Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Houston Texans

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: Bill O’Brien’s Brittle Bunch. 

Booms

Brandin Cooks, WR

The Chef Boyardee of wide receivers served up a heaping bowl of Spaghetti NOs last season. Limited by injuries, he rapidly deteriorated before gamers’ eyes, averaging a useless 3.1 receptions per game and 41.6 yards per game while scoring twice. His average depth of target (14.4 yards) was palatable, but (WR96 in catchable target percentage) Cooks and Jared Goff were rarely on the same page. 

With DeAndre Hopkins’ 150 vacated targets up for grabs, Cooks is a viable rebound candidate. Only two years removed from a banner 2018 in which he logged an 80-1,204-6 line and ranked No. 9 in total air yards, the 26-year-old (Yes, I’m just as shocked as you) is still in the midst of his physical prime and has much to prove. 

He may be one helmet-to-helmet blow away from retirement, but Cooks is worth the medium-risk/high-reward selection at his mid-draft ADP (WR38, 86.8). Given his age, proven track record and opportunity path, he could greatly outperform modest expectations. Tallying 70 catches for 1,100 yards and 5-7 TDs isn’t an outlandish claim. — Brad Evans

Will Fuller, WR

If Fuller could just stay healthy, he’d be one of the most dominant fantasy receivers in the league. In his pro career, he’s shown the ability to take over games. Over the last three seasons, he’s finished in the top-10 among wide receivers in fantasy scoring in 28% of his games. That’s outrageous.

Of course, he’s also missed a massive 20 games over those three years (22 in his career). Injury and Fuller go together like too much to drink and hangovers. I never like to predict injuries, but given his track record, there’s simply no way we can bank on Fuller playing a full season.

But there is at least some reason for optimism for fantasy purposes, as Fuller is positioned to be the presumptive No. 1 receiver in Houston with DeAndre Hopkins out of the mix. If you could guarantee Fuller plays all 16 games, he’d be a potential top-15 wide receiver. Unfortunately, we can’t make that assurance and have to bake the possibility for missed time into his draft day value. Fuller comes with risk, but he also offers the potential for some big time return on investment at his current ADP in the seventh round. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Busts

Will Fuller, WR

Here’s what we know about Fuller: When all tendons are intact, he’s a firm WR2 who chips in the occasional WR1 tally. However, when soft tissue issues crop up, he misses multiple games, rendering his rostering useless. In four seasons, he’s missed a whopping 22 games, though he’s averaged at least 9.9 fantasy points per contest in 0.5 PPR three consecutive seasons. He really is the epitome of boom or bust. 

With Hopkins now stiff-arming javelina in Arizona, Bill O’Brien has reportedly remodeled the offense stressing a socialist, spread-the-love scheme. Fuller has added branches to the route tree, but his 6.5 targets per game from 2019 may not climb as some may believe. Mix in the knack for injuries and he’s simply not worth the WR3 cost (WR33, 74.8). Diontae Johnson, Jarvis Landry and Cooks are better options at a nearly identical price point. — Brad Evans

Brandin Cooks, WR

The quintessential boom-or-bust fantasy wide receiver, Cooks essentially went bust for most of last season, as a concussion sidelined him midseason and he was never quite able to post one of his patented big games. The Rams decided to move on from Cooks this offseason, which marked the third time in his career that he’s been traded. This time, he lands on a Texans roster that was in need of some help with Hopkins now in Arizona.

While Cooks is a big-time downgrade from Hopkins, he does have a prime opportunity to contribute immediately. His downfield skillset meshes well with Deshaun Watsons’ game. But old dogs don’t learn new tricks, so don’t expect anything more than boom-or-bust WR4 production.

Cooks is only going 10 picks later than Fuller in ADP. If Fuller is able to stay healthy, the gap between the two will but much more sizable. Sure, Cooks will have a few big weeks, but good luck predicting when they come. Otherwise, he’s going to be maddeningly frustrating to own. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Breakouts

David Johnson, RB

Admittedly, labeling Johnson a “breakout” is weak sauce, but he at least deserves a mention somewhere in this space. After bolting off the blocks Weeks 1-6 last season in Arizona (102.2 total yards per game, 5 TDs), the rusher doused fantasy rosters in kerosene and lit a match. Handicapped by a balky back and bum ankle, he displayed the upfield cutting ability and burst of Betty White. Overnight, it seemed, he went from fantasy stud to softy, leaving bitter tastes in the mouths of all who continuously trotted him out. From Week 7 on, he scored once and failed to top 55 combined yards in a single game, eventually surrendering lead duties to Kenyan Drake. 

It’s hard to overlook Johnson’s comical RB58 standing in yards after contact per attempt (2.05) and 8.5% missed tackle rate. Both were funny bad, but O’Brien has remained unwavering in his commitment to feature Johnson as a three-down back this year. Heck, even some local beat writers are buying a renaissance. Aaron Reiss from The Athletic recently predicted the skilled RB will lead the team in targets and receptions. Spicy. 

With only Duke Johnson to fend off, Johnson should be able to secure his spot in the captain’s seat. It sounds cliché, but if he can stay healthy, 275-plus touches are a forgone conclusion. If you’re a dice-roller, target him in Round 4 (RB22, 44.5 ADP). — Brad Evans

Jordan Akins, TE

It’s tough to identify a true breakout on this roster. Akins doesn’t quite fit the bill, but he is at least intriguing following a solid 2019 campaign where he caught 36 balls for 418 yards and two scores. The Texans run a ton of 12-personnel with Akins on the field along with Darren Fells.

Technically, I do have Fells ranked ahead of Akins right now, but there’s a pretty big age gap between the two. Fells is currently 34 years old, while Akins is six years his junior. While he isn’t “young” by football standards, Akins is still on the upslope of his career and is positioned well to take another step forward this season. Of course, even with a step forward, Akins isn’t anything more than a deep streamer option in season-long fantasy. He does have a bit more appeal for DFS purposes, where he’ll be a punt option to target this year. — Jeff Ratcliffe