Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite books, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Adam Gase’s Smoldering Dumpster.
Booms
Breshad Perriman, WR
Every year, fantasy playoff heroes emerge from the darkest recesses of the waiver wire. Perriman, last December with Tampa, was the latest example.
Vaulted into a hefty target share after injuries sidelined Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, the Tampa wide receiver finally delivered on his NFL Draft Round 1 promise from 2015 and then some. During the money-making phase of the fantasy season — Weeks 13-17 — he was the third-most valuable wide receiver in the virtual game. Over that fiery span he averaged 5.0 receptions and 101.2 yards per game while totaling five touchdowns. All the more impressive, he posted a 19.8-yard average depth of target and averaged 20.2 yards per catch, with famously erratic Jameis Winston as his quarterback. On the year, Perriman was WR106 in catchable target percentage.
Gase’s glacial offense and refusal to throw often downfield (3.9 attempts/game of 20-plus yards in ‘19) is starkly different from Bruce Arians’ (expletive)-it-and-chuck-it mentality. Sam Darnold, too, is a downgrade after his QB24 showing in deep-ball passer rating a season ago. Still, Perriman should generate a formidable 90-plus targets. If his embers from late last year continue to emit heat, he’ll bear fruits at his WR57 (142.1) ADP. — Brad Evans
Le'Veon Bell, RB
The last two years haven’t been especially kind to anyone who has supported Bell for fantasy purposes. His 2018 holdout was a complete disaster, and he followed that up with one of the most middling seasons in NFL history. To be fair, Bell did manage to finish 16th among running backs in fantasy scoring and had a month straight of top-10 finishes starting Week 9, but his overall performance was the literal definition of the word “meh.”
So why then am I calling him a boom? Well, there is some good news: Even with Frank Gore in house, I still expect Bell to flirt with 300 touches. That volume plus the improved Jets offensive line position him for another season of RB2 production. He isn’t sexy, but sexy doesn’t always win fantasy championships. Bell is going to see a workload that will make it tough for him to not be a top-15 option this year. And the best news is that you’re almost certainly going to get him at a value. — Jeff Ratcliffe
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Busts
Le'Veon Bell, RB
If you’re desperate, as in you’ve-been-in-self-isolation-so long-you-find-Alexa’s-voice-arousing desperate, Bell is your guy. Once lustfully sought after by this face for radio, he’s no longer worth the time or energy to swipe right.
Volume is king in fantasy, and the Jet will command an opportunity share in excess of 70%, but his dreadful inefficiency from 2019 downplays the statistical potential. Last year, he ranked RB43 in yards after contact per attempt (2.67), RB46 in yards created per carry and tallied a pedestrian 18.9 missed tackle rate. Equally discouraging, he totaled 28 red-zone touches, nearly half of what Todd Gurley compiled.
Frank Gore, who’s placed Father Time in a headlock some eight years running, will nibble on Bell’s 76.8% opportunity share from 2019. Toss in the possibility he could be dangled at the trade deadline and the workhorse isn’t worth saddling at his RB20 (37.5) ADP. New York’s improved offensive line is a plus, but expect roughly 1100-1200 total yards with 4-6 TDs, at most. — Brad Evans
Breshad Perriman, WR
Widely written off as a colossal bust, Perriman managed to somehow stick around in the league for three seasons before landing with the Bucs last year. Even then, it didn’t seem like he was long for the NFL with just 11 catches through the first 12 weeks of the season.
But then, something magical happened. Injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin thrust Perriman into the spotlight, and he surprisingly proved he was ready for primetime. Over those final five weeks of the season, Perriman found the end zone five times and scored the third-most fantasy points among wideouts.
The big question here is whether Perriman can carry that momentum over to 2020, or is he more of a one-hit wonder? His track record would suggest the latter, but recency bias in fantasy football could have a lot of folks entering fantasy draft season with a positive view of Perriman. I’ll give you that his upside is appealing, but the lackluster body of work that he’s put together in the NFL makes him a risky fantasy option in 2020. — Jeff Ratcliffe
Breakouts
Chris Herndon, TE
An esteemed member of this year’s All-ManCrush Team, Herndon is the ultimate masculine selection in the double-figure rounds. He could be the next Darren Waller, an under-the-radar tight end who could lead bargain seekers to end-season riches.
The Athletic reported in mid-May the Jets are itching to get Herndon back on the field. Gase and Co. have faith in the raw skill. Remember in his rookie campaign two seasons ago he strung together a respectable 39-502-4 line on just 12.1% of the team’s target share. That season he ranked top-10 in average depth of target, yards per catch and fantasy points per target among tight ends.
For a developing quarterback off a season in which he struggled mightily inside the red-zone (QB32 in red-zone completion percentage), Herndon presents an ideal big-bodied remedy. Darnold and the plus-sized weapon should click instantly. Gase’s play-calling and offensive pace are drags, but at the TE’s ADP (TE21, 158.3), he’s a clearance rack buy with mammoth profit potential. Hold your breath and draft with confidence. — Brad Evans
Sam Darnold, QB
The former first-rounder has certainly flashed at times in his short professional career, but he’s yet to emerge as a consistent fantasy option. But that isn’t really a knock on Darnold. Last season, he was throwing to one of the league’s worst wide receiver corps. Jamison Crowder is solid, but the rest of the group was a collection of just-a-guy types who did Darnold no favors.
The Jets remedied this problem in the offseason. While I’m not especially high on Perriman, his presence is an upgrade for Darnold. Likewise, the team drafted size-speed prospect Denzel Mims. With Perriman and Mims bookending Crowder, Darnold now has a very intriguing set of weapons. He’ll also have the added benefit of an improved offensive line.
I’m not sure we go as far as drafting Darnold in 1QB leagues, but he’ll be a player to keep an eye on if you like to stream at the position. He’s also an optimal target as your third quarterback in 2QB and superflex leagues due to the potential high ceiling he brings to the table. — Jeff Ratcliffe
