the draft. If they coalesce into a respectable unit, the rookie is bound to thrive. Remember, he’ll register what every fantasy manager covets in a running back, volume. Over a 17-game season, he, barring major injury, is a near-lock for 300 touches. The staff hasn’t been bashful about wanting to deploy him in various ways, including running routes as an ‘X’ receiver. If everything comes together, Harris finishes in or around 1,400 combined yards with 55-65 receptions and double-digit TDs. — Brad Evans
2021 Fantasy Football Busts – Steelers
Diontae Johnson, WR
Admittedly, listing Johnson here emphasized preference. This dunderhead’s ideal weapons of choice are JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR32, 72.64 ADP) and Claypool (WR28, 65.02). They’re considerably cheaper and will inevitably present more reliability on a week-to-week basis.
Johnson’s 144 targets are undeniably attractive. He, however, ranked outside the top-80 in average depth of target (8.50) and fantasy points per target. His 11 red-zone looks in 15 games and WR42 standing in air yards percentage also trigger queasy feelings. More concerning are his consistent confounding drops (11 in 2020; most in the NFL) and acquired various nicks and scrapes. Again, the surface data is encouraging, but underlying warts imply he’s overvalued. — Brad Evans
Eric Ebron, TE
Eric Ebron‘s time as a worthwhile fantasy producer has come to an end. At age 27, where we see many tight ends still in the prime of their careers, Ebron finished with the second-lowest yards per route run (1.22) of his career. The only season he was more anemic in this metric was his 2014 rookie season (0.86).
That’s a coffin nail for a player whose calling card has been his effectiveness as a receiver. Ebron’s snaps are going to take a hit because of his putrid blocking skills with Pat Freiermuth now in the Steel City. In 2020, Ebron finished 75th out of 79 tight ends with 100 or more run-blocking snaps in PFF’s run-blocking grades.
Even though the draft cost isn’t high to roster Ebron as your TE2, selecting him in the late rounds is burning a draft pick. You’ll find yourself dropping him only a couple of games into the season. — Derek Brown
Fantasy Football Breakouts for the Steelers
Chase Claypool, WR
Chase Claypool is a size-speed monster who could smash his ADP with a full-time role this season. After taking over as a starter in Weeks 3-9, Pittsburgh limited him later in the season, as he played higher than 68% of the snaps only once down the stretch.
Claypool has the athleticism and ability after the catch to compensate for Ben Roethlisberger‘s limited passing skills. Despite ranking 15th in aDOT last season (among 82 wide receivers with 50 or more targets), he also finished 16th in yards after the catch per reception (5.4). Claypool finished immediately behind Terry McLaurin in this statistical category. Claypool has the overall upside and week-winning ceiling we seek when drafting WR3s in fantasy football. — Derek Brown
Chase Claypool, WR
Ask any volume bettor and they’ll tell you any given Sunday opportunities are omnipresent. Some are taken advantage of. Others are viewed as enormous missed cashings. Claypool’s rookie season mirrored the perspective. After a flurry of standout fantasy point performances early on the slate, he, like the Steelers as a whole, slipped into a statistical coma. In Weeks 1-11, he cranked out the 15th-most valuable WR line. However, from Week 12 on he scored once and ranked WR25.
Under the surface, his profile screams POSITIVE REGRESSION. He finished 2020 No. 4 in total unrealized air yards and No. 90 in catchable target rate. Unbelievably, for all the heat the offensive line endured publicly, Ben Roethlisberger was placed under duress on just 20.9% of his dropbacks, the lowest mark of any QB with at least 145 snaps played. If the future HOFer regains his downfield touch (QB31 in deep-ball cmp%), those empty throws to Claypool last year could become meter-moving connections. At his WR28 ADP (65.02 overall), there’s plenty of profitability to be had. — Brad Evans
Best Bets for the Steelers 2021
(Use the FTN Prop Shop to uncover the best lines across legal sportsbooks)
Najee Harris OVER 900.5 rush yards (-115, PointsBet)
Were the oddsmakers on illicit, mind-altering drugs when this line was set? Even if he missed 3-4 games, Harris, as the projected workhorse, will smash the proposed total. Over 17 games all he has to average is 53.0 rush yards per game. He could accomplish that while dragging an 18-wheeler. — Brad Evans
Najee Harris OVER 900.5 rush yards (-115, PointsBet)
I’m doubling down with senor Evans here. There’s a glitch in the system. A spreadsheet has been corrupted. Something is tragically wrong with this line, as Harris will smash the over here with games to spare. — Derek Brown
