Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Las Vegas Raiders

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Latest Las Vegas Show.

Booms

Josh Jacobs, RB

Last year as a rookie, Jacobs was as spectacular as Mark Davis’ beautiful bowl cut. Fanalysts have strangely and oddly proclaimed DeAndre Washington’s late-season surge versus Tennessee, the L.A. Chargers and Denver is a harbinger of mediocrity to come for the second-year rusher. Sure, and Kanye West is completely fit to run for president.

Before his 2019 was cut short due to a shoulder setback, the former Alabama slammer bulldozed the opposition. On 64.6% of the opportunity share (20.1 touches/game), he racked 1,316 combined yards (101.6 total yards per game) and seven touchdowns, finishing RB13 in 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game. His secondary analytics were equally spectacular. He finished RB8 in yards after contact per attempt, No. 6 in total yards created and forced the highest missed tackle percentage (29.7) of any RB. He lived up to the billing, no matter what tenuous argument some cling to. 

Raiders GM Mike Mayock remarked in March “Phase 2” of Jacobs would include a workload increase in the passing game. If true, he’s unequivocally a RB1 in 12-team formats, no matter the scoring system. Keep in mind the Vegas offensive line should be one of the league’s stiffest after ranking inside the top-10 in most run-blocking metrics. 

If Jacobs slides into the early portion of Round 2 (RB11, 14.9 ADP), jump all over the opportunity. — Brad Evans

Darren Waller, TE

A wide receiver in a tight end’s body, Waller burst onto the fantasy scene last year with a second-place fantasy finish. He consistently flashed his 4.4 40-yard dash speed and racked up more receiving yards than all but one other tight end – Travis Kelce – and posted a position-leading five 100-yard games.

To be fair, Waller was essentially the Raiders' top receiving target last season. While he’s still the favorite to lead the team in targets, Las Vegas did upgrade their receiver corps with the additions of Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards in the draft. Still, Waller should have no problem feasting yet again. He’ll be one of the first five tight ends selected in this year’s fantasy drafts and is a threat to break into the elite tier. — Jeff Ratcliffe

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Busts

Henry Ruggs, WR

Similar to fellow AFC West speedster Tyreek Hill, the rookie is a blur. At 5-foot-11 and 188 pounds, he clocked a ridiculous 4.27 40-yard time at the combine. His quick-twitch acceleration, dependable hands, body control and route tree branches label him more than your traditional DeSean Jackson one-trick pony. If he defeats press coverage routinely, he’s sure to morph into a deadly post and slant receiver. Last year with Alabama he totaled a devastating 10.5 yards after contact per reception. 

Derek Carr is an accurate passer, albeit mostly in the short-to-intermediate field. He ranked No. 2 in adjusted completion percentage last season, though was only serviceable downfield (QB17 in deep-ball passer rating) and inside the red zone (No. 20 in red zone completion percentage). For Ruggs to be fantasy successful he must convert quick hits into chunk gains. Keep in mind, too, Jon Gruden’s conservative nature. The Raiders ranked No. 26 in pass percentage at 54.5. 

With Waller, Hunter Renfrow and Tyrell Williams eating into his share, Ruggs will be hard-pressed to lure 90-plus targets. Anything north of a 60-700-5 line would outperform my modest expectations. — Brad Evans

Hunter Renfrow, WR

He might not look like a professional athlete, but Renfrow proved he belongs in the NFL with a solid rookie campaign. Things got off to a somewhat slow start, but the Clemson product was able to close strong with back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes in the final two weeks of the season. Perhaps for that reason, Renfrow has some buzz as a late-round value.

There’s certainly some appeal here, but we also need to consider what the Raiders did in the draft with the selections of Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. While neither will threaten Renfrow’s role as the slot receiver in the offense, their presence along with Tyrell Williams will place a cap on Renfrow’s volume. It’s also important to note that Ruggs doesn’t figure to be a high-aDOT guy. So catching balls in the short an intermediate areas of the field will likely cannibalize some of Renfrow’s targets. That plus Renfrow’s relatively low ceiling really doesn’t offer much fantasy appeal, even in the late rounds of drafts. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

Hunter Renfrow, WR

In the deep recesses of fantasy drafts a PPR assassin patiently waits. Biding his time to emerge from the shadows to plunge daggers at WR3, he’s an ideal hired hand for those in challenging formats. 

Last season, the slot man established a solid late-season rapport with Carr, thriving on curls, slants and flat routes. Over his final seven games, he averaged the most fantasy points per snap (0.37) of any NFL wideout. During that stretch Renfrow hauled in 35 receptions (on 45 targets) for 490 yards and four touchdowns. Overall, he ranked No. 6 in fantasy points per snap, No. 3 in yards after contact per reception and totaled an attractive 28.4 red-zone target percentage. In many ways, he’s a poor man’s Cooper Kupp, a highly reliable catch accumulator whose quarterback trusts him inside the 20. 

Renfrow has competition, but if he and Carr can resume their budding on-field romance from November/December, 65-plus connections are possible. At his dirt cheap WR63, 164.8 ADP, you won’t find a sneakier bargain at wide receiver. — Brad Evans

Henry Ruggs, WR

One of the fastest players to enter the league in the recent memory – or ever, for that matter – Ruggs blazed a 4.27 40-yard dash at April’s combine. Yet, despite the impressive athletic profile, he enters the league with a relatively light resume with just 98 catches in his college career. Of course, he did manage to find the end zone on a whopping 24 of those catches. So yeah, he has crazy upside.

But the key for fantasy purposes is where Ruggs landed. Unlike some of the other top wideouts in this year’s rookie class, he’s actually in a good spot to produce immediately. The Raiders were extremely thin at receiver last season, so there’s a good chance Ruggs leads the wideouts in targets right out of the gate. That plus his massive ceiling makes him an intriguing target after the first 35 wideouts are off the board. While I don’t think he’s the best dynasty wideout in this year’s class, Ruggs is very much in the mix to lead all rookie wideouts in fantasy scoring this season. — Jeff Ratcliffe